The Royals roster construction is close to being done, especially with pitchers and catchers reporting to camp in Surprise, Arizona on Valentine’s Day. While there still are plenty of free agents remaining on the market, including relievers, it doesn’t feel likely that the Royals will go much over their projected $113 million payroll by that February 14th date.
Early this offseason, Royals GM JJ Picollo identified the bullpen as an area where they wanted to add and improve upon for the 2024 season. The goal made sense, especially for a unit that ranked 29th in ERA and 27th in WHIP in 2023.
This winter, the Royals have added veterans Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson via free agency (Smith and Stratton) and trade (Anderson). In addition, they selected Matt Sauer in the Rule 5 Draft, as it is likely that Sauer could have a hybrid reliever/spot starter role, much like Brad Keller in 2018.
While the Royals could add another cheap reliever through free agency or give a Major League contract to one of their relief non-roster invitees, the Royals closer will likely come from this current group on the 40-man roster. Kansas City will begin the year without a clear closer for the first time since 2019, as Ian Kennedy or Scott Barlow have been the Royals’ primary closers to begin the season each year since 2020.
So with that said, who should be the Royals’ closer to begin the year in 2024? Which Royals relievers have the pitch profile to be successful in save situations?
In this post, I am going to look at three closer candidates for the Royals and look at the Pitchtype cards of their primary pitches, which is an app created by PLV creator and Pitcher List Director of Analytics and Research Kyle Bland.
Here are the categories that will be listed on the Pitchtype cards, which should give Royals fans a better idea of what each bar metric will mean for each pitcher.
- Velocity: Release speed of the pitch, out of the pitcher’s hand (in miles per hour).
- Release Extension: Distance towards the plate when the pitcher releases the pitch (in feet).
- Induced Vertical Break (IVB): Vertical break of the pitch, controlling for the effect of gravity (in inches).
- Arm-Side Break: Horizontal break of the pitch, relative to the pitcher’s handedness (in inches).
- Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle (VAA): Vertical angle at which the pitch approaches home plate, controlling for its vertical location at the plate (in degrees).
- xZone%: Predicted likelihood of the pitch being in the strike zone (as is called), assuming a swing isn’t made.
- Pitch Level Value (PLV): Estimated value of the pitch, based on the predicted outcomes of the pitch (0-10 scale. 5 is league average pitch value. PLV is not adjusted for pitch type.).
By looking at the Pitchtype cards of their primary pitches, I can see which of the three pitchers have a “shutdown” pitch, which can help them in those high-leverage situations.
James McArthur: Curveball (38.7%)
McArthur took over closer duties for Kansas City in mid-September (by process of elimination). He not only thrived in that role down the stretch, but he also showed that he could be a candidate to begin the season as the Royals’ closer in 2024 as well.
In September and October, McArthur allowed no runs, no walks, and only five hits in 16.1 IP. That also included 19 strikeouts over that 12-game span as well.
His primary pitch last year was his curveball, which he threw 38.7% of the time. According to Statcast data, his curveball produced a whiff rate of 35.3%, a K rate of 43.6%, and only produced an xwOBA of .164.
In terms of his Pitchtype data, his breaking ball velocity, release extension, adjusted vertical approach, and PLV were all well above the MLB median. That’s four of the seven characteristics, which is encouraging. On a further positive note, his induced vertical break and xZone% were only slightly below average. Thus, it’s possible that with more refinement, those categories could creep above average by the conclusion of 2024.
In addition to solid Pitch Characteristic metrics, McArthur also showed some interesting trends with his curveball location heatmap from a season ago.
Against right-handers, McArthur rarely hit the strike zone with his curveball. Against lefties, the pitch saw the zone more often than it did against right-handers, but it still was located primarily out of the strike zone (i.e. that bottom left corner on the chart).
In the clip compilation below, the curve catches more of the zone against Houston’s Kyle Tucker. However, the quality of the pitch gets him to swing and miss. Against Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, the pitch is WAY out of the strike zone (like the heatmap above) and it makes IKF look silly at Kauffman Stadium.
McArthur doesn’t have an elite four-seamer like some of the Royals relievers on the 40-man (especially Carlos Hernandez, Steven Cruz, and John McMillon). That said, his curve was a borderline-elite pitch in 2023 based on its characteristics and location.
With some minor changes and development in 2024, it’s possible that it could be an elite pitch, which would catapult McArthur into the closer’s role at some point next season.
Will Smith: Slider (50.1%)
Last season, Smith collected 22 saves for the World Champion Texas Rangers and ZiPS is projecting Smith to save 10 games in 55 appearances, the second-highest projection (McArthur is projected for 15).
That being said, Smith started to show his age a bit last year in various different categories.
Smith posted a 4.40 ERA in 60 appearances and 57.1 IP last season with the Rangers. That was his highest ERA since 2022 with the Braves (when he posted a -0.6 fWAR), and his inconsistency in the ninth inning last year caused him to lose save opportunities after the Trade Deadline, especially once they received Aroldis Chapman from the Royals.
Smith’s primary pitch last year was the slider, which he threw a whopping 50.1% of the time. Much like McArthur’s curveball, Smith’s slider posted pretty positive surface-level metrics. It produced a 39.6% whiff rate, a 39.1% K rate, and a .173 xWOBA last season, according to Statcast.
That said, the pitch characteristic data from his Pitchtype card are concerning.
All seven of his pitch characteristics were below the MLB median, though the induced vertical break, arm-side break, and PLV were close to that middle mark. Still, unlike McArthur, it’s hard to be optimistic about those questionable pitch characteristic bar charts, especially since Smith will be entering his age-34 season in 2024.
Let’s take a look at how Smith’s slider location chart fared a season ago.
Smith did show consistency with the location of his slider against both righties and lefties in 2023, which explains not only his high whiff and K rates with the pitch but his +17 run value as well according to Baseball Savant.
The pitch does have some interesting action to it, which makes it hard to pick up initially from a hitter’s perspective. Furthermore, it is also a solid pitch for Smith when located effectively.
Let’s take a glance at the clip compilation below of Smith inducing whiffs with the slider from both Joc Pederson and Julio Rodriguez.
He locates the pitch in the same area of the zone against both Pederson (a lefty) and Rodriguez (a righty). As a result, the slider proves to be difficult to hit, regardless of the handedness of the batter. It doesn’t feel like it should be as effective as it is based on the spin, movement, and velocity. And yet, Smith punches both hitters out.
If Smith wants to take over the closer’s role in Kansas City this spring, the slider needs to continue to be his most effective pitch in 2024.
Carlos Hernandez: Four-Seamer (55.3%)
Hernandez was given the first shot at the closer’s job after Barlow was traded to San Diego at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, Hernandez posted a 7.6 K-BB% and 6.69 FIP in high-leverage situations, according to Fangraphs. Thus, it’s not a surprise that Hernandez lost his spot in the ninth inning, even though he has some of the best stuff in the Royals bullpen.
Of the three, Hernandez’s four-seamer sports the best-looking Pitchtype card.
All seven of his categories were well above the league median. That included a velocity of 99.1 MPH and PLV of 5.32. In contrast, though, the Statcast metrics on his primary pitch weren’t as impressive as the ones from McArthur and Smith.
His four-seamer only produced a whiff rate of 25.4%, a K% of 21.5%, and an xwOBA of .382, according to Baseball Savant. Fastball pitches don’t tend to produce high whiff and K numbers, but the high xwOBA on the four-seamer is an area of concern, especially considering he throws the pitch over 55% of the time.
When it comes to location, Hernandez seemed to be a lot more effective controlling the pitch against right-handed batters than lefties, according to the location heatmap.
Against righties, Hernandez was able to not just locate the four-seamer up, but on the edges of the zone. Against lefties though the pitch caught a lot more of not just the strike zone, but also the middle of the plate. That tends to be a recipe for disaster, even with a pitch that has so many plus characteristics as Hernandez’s four-seamer.
Hernandez’s four-seamer is most effective when he can locate it up in the zone. In the strikeouts of Minnesota’s Trevor Larnach and Michael A. Taylor below, he keeps it in that location, which produces swinging strikeouts of the left-handed Larnach and right-handed Taylor.
It’s unlikely that Hernandez will get another shot in the ninth inning in 2024 due to his struggles in the role last year and the influx of veterans who may be more effective in the role (Smith, Stratton, and Anderson).
That said, if Hernandez continues to showcase the same kind of characteristics on his four-seamer this season, it will be hard for manager Matt Quatraro to not give Hernandez spot closer opportunities, especially if he can improve that command against left-handed batters.
Photo Credit: Bob Levey/Getty Images