We are 16 days away from Opening Day, and as I talked about in my most recent post, some recent transactions are starting to make the 2024 Opening Day roster a little more transparent.
I will release my roster predictions over the next few weeks, with separate posts focusing on the pitching staff and position players. I imagine there will be two predictions this week and another during the week of Opening Day. If the roster remains unclear a few days before Opening Day (which feels unlikely, but one never knows), I might release another more streamlined post regarding my Royals roster predictions.
Thus, in this post, I will look at which Royals pitchers currently in camp will make the Opening Day rotation and bullpen and which ones are on the outside looking in but still could compete for a spot if they finish the spring strong.
Starting Rotation
Predictions: Michael Wacha (Opening Day), Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer, and Jordan Lyles
In the mix: Daniel Lynch IV
Frankly, this is probably the most clear the Royals’ rotation has been in years.
It makes sense after the free-agent acquisitions of Wacha and Lugo. That said, Ragans appears to be on the cusp of being an “ace” this year, as he not only finished the 2023 strong in Kansas City, but across the league, especially after one scout identified him as a “left-handed deGrom”.
While Singer didn’t have the best season in 2023, he is working on additional secondary offerings this spring. He had a rough outing in his latest start against the A’s, giving up six runs on seven hits in 2.1 IP. Still, with more tools in his pitch arsenal and less pressure this season to carry the rotation, Singer may have a more successful campaign (even if he won’t ever live up to that first-round draft hype).
The fifth spot is the big issue in the rotation that needs to be resolved.
Currently, Jordan Lyles is the favorite, primarily because of his veteran status and the fact that the Royals are paying him to be in the rotation (he is in the last year of his deal). However, Lyles tweaked his back in a “B” league game on March 9th, and it’s unclear when he will return to pitch this spring.
If Lyles is unavailable for Opening Day, Daniel Lynch will likely get a shot in the fifth spot.
Lynch has had plenty of opportunities to capture that last spot this spring, but unfortunately, the numbers haven’t been great. In four appearances and nine innings pitched in Cactus League play, he has a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 1.00 K/BB ratio (4 K to 4 BB).
The four-seam velocity has been an area of focus this spring, especially after averaging 92.6 MPH on the pitch in 2023, a 1.4 MPH decrease from 2022, according to Savant. The velocity has been on the lower end this spring (91-92 MPH), which isn’t encouraging. It’s hard to tell, though, if that’s going to be Lynch’s velocity going forward or simply Lynch getting ramped up, as he alluded to in an interview with Preston Farr of “Farm to Fountains.”
I am not ready to put Lynch in the rotation until we receive more information on Lyles. However, if Lyles starts the season on the IL or perhaps misses more time due to this back injury and is required to begin the year in extended Spring Training, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lynch start the season in the Royals’ rotation.
Bullpen
Predictions: Will Smith, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, James McArthur, John Schreiber, Matt Sauer, Alec Marsh, and Josh Taylor
In the Mix: Lynch, Anthony Veneziano, Angel Zerpa, Luis Cessa, Sam Long, Carlos Hernandez, and John McMillon
The bullpen is a bit more complicated than the rotation, but only a couple of spots remain that feel genuinely “open.”
Smith, Anderson, Stratton, and Schreiber all feel like “locks” to make the Royals’ Opening Day roster. Smith and Stratton were acquired via free agency and Anderson and Schreiber were brought to Kansas City via trade (from Atlanta and Boston, respectively). Those four will be crucial to improving a Royals bullpen that ranked 29th in reliever ERA in 2023.
McArthur also feels like a lock, especially after a stellar finish to 2023 and a robust Cactus League campaign. McArthur is posting a 1.42 ERA in three outings and 6.1 IP regarding the latter. He has only allowed three hits, one run, one walk, and eight strikeouts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see McArthur run away with the closer’s job at some point in 2024, though it’s likely Smith will get the first shot at the job due to his veteran status.
The Royals selected Sauer in the Rule 5 Draft, and though he hasn’t been “great,” he’s been good enough to earn a spot in the bullpen as a low-leverage, long-innings reliever. In four outings, Sauer is posting a 1.50 ERA (which is good) and 1.67 WHIP (not as good). That includes a 2.67 K/BB ratio (8 K to 3 BB).
For the Royals to keep Sauer on the 40-man roster, they need him to be on the active roster for the 2024 season, or else he needs to be returned to the Yankees (the organization that drafted him). If the Royals had lower aspirations this season, keeping Sauer and living through the growing pains would be easier. However, the Royals want to compete for an AL Central crown, so Sauer must produce out of the bullpen to stay in Kansas City.
That leaves two spots in the bullpen. As of now, I see the Royals going to Alec Marsh and Josh Taylor, who had rough 2023 seasons in Kansas City but have shown tremendous growth in Arizona.
Marsh gives the Royals the kind of hybrid flexibility Sauer has but is a little more proven, especially in the long relief role.
Last year, Marsh posted a 3.92 ERA in 39 IP as a long reliever, according to Fangraphs. That is a stark improvement from the 7.64 ERA in 35.1 IP as a starter. While it’s unlikely that Marsh will get as many set opportunities to be the Royals “bulk innings reliever” as he did down the stretch in 2023, his ability to go and be successful in multiple innings gives him an edge over other Royals bullpen options.
This spring, Marsh has pitched the most innings of any Royals pitcher in Cactus League play (10 IP). Over that sample, he has performed well, sporting a 0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 3.00 K/BB ratio. He has also been throwing his fastball in the 97 MPH range, which fits nicely in the bullpen.
While Spring Training numbers are just that, it’s still impressive to see how Marsh has responded to the Royals coaching staff after a horrendous 2022 season in Northwest Arkansas (7.32 ERA in 114.1 IP). Because of that, it feels like Marsh will get rewarded with an Opening Day roster spot.
For that last spot, I went with Taylor here, though I think if McMillon can make some more outings down the stretch, it could go to McMillon.
Undoubtedly, I would prefer the fireball-throwing righty over Taylor, who wasn’t very good in his Royals debut in 2023 before being shut down to injury. My only issue is that McMillon moved super fast through the Royals system last year and had to be shut down due to injury. It would make sense for the Royals to treat him with kid gloves and give him some time in extended Spring Training and in Omaha and make him the first reliever to be called up once one struggles.
Taylor probably doesn’t have a future with the Royals beyond this season (if he makes it through), while McMillon could be the closer of the future (if McArthur doesn’t capture it first). Thus, it would make sense to treat McMillon more delicately and not repeat the same mistakes they made with Dylan Coleman (whom they put too much pressure on too quickly, and he struggled with it).
On the other hand, Taylor is no slouch. Taylor’s xERA of 4.83 was much better than his 8.13 ERA indicated last year. Furthermore, Taylor also sported a K rate of 31.3% and a whiff rate of 30%, both above the league average. Granted, the lefty has to figure out how to lower the hard contact (54.2% hard-hit rate in 2023), but it seems he’s been doing a better job this spring in Arizona.
Taylor has a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five outings and five innings pitched. He has struck out five batters and hasn’t walked one, which is an even more encouraging sign that he can put his rough 2023 behind him.
There’s still some Cactus League games to go. That said, to begin the season, Taylor has done enough to earn a spot as a left-handed option out of the bullpen in low-leverage situations.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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