It appears like the Royals roster, at least leading up to the Winter Meetings in December, is starting to form a bit.
After releasing Taylor Hearn, Tucker Davidson, Bubba Thompson, and Nate Eaton from the roster since the conclusion of the World Series, the Royals came to an agreement with reliever Taylor Clarke, one of their arbitration-eligible players this offseason.
The move was a mild surprise, as Clarke is coming off a 2023 season in which he posted a 5.95 ERA, a 5.07 FIP, and -0.2 fWAR, according to Fangraphs.
Last year, there was some hope that Clarke would command some trade interest at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, Clarke struggled for the most part (with the exception of a 12-outing May where he posted a 0.71 ERA), and like many relievers on the Royals roster last year, it became a nerve-wracking experience whenever Clarke took the mound, especially in high-leverage situations.
Therefore, why did the Royals decide to bring Clarke back, especially with improving the bullpen a priority for JJ Picollo and the Royals front office this offseason?
Let’s take a look at Clarke’s situation heading into 2024, why the Royals decided to bring him back (for at least Spring Training), and what his return could mean for other Royals relievers in the organization this offseason.
Clarke’s Pitch Quality Worth Watching (Especially on Four-Seamer)
When looking at the surface-level metrics of Clarke, it’s easy to dismiss him as a candidate who should’ve gotten non-tendered this offseason.
However, when looked at through a pitch quality, Clarke retains a lot more value, especially if the Royals are able to agree to a deal with him for $2.2 million or less (his projected arbitration amount, according to MLB Trade Rumors).
Last season, Clarke produced an overall PLV of 5.20, highlighted by a slider that was one of the better slider offerings in baseball, according to Pitcher List’s PLV metric.
With a 5.47 PLV, Clarke’s slider ranked around the 80th percentile. The four-seamer and changeup weren’t as impressive, as evidenced by their 4.93 and 4.75 PLV marks. On the other hand, Clarke’s four-seamer still ranked in the 60th percentile and his changeup ranked around league average. That’s not bad, especially when compared to other Royals relievers a season ago.
What makes Clarke even more intriguing though is that his pitch arsenal PLV was even more impressive a couple of seasons ago, as evidenced by his PLV pitch quality chart from 2022.
The slider was an even more elite pitch on a PLV end with a 5.52 mark, that ranked around the 95th percentile. However, his four-seamer was also a much better pitch on a pitch quality end in 2022, as evidenced by his 5.29 PLV on the pitch, which ranked in the 95th percentile.
A big issue last season that contributed to Clarke’s overall struggles on the mound was his dip in fastball velocity.
Not only did that regression in velocity lead to a decrease in his fastball pitch quality from 2022, but it also seemed to correlate heavily with an increase in hard-hit percentage. That can be seen in the Fangraphs chart below.
Typically, more hard-hit balls an opposing team collects against a pitcher will result in more base hits and runs allowed. Clarke was no exception to that rule in 2023, as his ERA increased from 4.04 in 2022 to 5.95 in 2023.
It also didn’t help that in addition to seeing his fastball pitch quality regress, he also didn’t exactly command the pitch well last year. This is despite throwing it only 29% of the time, a 13.4% decrease in usage from 2022.
Let’s compare his four-seam fastball heatmap from 2022 to his one from last season.
In 2022, Clarke was able to locate the four-seam at least more up in the zone, which is what you want to do with a four-seamer that averaged 94.8 MPH that season. However, last year, Clarke sat more middle-middle with the pitch, which is a part of the zone hitters thrive, especially against fastballs with sub-95 MPH velocities.
When Clarke located the four-seamer more up in the zone in 2022, he generated more whiffs. When he located more in the middle last year, he allowed harder base hits. That difference can be seen by Royals fans in the GIF compilation below.
It’s not out of the question to think that pitching coaches Brian Sweeney, Mitch Stetter, and Zach Bove think that Clarke is just an offseason adjustment away from regaining that four-seam pitch quality and command again in 2024.
And if Clarke does make that adjustment and sees a rebound in his four-seam effectiveness next season, then not only will Clarke once again be a valuable part of this Royals bullpen, but he could also be a nice trade chip by the Trade Deadline.
Which isn’t bad for a guy costing under $2.5 million.
Clarke’s Success in Holding Runners Last Year
Statcast just released a new metric that measures how well a pitcher “limits” the running game when an opposing runner gets on base.
What was interesting to see is that the Royals actually fared quite well in this metric.
Last season, the Royals ranked 3rd in the league pitcher base advances prevented with a 20 mark (they tied with the Tigers). That ranking was primarily helped by two Royals pitchers who placed in the Top 10: Zack Greinke (not a surprise) and Clarke.
Clarke tied for 7th with other big names such as Tyler Megill, Wade Miley, and Mitch Keller (Greinke ranked 2nd overall).
For a team that saw some regression in Salvador Perez’s defensive ability and arm strength behind the plate in 2023, it’s possible that Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro may value arms that can hold runners on effectively in order to limit runners’ effectiveness on the basepaths.
Thus, it’s interesting to see which Royals did that well last year and which ones didn’t, according to Savant.
Take a look in this gallery at the top 20 Royals pitchers when it came to limiting the running game and the bottom 15 from a season ago.
Aroldis Chapman, Brooks Kriske, and Davidson, who sported some of the worst marks in this category a season ago, are no longer with the Royals.
However, Max Castillo, Josh Taylor, and Jackson Kowar are pitchers on the 40-man bubble and could be in trouble if holding runners on is a priority for this Royals organization going forward.
If they are non-tendered this offseason, then their performance in this metric could be one (of the many) reasons why.
Value of Minor League Options
Another boost in Clarke’s favor is that he does have a Minor League option remaining, according to Fangraphs’ Roster Resource.
While the Royals are hoping for more consistency from their bullpen in 2024, it’s likely that they will employ a similar strategy next season as they did in 2023, which is to shuffle relievers between Kansas City and Omaha in order to ensure depth.
Clarke didn’t get optioned a lot last year but having an option gives him flexibility that other relievers, like Davidson, who was out of Minor League options, didn’t have. I would expect Picollo to value relievers with Minor League options once again in 2024 and not just on the roster, but also in trade and free agent discussions as well.
The only reliever without any Minor League options left is Jackson Kowar, which puts his status on this 40-man roster in jeopardy this offseason.
There’s no doubt that Kowar has closer potential and saw some small progress in 2023 under the new coaching staff. That said, he still posted a 6.43 ERA and produced a -0.2 fWAR in 28 IP last year, according to Fangraphs.
Frankly, I am not sure Kowar is bringing the Royals bullpen anything that they couldn’t get from Steven Cruz or Carlos Hernandez, who both were not only more effective than Kowar last year but also still have at least one Minor League option remaining.
Clarke isn’t a first-round pick or has the upside of Kowar. However, in this day and age of bullpen utilization, option status matters in the long run. It’s likely that if Clarke was out of Minor League options he would’ve been non-tendered, much like Davidson and Hearn this offseason.
It will be interesting to see if Kowar follows Hearn and Davidson out of Kansas City as well this offseason, though it’s possible he could clear waivers and be outrighted to Omaha after his disastrous career thus far at the Major League level.
Photo Credit: Duane Burleson/Getty Images
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