“Reporter Jottings”: Royals Sign Will Smith; Rule 5 Position Player Selections; And Thoughts on Ohtani’s Signing

Sundays in Kansas City are typically devoted to the Chiefs, especially from September to January/February. However, the Royals made some big news on Sunday morning, not too long after Shohei Ohtani commanded the baseball world, announcing his record-breaking, 10-year $700-million deal with the Dodgers.

With so much to discuss, I decided it would be good to utilize a “Jottings” post for this Sunday’s article. In this edition, I focus on the Royals’ latest bullpen acquisition; the position players the Royals selected in the Rule 5 Draft last week (I focused mostly on pitching in my last post); and thoughts on what the Ohtani deal means for small-market clubs like the Royals in the future.

Royals Sign Will Smith to 1-year, $5 Million Deal

Improving the bullpen has been identified as a priority this offseason for JJ Picollo and the Royals’ front office. On Sunday, the Royals got closer to helping fix that issue, as they inked the 34-year-old Smith to a one-year deal.

Smith wasn’t necessarily viewed as a “big-name” bullpen option for the Royals this offseason (Ryne Stanek has been one of the more popular names thrown out there). That said, he brings the skills and pedigree to help improve a Royals bullpen that finished near the bottom of the league in most categories.

The former Royal had an up-and-down season for the Rangers in 2023.

While he did win a World Series title and was a key part of the bullpen in the postseason, he still posted a 4.40 ERA in 60 appearances and 57.1 IP, which was his highest ERA since a 4.50 mark during the 2020 COVID-affected season. Smith started the 2023 season as the Rangers’ closer, as he netted 22 saves for Texas last year. However, he had some second-half struggles in the role (6.12 ERA after the All-Star break), and he eventually ceded the closer’s spot to Jose Leclerc and at times Aroldis Chapman (also a former Royal).

Even though his ERA didn’t look impressive, Smith still posted a 1.1 fWAR, his best mark since 2019 with the Giants, and his 3.28 xERA and 3.36 FIP were more respective marks. He also generated a 3.24 K/BB ratio, which would’ve been the third-best mark of Royals relievers with 20 or more IP last season (behind only James McArthur and Angel Zerpa).

When looking at the quality of his pitches via PLV, he still generated solid PLV scores, though his pitches aren’t elite by any measure. His breaking pitches proved to be solid offerings last season, especially his slider, which has been his primary pitch for the past two seasons.

In addition to posting a 5.03 PLV last year (which was slightly above the league average), Smith posted a 5.19 PLV on his slider and a 5.11 PLV on his curveball, both encouraging numbers.

Below is a look at how his slider and curve fared via GIFs and notice that when both breaking offerings are located properly (i.e. low in the zone) they can be challenging breaking pitches for opposing hitters.

Will Smith SL & CB-2023

Smith has seen a bit of a velocity dip in his four-seamer, as it only averaged 92.4 MPH, which ranked in the 24th percentile, according to Savant. On the flip side, his chase rate was 33.7%, which ranked in the 93rd percentile.

The nice thing about his high chase rate too is that it’s been something that’s remained relatively stable over his career, especially with his breaking stuff, which can be seen via the Stacast chart below.

It was also encouraging to see Smith see an uptick in fastball chase rate, which shows that he’s commanding the four-seamer properly, even if it doesn’t have premium velocity or pitch quality.

Smith will likely compete for the closer’s job in 2024, though it appears that Matt Quatraro wants to keep their options open in the ninth inning (at least to start the season). It does feel like the Royals may go after one more proven reliever in the free-agent market before Spring Training, but right now, the bullpen is already shaping up to be a lot better than what it was in 2023.

In addition to Smith, the Royals will also have McArthur, John McMillon, and Nick Anderson competing for innings in the 8th and 9th. Furthermore, Carlos Hernandez and Taylor Clarke will have more lower-leverage opportunities in the middle innings, which suits them better after they struggled in high-leverage roles in 2023. Don’t be surprised to see Hernandez and Clarke boost their value in the first half of 2024 and perhaps be trade candidates by the August deadline.

Adding Smith, Anderson, and another arm in free agency allows the Royals to maximize the trade value of the current arms on their 40-man roster, while also helping the bullpen get better overall in 2024.

Joe Gray, Jr. and Ryan Fitzgerald Highlight Royals’ Minor League Rule-5 Picks

I have talked about the arms the Royals acquired in both the Major and Minor League portion of the Rule 5 Draft last week.

However, two position players who were selected in the Minor League portion should provide some level of intrigue to Royals fans for 2024, even if it’s unlikely that they make an impact at the Major League level in 2024 or beyond.

Gray Jr. comes over from the Brewers organization where he was once the No. 12 prospect in the Brewers system back in 2022, according to Baseball America. Gray feels like the typical Royals prospect, as he is known for his dynamic tools and athleticism but has been unable to put it together at the plate as a professional.

Here’s what BA said about him in their scouting report of him before 2022:

Gray’s free-swinging habits got him into trouble early in his career, but he did a better job of managing his at-bats in Low-A, allowing his above-average raw power to play in games. His chase tendencies and swing holes became more of an issue after his promotion and after the season in the Arizona Fall League. Gray’s defense never went into a slump. His speed and arm strength are both plus tools, with his instincts in center field giving him a chance to be a plus defender.

Joe Gray, Jr. Scouting Report; 2022; Baseball America

Last year, Gray saw some small progress in High-A ball, his third time at the level in the Brewers system. In 101 games and 440 plate appearances at High-A ball, he slashed .245/.305/.378 and collected 11 home runs, 57 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. He struggled in a small stint at Double-A, as he hit .054 with a 43.6% K rate in 39 plate appearances.

There’s no question that the contact and whiff issues will be a concern in his likely transition to Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season. That being said, the raw toolset is impressive and jumps out, especially when one watches highlights of him.

I am curious to see if the Royals can help Gray turn it around much like toolsy prospect Tyler Tolbert did last year when he struggled in High-A Quad Cities in 2022 but fared much better in Double-A in 2023.

While Gray is a project, he is one worth taking a flier on. It’ll be intriguing to see if Drew Saylor and the Royals hitting development team can help Gray finally live up to his once-massive potential.

The other Royals Minor League Rule-5 position player pick was Ryan Fitzgerald, who was previously in the Red Sox organization. Fitzgerald has been known for tearing it up in Spring Training for the Red Sox, but he wasn’t able to transition that strong performance to a spot on the Red Sox’s 40-man roster over the past couple of seasons.

As a 29-year-old in Triple-A Worcester, Fitzgerald slashed .261/.345/.484 in 369 plate appearances and collected 12 home runs, 56 RBI, and 9 stolen bases in 95 games. Fitzgerald is kind of the polar opposite of Gray in the sense that he doesn’t possess eye-popping tools, but he does a lot of the little things very well and is versatile in the field.

Here’s what Baseball America said about Fitzgerald after the Royals selected him in the Rule 5 Draft:

A cult-hero with Triple-A Worcester, Fitzgerald is a late bloomer that has played all over the field the last few seasons. He hit .261/.345/.484 with 12 home runs for the WooSox. Fitzgerald has just fringe-average raw power but he gets the most of his contact with good launch angles. He consistently hits the ball in the air to his pull side on his best contact. He’s a little aggressive and will get drawn into chases out of the zone but looks like a nice get in the minor league portion for the Royals. 

“9 Minor League Rule 5 Picks That Caught Our Attention” by Geoff Pontes and JJ Cooper; Baseball America

The Royals are pretty flush in the infield in the upper levels and at the Major League level with not just Bobby Witt, Jr. but Maikel Garcia, Nick Loftin, Michael Massey, and the newly acquired Garrett Hampson (though Hampson probably will play more outfield).

That said, Royals fans shouldn’t sleep on Fitzgerald, who could be a late-bloomer who could surprise if given the opportunity with the Royals in some capacity in 2024.

Ohtani Signing Shows Importance of Farm System and Expanded Playoffs For Royals

One of the common things I have among Royals fans on X (i.e. Twitter) has been the frustration of the lack of a “salary cap” in baseball which basically furthers the distance between the rich clubs and poor clubs in Major League Baseball.

In the eyes of many, Ohtani’s massive $70 million AAV deal (which was more than some clubs’ entire payroll last season) only makes the game less competitive and worth tuning out, especially among Kansas City sports fans who are frustrated by the Royals’ constant losing since the 1994 strike.

I get it. It doesn’t feel great that the Royals will never have a shot at a superstar like Ohtani unless something dramatic happens (you could’ve said that about the Chiefs pre-Mahomes honestly). But does that mean the Royals will never have a chance to compete again due to the “unfair” financial structure of baseball compared to other American professional sports leagues?

That I’m not ready to buy just yet.

First off, the key to the Royals winning again, and being a consistent winner going forward, will rest on the development of their farm system under Picollo or whoever leads them in the future.

It’s funny how many Royals fans wanted the Royals to be built in a style that was similar to the Rays, Orioles, Guardians, and Brewers when Dayton Moore was let go.

Well, the Royals are really doing that under Picollo: They prioritized maximizing money throughout the MLB draft; were active in the Rule 5 Draft this year; spent serious money in the International Market, especially on talent in Latin America; and have traded veterans with team-friendly deals for prospect capital or talent that needs a fresh start, etc (i.e. Cole Ragans and Nelson Velazquez).

And yet, when the Royals have begun following that Rays/Guardians model, fans are clamoring for more free agent spending like the Royals are ready to contend now like it’s 2013 all over again. Sure, that aggressive push resulted in two pennants, but it also hamstrung the farm system after the “run” ended.

The Royals are making the right moves to build this club into a long-term winner in a division that looks very open. Remember, this is Picollo’s second year without Moore’s influence, so he deserves patience for at least another year or two.

This leads to the second point: The expanded playoffs are the key for a team like the Royals to break through and win a title.

Look at the Diamondbacks who lost 100+ games in 2021 and ended up winning in an NL Pennant through a young core and a shrewd combo of veteran pitchers and position players who ended up having solid seasons. The Royals could be the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks as soon as 2025 if they can win the Central Division, which isn’t a far-fetched possibility.

The White Sox are rebuilding. The Guardians could be doing the same if they trade Shane Bieber as expected. The Twins could regress if they are hit by the injury bug as has been common for them in the past half-decade. The opportunity is there for the Royals to compete in this division as soon as 2025 if things break right. This isn’t like the Colorado Rockies who are in the NL West and with an even more bleak outlook for 2024 and beyond with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks only getting better, and the Giants expected to follow suit.

Winning in Major League Baseball doesn’t require a team to spend a bunch on free agents or trade the farm for one guy.

The goal should be for the Royals to get enough talent to “make the dance” and see how it plays out in October, especially for now. After all, since 2010, the Royals have as many World Series titles as the Dodgers over that timespan and actually more than the Yankees. Even last year with a “superteam”, the Dodgers couldn’t escape from the divisional round.

It’s funny to see some Royals fans complain last postseason that the “best” teams were not advancing in the postseason and that expanded playoffs were bad for the game. Limiting the playoff field would make baseball into European soccer where it’s the same four teams competing for a league championship every season.

Until a more structured/strict luxury tax or salary cap is implemented though, small-market baseball fans, especially Royals fans, should be cheering for expanded playoffs and dark horse teams like the Diamondbacks making runs like they did last year.

It’s how the Royals will be able to win another title, even if they cannot ever afford a player like Ohtani in the club’s lifetime.

Photo Credit: Sam Hodde/Getty Images

7 thoughts on ““Reporter Jottings”: Royals Sign Will Smith; Rule 5 Position Player Selections; And Thoughts on Ohtani’s Signing”

Leave a comment