The Royals lost to the rival Twins for a second-straight night at Target Field, this time by a score of 13-3. This isn’t very reassuring, especially considering the Royals and Twins entered this series neck and neck in the AL Central division.
The Royals’ starting pitching has imploded in the first two games in Minneapolis, which has sunk Kansas City’s chances in both games right out of the gate.
On Monday night, despite being given a two-run lead in the second, Brady Singer allowed six runs on eight hits and two walks in five innings pitched.
Tonight, Seth Lugo was even worse. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) on nine hits and two walks in only four innings pitched. Thus, it’s unsurprising that the Twins won by five runs in game one and 10 in game two.
Kansas City still has playoff aspirations, but the Royals’ starting pitching’s recent rough patch isn’t a good sign.
The Royals have leaned heavily on their rotation to find overall success in 2024. According to Fangraphs, the rotation ranks third in fWAR and ERA going into Tuesday’s game. Those numbers will likely take a hit after tonight, which is disappointing considering how much hype the rotation received before the start of this crucial series at Target Field.
Thus, after the rough performances by Singer and Lugo, should Royals fans be worried about the rotation for the remainder of the season? Or are these recent struggles blips on the radar from the starting pitchers due to bad matchups and rough luck?
Let’s look at Singer and Lugo’s starts and how this rotation has performed since the All-Star Break.
Singer Getting Hit, But Still Generating Strikeouts
Singer had a bit of a weird start on Monday. Yes, he gave up six runs on eight hits. However, all the damage came in the second inning, and he struck out nine Twins batters in the loss.
One could argue that it was his worst start of the season.
The six earned runs allowed in five IP was the most since his June 11th start against the Yankees at Kauffman Stadium. Interestingly enough, Singer’s struggles against the Twins and Yankees were quite similar when one looks at the pitching breakdown from both starts via Pitcher List game logs.
Here’s a look at his start yesterday against Minnesota:
Now, here’s his start back in mid-June against the Bronx Bombers in Kansas City:
Singer struggled with his slider in both outings. He posted a 17.1% CSW with it on Monday and had a 20.8% CSW on June 11th, which isn’t much better. Hitters also connected more against the slider on Monday, as he gave up an ICR (ideal contact rate) of 60% (typically, anything above 40% in that category is not good).
Hard contact was an issue for Singer on Monday, and 94.1 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls against the Twins demonstrated that. That said, it’s not like Singer has been giving up home runs since the All-Star Break. In the second half, Singer has only allowed an HR/FB % of 7.1%, which is pretty respectable.
So why has Singer been giving up more runs than wanted recently?
He’s had rough batted-ball luck, as his BABIP is currently .326 in the second half. According to Fangraphs data of Royals starting pitchers after the All-Star Break, only Alec Marsh has had a worse BABIP, at .357. Marsh is currently working on pitch selection and shape in Triple-A Omaha.
Furthermore, on an xwOBA end, while he’s had some rough patches, for the most part, this season, Singer has kept his xwOBA under control. Even recently, the xwOBA hasn’t been as bad as the runs would indicate, meaning that Singer hasn’t gotten the best-batted ball luck.
A critical factor in Singer’s future could be his sweeper’s development and higher usage, which led to some success against the Twins. On Monday, he threw the sweeper 9.5% of the time and had a 33.3% CSW and 88.9% Strike rate on the pitch.
Based on PLV metrics, the sweeper has shown more promising pitch quality data this season than the slider.
If Singer wants to bounce back from his rough recent outing against Minnesota, throwing the slider less and sweeper more could be a step in the right direction in his next few starts.
Has Regression Come for Lugo?
Seth Lugo deserved his All-Star appearance. No pitcher in the American League was more dominant than Lugo, as he won 11 games, had a 2.48 ERA, and a 1.09 ERA in 20 starts and 127 IP before the All-Star Break.
After the All-Star Break, though, he has posted a 3.77 ERA in four starts and 28.2 IP. His K/BB ratio is only 2.14 in the second half, a far cry from the 3.87 mark he posted before the All-Star Break.
Command has been a significant issue in his most recent outings, evident in his last start against the Twins on Tuesday. He failed to paint the edges against Minnesota hitters and made many mistakes in the zone, resulting in Twins hits and runs.
It may be easy to brush off this recent start as just a blip on the radar for Lugo. However, he also had a rough start on August 6 at Kauffman, where he allowed six runs on six hits and four walks against the Red Sox.
As Royals fans can see, Lugo couldn’t generate strikes against Boston on the whiff and called-strike variety. A 19.8% CSW is brutal, even for a pitcher like Lugo, who’s not much of a strikeout artist (unlike Cole Ragans).
According to Savant data, Lugo’s CSW was 25% tonight, slightly better than what he produced on August 6th. Nonetheless, it isn’t exactly “stellar” by any means, and it’s deflated by the fact that he gave up an average exit velocity of 90 MPH on batted balls.
The reality is that Lugo may be feeling the high number of innings at this point in the season.
He’s already pitched 159.2 innings this year, 13.1 more IP than in 2023, which was a previous career high. Additionally, Lugo has succeeded this season despite lackluster Statcast percentiles. It may be a matter of regression finally coming to fruition for the 34-year-old right-hander.
Two bad starts don’t make a half or even a season for Lugo. He still has a 3.04 ERA despite his brutal outing against the Twins on Tuesday.
However, I think Royals fans can maybe start to feel more pessimistically about Lugo’s Cy Young chances, especially with a more challenging schedule in August and September looming for the Royals.
What About the Rest of the Starting Pitchers?
Regarding the Royals rotation as a whole, this Fangraphs data table below shows how each has fared individually since the All-Star Break.
Surprisingly, the most effective pitcher in the Royals rotation in the second half has been Singer, who has a 2.80 FIP and 0.9 fWAR in 31.2 IP. Lugo ranked second with a 0.4 fWAR, but his 3.98 FIP is much less impressive than Singer’s (and likely inflated after Tuesday’s rough outing).
Ragans and Michael Wacha are intriguing cases.
Ragans has a 3.80 ERA and has mainly been hurt by the long ball in the second half. His 1.52 HR/9 is the second-highest mark of this sample of Royals starting pitchers (Michael Lorenzen has a higher mark but only has two starts). That partially negates his substantial strikeout numbers, as he has posted a 9.51 K/9, the best mark of Royals starting pitches after the All-Star Break.
(Those strikeout numbers could be credited to his dominant changeup this year.)
Wacha’s HR/9 isn’t far behind at 1.42. However, Wacha hasn’t been striking guys out like Ragans. Wacha’s K/9 is only 5.97. As a result, his FIP and xFIP are high at 4.85 and 4.52. That deflates the 2.56 ERA he has posted in five starts and 31.2 IP in the second half (and overall strong numbers since the start of May).
Singer and Lugo have been the starting pitchers most under the radar by fans, and the brutal Twins series in Minnesota has amplified their struggles. Their issues on the mound after the All-Star Break are legitimately concerning. Based on the data and the increase in sweeper usage, though, I feel slightly more optimistic about Singer down the stretch than Lugo.
On the other hand, Singer and Lugo shouldn’t be the only Royals starting pitchers fans should be worrying about.
The rest of the Royals rotation could be subject to a harsh regression reality in the next two months. Unfortunately, that could cost Kansas City a chance in the postseason.
Photo Credit: Michael Dwyer | AP
[…] I had some concerns that Lugo (and other Royals starting pitchers) would be wearing down once we entered September. That was mainly fueled by the fact that Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, and Brady Singer hadn’t put up this kind of innings load before (or, in the case of Wacha, a long time ago). […]