The Royals avoided the sweep on Wednesday afternoon, beating the Twins 4-1 in the series finale. Cole Ragans was sensational as he went seven innings, struck out eight, and only allowed one walk and one run.
Ragans was the Royals’ star performer on the pitching end of things. When it came to hitting, Paul DeJong had a banner day.
The 31-year-old infielder acquired at the Trade Deadline from the White Sox collected three hits, a walk, and scored two runs. One of his three hits was his 20th home run of the season, an absolute bomb off of Twins starter Louie Varland (who had to start in place of Bailey Ober today).
In 10 games and 30 plate appearances with the Royals this season, DeJong is hitting .300 with a 1.000 OPS. He also has hit two home runs and collected five RBI. Between the Royals and White Sox in 2024, the former St. Louis draft pick has a slash line of .235/.285/.442 and has a .727 OPS in 393 plate appearances.
Royals GM JJ Picollo was expected to pick up a bat at the Trade Deadline, but DeJong was an unconventional choice.
He had been successful on the South Side this year (1.1 fWAR) after a sub-par 2023 (0.5 fWAR and .613 OPS) with the Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Giants. However, the Royals seemed tied to outfield trade candidates like Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Tommy Pham, and DeJong only played third base and shortstop with the White Sox. DeJong’s 30.6% K rate contrasted the Royals’ more “contact-heavy” approach this season.
Despite initially being an odd fit, DeJong arrived at a much-needed time, especially with the Royals trying to stay in the postseason race.
The Royals have gotten disappointing production from Maikel Garcia at third base this year. Also, while Michael Massey has been productive (102 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR), nagging injuries have sidelined him a bit this season, prompting a need for the Royals to seek more depth in the infield around Bobby Witt, Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino.
After Tuesday’s strong performance, should manager Matt Quatraro make DeJong a regular part of the Royals lineup for the rest of the season? Or is this just a hot stretch, and should Q continue to utilize DeJong judiciously off the bench like he’s done thus far?
Let’s look at DeJong’s profile and what makes sense, not just with DeJong but with other infielders on the Royal roster who could be affected.
DeJong Stands Out in Process+ (Though the Contact Is a Concern)
When looking at the Process+ rolling chart data, there is much to like about what DeJong has done this season, especially compared to a year ago.
With the Cardinals, Jays, and Giants, DeJong got off to a strong start and tanked in the last few months of the season. There has been an opposite trend this year, with DeJong’s power tool being much more consistent than in 2023.
Notice in August, DeJong’s power flipped negatively. That led to a massive decline in his rolling Process+, which started the year in the 110 range but fell to around the 60-70 range by the end of the year. That’s a primary reason why the White Sox were the only suitor for DeJong’s services this offseason (which only was a one-year, $1.75 million deal).
Based on the Process+ graph above, DeJong’s contact has always been an issue over the past two years. The lackluster contact ability trend correlates strongly with his plus-30% K rates in 2023 and 2024. Furthermore, DeJong’s decision value has been around average for the past two years, though it hovered more on the positive end this season than a year ago.
The most significant change has been the power, which has been above average and surpassed the 110 range at one point. That is a sign that DeJong’s power has been legitimate this year, a much-needed skill for a Royals lineup that ranks 17th in HRs hit in 2024.
DeJong is limited to third base thanks to Witt’s Gold-Glove caliber defense. However, the Royals have seen some rotation at third amidst Garcia’s struggles this year. Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson have also received innings at the hot corner when Garcia has the day off or is at second base.
Regarding Process+, here’s a look at Hampson and Frazier, Quatraro’s primary infield bench pieces.
As Royals fans can see, DeJong is a much better option off the bench than Hampson and Frazier. His contact lags behind the two, and Frazier has made much better decisions at the plate over the year. However, the power significantly outweighs Hampson and Frazier’s, pushing DeJong over the top.
(Though, to be fair, it seems like Hampson has seen more time in the outfield since DeJong was acquired, which makes sense when the Royals face left-handed starting pitchers).
Now, let’s look at Garcia and Massey’s Process+ charts:
Massey has been above average since July, but at least he’s been close to that 100-average line the past two months. There’s a consistency from his Process+ chart that probably plays into him hitting in the leadoff spot when he’s in the lineup.
On the other hand, Garcia has regressed heavily since mid-June, and his Process+ has been unable to bounce back despite still stellar contact ability. While Royals fans may hope that Garcia’s decision-making and power can return to those April and May trends, the season’s outlook looks bleak.
Who’s the Odd Man Out?
I believe Garcia and Frazier would be most affected by DeJong’s getting more at-bats.
Garcia is still young at 24 years old, and I think he will be better in 2025 and beyond than he’s shown since June this season. At this time, though, the Royals are competing for a playoff spot and must play the best players, period.
Frazier probably shouldn’t be in this discussion, but he has proven to be more consistent in his decision-making at the plate than both DeJong and Garcia. Plus, Frazier had a three-hit day today, much to the chagrin of Royals fans, who have been calling for the Royals to DFA Frazier for weeks.
Thus, let’s look at how they compare in more general metrics.
First, I thought some interesting trends emerged when one looked at their performance this year against right-handed pitchers via Fangraphs.
DeJong has been the best hitter of the group against right-handers, including 46 points better than Frazier (and that’s not including today). Garcia hasn’t been great with a 70 wRC+, but at least he’s sported the lowest K rate of the trio.
Let’s examine their performance this year against left-handed pitchers.
Garcia leads the trio with a 73 wRC+. It isn’t good, but it’s 20 points better than DeJong and 37 points better than Frazier. Considering Frazier is left-handed, Garcia being better is not a surprise. However, DeJong being so poor against lefties this year in most categories is a bit concerning.
Thus, the best solution for Quatraro may be to have Garcia play either third base or second base against lefty starting pitchers and have DeJong as the primary third baseman when they face right-handed starting pitchers. Garcia could earn at-bats when Massey either needs a day off or needs to transition from 2B to DH for a game or two.
According to Fangraphs, DeJong has undoubtedly been better than Garcia and Frazier at the plate since the All-Star Break. That said, Garcia’s defense and baserunning are valuable, and despite DeJong’s higher wRC+ in the second half, Garcia’s fWAR over that same time isn’t that far behind.
DeJong deserves more at-bats in August and September, and those at-bats should probably happen at third base, where his defense profiles are better (+1 FRV at 3B compared to -1 FRV at SS).
Does that mean Garcia sees more time on the bench in the next two months?
Yes, for now. That said, Garcia would still be the primary third or second baseman against lefties. Furthermore, if he gets back on track, he can give Massey more days at DH, which isn’t bad considering Massey’s back issues this season.
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A MLB hitter needs to be able to play. Massey has looked like the second coming of Mondesi.Garcia is younger and has a pretty good ceiling. Have him,work over the off season on his hitting and plug him as your every day 2b. Trade Massey before he loses any more value. Maybe he could go for a solid corner OF bat. Nothing flashy. High OBP, moderate BA, moderate power. Preferably a Charlie Lau disciple.
DeJong is a stop-gap measure. We need a real 3b…. I’m not asking for Brett or Schmidt. A good fielder who hits north of .270 and 25 HR and a .330 OBP would be adequate for a middle of the order spot.
Still waiting for management to tell Waters that, for him to come up, he needs to hit for average. The power will happen.
I agree about Garcia. He’s had a rough year, no doubt. However, he’s still 24, and he’s the best baserunner on the team (well other than Blanco of course). I think Garcia has shown some growth in his contact ability and minimizing the strikeouts and chases from last year, but I think working on his bat speed and continue to refine approach this offseason would help him get back to where we saw him back in May. The reality is that Garcia was never a high profile prospect in the system, so the reality is that we should think of him closer to Alcides Escobar (which isn’t fair either since he was a high profile prospect) than Ronald Acuna, Jr..
Trading Massey may be the right move this offseason. He’s improved in his ability to make contact this year, but I think his skills would be better utilized in another org and a different home ballpark. I also am concerned about how this back injury is expected to linger throughout his career. Unfortunately, that won’t help his trade value, which is why I think a club with a better lefty-friendly ballpark (Especially for HRs) needs to be the target so the Royals can maximize the return.
Agreed about DeJong. He’s really a next two month option and then he will go on his way. I think he was a shrewd move but they need to look at improving that position this offseason.
The days that DeJong and Frazier had yesterday are the kinds of surprise production that in retrospect can be keys to success in such heavily
contested postseason chases.
Agreed. The nice thing is that we have the depth that we don’t have to play these guys everyday, but still enough to where they can have a positive impact. I credit Q for utilizing a deep bench, which is something not a lot of Royals managers always embraced.