The Royals took three of four from the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians this weekend at Kauffman Stadium. It was a nice finish to a month that was frustrating for Royals fans.
Initially, it looked like the Royals would have their hands complete with the Guardians, especially after a lackluster series against the Marlins to begin the week (I attended all three Marlins games at Kauffman). The Royals did take two of three from Miami, but they were on the verge of losing two of three until a big bottom of the 8th helped power them to a 5-1 win on Wednesday.
The Royals looked like a completely different team against the Guardians over the past four games.
Kansas City outscored Cleveland 20-13 over the four-game span to improve their record to 12-15 in June and 47-39 overall. Granted, the Guardians still have a sizeable seven-game lead over the Royals in the AL Central, and their +98 run differential dwarfs the Royals’ impressive +55 mark. However, a Guardians series win at Kauffman would’ve probably been the dagger in the Royals’ Central division hopes for the remainder of the season.
Now, it seems like the Royals have a new life and a prime opportunity to capitalize on this momentum. An upcoming series against a 42-42 Rays team at home still looms this week.
The past four games between the Royals and Guardians have also showcased the tension between the two clubs’ fanbases, especially on social media. It’s not a secret that Guardian fans (and, to a lesser extent, Twins fans) have been quite dismissive of the Royals’ surprising start to the 2024 season.
In April, Guardians fans claimed that the Royals’ starting pitching was a fluke. In May, it was that the Royals didn’t play anyone tough, and their record against teams over .500 proved that. In June, the regression in the record was a sign of things to come for the remainder of the 2024 season.
In July, after seeing their beloved club lose three of four in Kansas City to close out the month, the Royals are “cheating” because they are hitting so much better at Kauffman than on the road.
It’s a ridiculous claim, mainly because this Cleveland fan thinks that the Royals have the same sophistication as the Astros organization, which executed its legendary cheating scandal in 2017 en route to a World Series title. This Royals organization hasn’t had a winning record since 2015. Kauffman Stadium has been around since 1973 and was renovated in 2009, 16 years ago.
As a Royals fan, I am flattered that this Cleveland fan thinks the Royals are as sophisticated and technologically savvy as the Astros. This would show that we’ve significantly progressed as an organization since Dayton Moore’s days.
I believe JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro are doing the right things to get this organization back in the more “modern” age and ahead of the curve. However, this cheating scandal seems ridiculous and beyond their skills and expertise (especially since they could’ve done it last year and not lost 106 games).
Nonetheless, the Guardians’ disdain shows one thing: Guardians fans are starting to dislike Royals fans, and the feeling seems mutual on the Kansas City side.
Why a Cleveland-Kansas City Rivalry Makes Sense
In previous posts, I have had difficulty discerning who the Royals’ true rival should be since they don’t have an apparent rivalry like Cardinals-Cubs, Giants-Dodgers, or Yankees-Red Sox.
The Guardians and Royals should’ve always been natural rivals in the Central division, though that possibility did not become a reality until 2024.
They share a state with another NL Central club with a more substantial history of success (the Cardinals for the Royals; the Reds for the Guardians). They are both small market clubs with limited payrolls that must scout their way to success. Until recently, they often had difficulty retaining their star players (Jose Ramirez for the Guardians; Bobby Witt, Jr. for the Royals). They also have fickle fan bases that are more willing to dive into their local NFL team if the MLB club is not performing, which shows in the attendance numbers.
John Sherman was also once a minority owner in the Guardians organization, and he seems intent on similarly building the Royals, especially in pitching development and investment at the Major League level. However, the Guardians’ spending at the Major League level has decreased since Sherman left, making one wonder if Sherman was the one boosting the club in ways the Dolan family simply can’t (or won’t).
One has to wonder, especially if things get tighter between the Royals and Guardians down the stretch if Sherman will make it known that he wants the Royals to “pass” the Guardians in the division (and not simply settle for a Wild Card spot) for “personal” reasons (i.e., hold “gloating” rights over his former club).
Lastly, the Royals as teams are built similarly, especially on the hitting and defensive end.
On the offensive end, the Guardians have a star (Ramirez) and a couple of dependable bats (Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan). However, they’ve had a disappointing campaign from one infielder (Andres Gimenez), and the rest have been streaky.
The Royals have that similar star (Witt), a couple of dependable bats (Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez), a disappointing infielder (Maikel Garcia), and a streaky remainder of the lineup.
They also have the same approach to plate discipline, as seen in the plate discipline ranks via Fangraphs.
- O-Swing%: Royals 4th-highest; Guardians 6th-highest
- Swing%: Guardians 4th-highest; Royals 8th-highest
- SwingStr%: Royals 9th-highest; Guardians 12th-highest
- Contact%: Royals 5th-highest; Guardians 8th-highest
There is often a minuscule difference between the Royals and the Guardians in the abovementioned categories. Therefore, the Guardians on a hitting end are not some dramatically different group from the Royals. They are a more seasoned group that is a little more polished now.
That slight Guardians hitting advantage could decrease dramatically once the Royals get a little more polish and/or the necessary help they need from either Omaha or the trade market.
On a defensive end, the Royals and Cleveland rank closely in many different metrics, especially DRS, as highlighted today in a SIS Baseball tweet that ranked the top defensive clubs this season (Cleveland ranks 2nd and Kansas City ranks 4th).
This year’s stellar defense from the Guardians has helped Cleveland compensate for shaky starting pitching. Conversely, the defense has helped mask the Royals’ bullpen struggles this season. How they address their respective pitching deficiencies by the August trade deadline will be a significant factor in either club’s ability to make and succeed in the postseason.
Furthermore, how they improve in those areas will also give an idea of who has the advantage in their final two matchups of the year, which both come after the Trade Deadline (August 26th-28th in Cleveland for four games; September 2-4 in Kansas City for three).
Does This Rivalry Have Long-Term Potential?
The Royals have struggled to maintain a rivalry within the division, for the division has failed to maintain consistency over the past decade.
The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox have bounced between competitive and rebuilding modes over that period. Minnesota is a little closer geographically to Kansas City than other Central Division teams. Still, the Twins seem to have a stronger rivalry with Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland than the Royals due to the Twins’ upper Midwest geography and proximity to those teams, as well as a more recent competitive history with them.
However, it seems like Cleveland and Kansas City are building not just in the same way but at the right time. They have the horses at the Major and Minor League levels to make this rivalry one that could last for at least the next half-decade.
The Royals are in year two of Matt Quatraro’s regime as manager and are seeing that upward trend after a 106-loss season. The Guardians have surprised under new manager Stephen Vogt, whose energy and managing style have rejuvenated this squad after a lackluster final season under former manager Terry Francona. Both managers will compete for the AL Manager of the Year award by the season’s conclusion.
In addition, the Guardians and Royals have stars in Ramirez and Witt, respectively, who will be with their respective clubs for a while. Ramirez is under contract until 2028, while Witt is guaranteed to be in Kansas City until 2030, the first year he can opt out of the massive extension he signed this offseason. That kind of star power for both the Guardians and Royals will only add fuel to the fire between both fanbases over the next few seasons, at the very least.
Lastly, Royals and Guardian fans have that one “key” moment that has pushed the disdain to even greater levels this year. That moment was on Saturday when Jhonkensy Noel hit a foul ball that somehow was called fair, resulting in a two-run home run that changed the momentum of the game (which resulted in the Royals’ lone loss this weekend).
The egregious call outraged Royals fans in the stadium and online and was highly disputed by the Royals’ broadcast team at the time (it also was frequently referenced on Sunday in the series finale broadcast on Bally Sports Kansas City).
This past weekend, the Guardians-Royals series was probably the most memorable series of the season at the K. Additionally, the feud between the two fanbases will only get more intense as the season progresses, significantly if the gap narrows in the AL Central.
The Guardians’ upcoming series against the last-place White Sox, which is from Tuesday through Thursday at Progressive Field, should preserve the Guardians’ lead in the AL Central. However, their schedule gets significantly more challenging in July (unlike the Royals’, which is a bit easier than in June).
It’s taken a while for the Royals and Guardians to be both good in the division and at one another’s throats in the heart of the baseball season.
As a Royals fan, I am all for it and hoping that this rivalry between Kansas City and Cleveland is something we can look forward to as a Royals fanbase for a good while beyond 2024.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Mr. O’B, I definitely feel a rivalry between R’s and Guards.The G’s lineup is full of guys with histories of clutch hittingagainst KC. I don’t know if that’s true statistically, but it sureas hell feels that way. Now that Miggy Cabrera has finally retired, no hitter in all ofMLB scares me more than J-Ram. I was dreading Cleveland coming to the K and I was a nervouswreck Thursday night, chewing my fingernails beyond nubs.
I kept wondering how and which of the G’s would break ourhearts again. I was surprised to find myself guessing JoshNaylor rather than Ramirez.
That was a thrilling victory, the series win was amazing andI am looking forward (apprehensively) to what could be adramatic late August-early September showdown. I just hope at least some of my nails have grown back by then’cause I will definitely need them to get me through.
I totally agree with everything you said. J-Ram and Naylor definitely feel like players who have constantly been foils to the Royals in the past. The fact that the Royals were able to limit both of them (somewhat) is encouraging, though I imagine it won’t be as easy when the Royals visit Cleveland for a four-game set in August.