The Rule 5 Draft is still roughly a month away. That said, over the next 30 days, the Royals will need to make some roster moves to protect certain players in their farm system from the December draft that occurs during the Winter Meetings.
Sometimes it can be difficult to gauge who is worth protecting from the Rule 5 and who isn’t.
Any player who is selected in the Rule 5 draft needs to stay on an MLB roster for the whole season, or else they will be returned to their previous organization. Thus, players who haven’t really ascended above High-A ball aren’t really at risk of being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, for it’s unlikely they would make a club’s 26-man roster, let alone stay on a club for a whole season. So names like Omar Hernandez, Lizandro Rodriguez, and Erick Pena are unlikely to be drafted, even though they are Rule 5-eligible and still carry some prospect upside.
On the other hand, there still are some talented players in the Royals system who could be swooped up in the Rule 5 Draft, especially by a club that is willing to be patient over the course of a full 162-game season. Akil Baddoo of the Tigers and Blake Sabol of the Giants are two examples of position players who found success with their respective clubs who selected them in the Rule 5 Draft.
In this post, I am going to look at six position players who could be added to the Royals’ 40-man roster this offseason in order to prevent them from getting selected by another club in December (I will have a separate post that focuses on pitchers). In addition to those six players, who I will tier from “most likely” to “possible” to “long shots”, I will also look at a few players who could get outrighted from the 40-man roster, in order to clear a roster spot from those possible additions.
Most Likely Added
Tyler Gentry, OF; Tyler Tolbert, Utility
Gentry has been a top-10 to top-15 prospect in the Royals system the past couple of seasons. Even with the glut of outfielders on the Royals’ 40-man and in the Royals system, I think it’s likely that Gentry will be added to the 40-man this offseason, as he would likely get drafted in the Rule 5 Draft and compete for a starting spot in Spring Training.
The former Alabama product got off to a slow start in Omaha, but finished strong, as he posted a wOBA of .360 and wRC+ of 103.
In 129 games and 572 plate appearances, he hit .253 with 16 home runs, 71 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. As stated before, it’s easy to forget about Gentry as a starting outfield candidate in 2024, especially with MJ Melendez, Edward Olivares, Nelson Velazquez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, and Dairon Blanco still on the roster. However, Gentry presents a solid overall profile who could be a 20-20 threat at the Major League level.
What makes Gentry also intriguing is his solid plate discipline as he posted a 0.64 BB/K ratio with the Storm Chasers last season and a 0.61 ratio with the Naturals in 2022. For a team that struggled in OBP (the Royals ranked 28th), he provides a nice boost in this category, as he can get on base when base hits aren’t falling.
The other “for sure” player who gets added this offseason is Tolbert, who was named the Royals’ George Brett Minor League Hitter of the Year last season. Tolbert primarily played in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and he shined in 126 games, especially in the second half of the season.
Prior to 2023, Tolbert was seen as more of an organizational depth guy (i.e. a AAAA player) rather than a true prospect.
He sported an excellent speed tool, as he stole 60 bases on 60 attempts in High-A Quad Cities in 2022. However, he only posted an 85 wRC+ with the River Bandits, and his .116 ISO in the hitter-friendly Midwest League didn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence either in his prospect outlook.
His time in Northwest Arkansas though was a different story.
Not only did he continue to showcase his speed (50 stolen bases), but he also hit 10 home runs, a career-high in a season for him professionally. He can be a little swing-happy (0.31 BB/K ratio), but he did lower his K rate by nearly 2% in 2023 despite facing better-quality pitching.
Tolbert is a player who can play multiple positions in the infield and outfield, so he could be a useful piece not just for the Royals, but for any team looking for some depth on the bench. Hence, the Royals could add Tolbert to the 40-man roster this offseason in order to ensure that he’s serving in that role in Kansas City and not on another club.
Possible Additions
Devin Mann, 2B/3B; CJ Alexander, 1B/3B
Mann was acquired by the Royals in the Ryan Yarbrough trade with the Dodgers at the Deadline last year. It was thought that Mann could’ve taken over the Matt Duffy role down the stretch, but the Royals opted to keep Duffy for the remainder of the year and Mann went through an up-and-down campaign with the Storm Chasers at the plate.
After hitting .307 with 14 home runs and 71 RBI in 386 plate appearances with the Oklahoma City Dodgers (Los Angeles’ AAA team), Mann only hit .198 with six home runs and 15 RBI in 164 plate appearances in Omaha. He still managed to show a patient eye at the plate, as he walked 17.7% of the time with the Storm Chaser. That said, he struck out 30.5% of the time, and his BABIP of .263 was a big decline from his .397 mark in Oklahoma City. Both factors were big reasons why he posted a sub-.200 batting average after the trade.
Nonetheless, Mann is a player who like Duffy can play multiple positions, especially second, first, and third base. Unlike Duffy, he offers more power potential, as he still posted a .206 ISO in Omaha.
It would be surprising to see the Royals not add Mann to the 40-man roster this offseason as he feels like the kind of guy who would not just get selected in the Rule 5 Draft but actually do well with the club that drafted him. Hopefully, the Royals see that potential and give him an opportunity for that “Duffy-esque” utility role instead of a veteran like Duffy (which they did last season).
While Mann should be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, it’s a bit murkier for Alexander.
The former Braves prospect (who came in the Drew Waters deal in 2022) has big power and earned rave reviews from George Brett last spring in the Royals camp in Surprise. However, he was mediocre with the Storm Chasers last year and saw his prospect outlook decline as a result.
In 86 games and 314 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, Alexander slashed .220/.280/.423 with a 68 wRC+. He whiffed a lot as he struck out 29.9% of the time and posted a BB/K ratio of 0.26. He did hit 13 home runs last year, and when he was in a groove he showed one of the best power tools in the Royals system last season, especially in the upper levels.
A month ago, I would’ve put Alexander in the “long shot” category. Since then though, he ended up playing in the Arizona Fall League and really stuck out, as he hit 3 home runs and posted an .844 OPS in 55 plate appearances.
Granted, Alexander only hit .213 and still struck out 16 times, but the power tool is legitimate and certainly can translate to the Major League level if given the opportunity.
Alexander isn’t a sure thing by any means. That said, for a club that may be desperate for power and is willing to not mind the strikeout totals, Alexander could be a 20-25 HR threat in 2024.
If the Royals do not add Alexander to the 40-man roster this offseason (which is likely), then don’t be surprised to see Alexander’s name called in December.
Long Shot Additions
John Rave, OF; Tucker Bradley, OF
Rave and Bradley aren’t bad outfield prospects by any means. That being said, the Royals already have a lot of depth in the outfield and the addition of Gentry and likely Tolbert probably means that both of these guys will go unprotected this winter.
Rave has more upside between the two, as he played well in the AFL a year ago.
The former 5th-round pick was solid in Northwest Arkansas in 2023, as he hit .275 and posted a 117 wRC+ 236 plate appearances with the Naturals. Unfortunately, the adjustment to Triple-A proved to be tougher than expected for Rave, which is a reason why he won’t be added to the 40-man this offseason.
In 302 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, he only hit .236 with a 76 wRC+. He also saw his K rate rise by 3.2%, his walk rate decline by 2.5%, and his BB/K ratio fall to 0.43 (a 16-point regression). Those developments were a shame considering it seemed possible that Rave could’ve gotten a late-season callup last year after his stellar stint in Double-A.
Bradley fared much better than Rave in both Northwest Arkansas and Omaha last year, as he didn’t see a sharp decline in the move to the Triple-A.
He posted a 113 wRC+ in 107 plate appearances with the Naturals and 103 wRC+ in 250 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers. He also posted a solid 0.42 BB/K ratio in Northwest Arkansas and a 0.63 BB/K ratio with Omaha. So it was nice to see that plate discipline get better against more advanced pitching.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to think too highly of Bradley when he gets demoted to Double-A in the second half of the season. While it seemed to be due to a “roster crunch” after the Trade Deadline, it also doesn’t show that the Royals have a whole lot of confidence in Bradley’s outlook when they’re more willing to send him to Double-A than promote him to the Major League level.
His demotion will probably scare off teams in the Rule 5 Draft.
On a positive note, that could benefit the Royals, especially if they can clear some space in the outfield by next year’s Trade Deadline. While Bradley is not an “elite” talent, he certainly could be a fourth outfielder who could boost the Royals roster if given a chance.
Possible Subtractions From the 40-Man Roster
Dairon Blanco, OF; Samad Taylor, UTL; Diego Hernandez, OF; Nick Pratto, 1B
Blanco is a tough one to mention as a possible roster “subtraction” because he was a great story for the Royals last season and actually finished the season strong at the plate, as evidenced by his 108 wRC+ for the year.
That said, he is already 30 years old, and it’s hard to envision him being much more than a 4th outfielder at this point in his career. It may be better for the Royals to explore trading him this winter for either some prospect depth or a reliever, which they certainly could use after the rough year the bullpen had in 2023.
Taylor and Hernandez both still have some upside but struggled at various points a season ago. Taylor was excellent in Omaha as he posted a 128 wRC+, but he looked lost at the Major League level as he posted a 48 wRC+ with the Royals (though he did have his moments).
As for Hernandez, he never got going in Double-A Northwest Arkansas after suffering a shoulder injury in Spring Training, as he posted a 61 wRC+ in 269 plate appearances. He does still have a lot of fans in the organization though, and it’s possible that the Royals are willing to give him a mulligan after the nasty shoulder injury he suffered in Spring Training.
On the other hand, if the Royals do decide to designate either for assignment, it’s likely that they will get claimed by an opposing club. It would be a shame to lose either of them due to “off” campaigns in 2023 at various levels.
Lastly, Pratto could also be jettisoned off the roster, though it most likely would be through trade rather than a straight DFA.
The Royals’ 2017 first-round pick has power potential and he showed some defensive versatility a season ago. Unfortunately, he failed to solidify his position a season ago after Vinnie Pasquantino went down to injury, and with Salvy platooning at 1B in the second half last year, Pratto’s spot on the roster looks more questionable, especially if Salvy sticks around.
It may be better for Pratto to perhaps find a home park that could better fit his swing than Kauffman Stadium, much like Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati or Yankee Stadium, where he hit a bomb last season.
The only issue is whether or not either of those clubs (or the Red Sox who also have a park tailor-made for Pratto) would be willing to give up anything of note for Pratto.
Because it’s unlikely that the Royals would give away Pratto for nothing this offseason, even with his spot in Kansas City in 2024 unclear.
Photo Credit: Brisbane Bandits
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