Over the past 14 games, the Royals are 7-7. While a .500 record isn’t bad by any means, the momentum the Royals had after taking two of three against Pittsburgh on the road has seemed to disappear after getting swept by the Detroit Tigers at home this week.
On Thursday, the Royals’ off-day, the Guardians beat the Twins. That victory clinched Cleveland a playoff berth and tied Detroit with Minnesota for the last AL Wild Card spot.
The Royals remain in the driver’s seat regarding the postseason.
According to Fangraphs, Kansas City’s playoff odds are 90.2% to make the postseason. That is 27.2% better than the Twins and 46.9% better than the Tigers. With nine games to go, Kansas City can clinch things if it takes care of business this weekend against the Giants and on the road against Washington and Atlanta.
That said, this hasn’t been the Royals’ best stretch of baseball this season.
Over the past 14 days, the Royals rank 17th in wRC+ with a mark of 85. That wRC+ is 14 points lower than their season average of 99 (though their season ranking overall in wRC+ is tied for 17th as well). In September, Royals hitters are posting a 77 wRC+, which ranks 27th in the league. Only the Pirates, Red Sox, and Rockies have been worse offensively this month.
These lackluster numbers are not surprising in the wake of Vinnie Pasquantino’s injury in late August.
Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel, acquired after the Pasquantino injury, have had their moments at the plate in Kansas City. Unfortunately, beyond Witt and Salvy, the Royals have failed to get much help from their regulars in the lineup (nine players have wRC+ marks under 100 this mark, and one, Paul DeJong, has a negative mark).
The Royals offense needs to get going to clinch a Wild Card spot.
Conversely, one could argue that everything else, including the bullpen, seems to be humming at the right time.
The fact that the bullpen may be a strength of this Royals squad this month may be jarring for jaded Royals fans who have made it a habit of bashing the bullpen whenever anything goes wrong with this club.
The Bullpen Has Thrived Over the Past Two Weeks
Over the past 14 days, the Royals bullpen has been one of the best groups in baseball, as seen in the Fangraphs table below.
As Royals fans see in the table above, this group ranks in the Top 10 in many important categories.
They rank 4th in bullpen fWAR, 7th in ERA, 2nd in FIP, 3rd in K/9, 6th in K-BB%, and first in HR/FB%. Regarding Statcast metrics, Royals relievers allow the 10th-lowest average launch angle on batted balls, the 7th-lowest hard-hit, and the third-lowest barrel rates. This shows that the Royals bullpen is striking out more batters, walking fewer of them, and keeping barrels and hard contact to a minimum.
That is a recipe for bullpen success, which the Royals have wanted since this offseason when they acquired Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and Will Smith to boost this group.
On an individual basis, here’s how Royals relievers have fared over the past two weeks.
Only two Royals relievers have struggled significantly over that period: Stratton and James McArthur. However, both Royals relievers are currently on the IL, and whether either will return to the Kansas City active roster down the stretch is questionable.
The Royals have seemed to settle in with Kris Bubic as their primary setup man and Lucas Erceg as their closer. Furthermore, the Royals have gotten surprising value from Daniel Lynch IV, who has been a stalwart since returning from Omaha and pitching exclusively in the bullpen. His 36.9% CSW is the third-best mark of Royals relievers over the past 14 days.
Lynch IV had arguably his best performance of the year on Thursday against the Tigers. He went 3.1 IP, allowed zero runs, zero walks, two hits, and struck out four.
The Royals have a plethora of options in the bullpen right now, and the group should have even more depth when Lorenzen returns (whether he goes directly to bullpen or he bumps Alec Marsh to a reliever role).
That’s something we couldn’t say around June when their bullpen ranked 26th in fWAR with a 0.0 mark.
Why Royals Fans Should Remain Optimistic About This Group Now and in 2025
The Royals’ bullpen hasn’t been the most substantial group in their history. However, many Royals fans are letting small samples and bad stretches color their view of this group and their recent performance.
After Long’s meltdown on Monday, it was common to see many Royals fans say, “See! 7th-worst bullpen in the league by the stats, bro!” Or after Erceg failed to keep the tie in the bottom of the 10th, in his second inning of work, some Royals fans were piping, “Royals bullpen blows it again!”
I get it. Seeing lost leads is tough. We want this team to close out a playoff spot, and the bullpen hasn’t been a strength for most of the year. Thus, it’s easy to focus on the bullpen as a weakness, even if the data shows that this group is gelling at the right time.
It’s easy to point to 2014 and 2015 and see how the Royals bullpen was successful. As Royals fans, we also want the same for this year’s group. However, many developments and changes from 2011 to 2013 had to happen for that group to reach those heights in 2014 and 2015.
Seeing the bullpen progress from disastrous levels in the second half of 2023 to solid levels recently is a hopeful sign. In addition, this group is not just built for a postseason run, and that’s it. This group still has years of club control and should welcome a healthy Hunter Harvey to the mix in 2025.
As long as the 2025 group stays healthy, it’s possible we could see something similar to the 2014-2015 bullpen with them.
That should make Royals fans hopeful that this bullpen can help the Royals not just hang on for a playoff spot but perhaps surprise in the postseason and set the club up nicely for a big 2025 and beyond.
Photo Credit: Ken Blaze USA TODAY Sports
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