When the Royals received Cole Ragans (along with outfielder Roni Cabrera) from the Texas Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman trade, there was initially some skepticism among Royals fans.

After all, the Royals have not had a great history of pitching development, whether with arms they have drafted/signed or acquired through trade (Jorge Lopez was an example of a deadline acquisition in 2018 that didn’t pan out). Furthermore, even though Ragans was highly regarded at one point in the Rangers system, he certainly had underwhelmed at the Major League level over the past couple of seasons.

In nine starts and 40 IP with the Rangers during his rookie season, Ragans posted a 4.95 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. Despite flashing some promising stuff, Ragans only posted a K-BB% of 6.3% in his rookie campaign in 2022, and he had trouble with the long ball, as evidenced by his 1.35 HR/9 mark.

This season, prior to his move to Kansas City, Ragans was primarily utilized out of the bullpen for the Rangers. That isn’t surprising considering Texas spent heavily on free-agent starting pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi this past offseason, and Jon Gray back in 2022.

Despite his change in role, Ragans continued to struggle this year.

His issues with home runs persisted in 2023 initially, demonstrated by his 1.48 HR/9 mark with the Rangers in 2023, an increase from the previous season. In addition, he also saw an increase in walk rate, as it went from 9.2% in 2022 to 13.2% with Texas prior to the June 30th trade.

That said, there were some flashes of promise that Ragans showed with the Rangers in 2023 that made Royals fans hopeful that he could be serviceable with the right adjustments.

Even though his BB-K% remained mediocre at 1.71 with the Rangers this season, his K% increased significantly from 15.5% last year to 22.6% in 2023 with the Rangers. Thus, his 4.97 xFIP and 5.27 FIP hinted that Ragans wasn’t as bad with Texas this season as his ERA indicated.

Then again though, he was going to Kansas City, not Cleveland or Tampa Bay, organizations better known for turning around pitchers. So even though there were some glimmers of hope for Ragans this year in Texas, it seemed like the odds were against Ragans succeeding with the Royals not just in 2023, but long-term as well.

As Royals fans found out in the second half though, not only were we wrong about Ragans and his impact this year, but the Royals pitching development and coaching team as well.

Not only did Ragans contribute positively to the Royals rotation down the stretch (which included earning AL Pitcher of the Month honors in August), but he also ended up proving that he could be a possible “Opening Day Ace” for the Royals in 2024, especially if he continues to respond well to the Royals’ pitching development team this offseason and spring in Surprise.

Therefore, will Ragans continue his upward progression as a starting pitcher at the Major League level in 2024 and be an anchor for this Royals rotation?

Or is Ragans’ strong finish to the 2023 season simply another “flash in the pan”, similar to Brady Singer, who had a lackluster 2023 after a promising second half in 2023.

Let’s dive deep into Ragans’ profile and what positive signs (and concerns) from last year Royals fans should be paying attention to with the former Texas first-round pick next season.

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Improvement With the Four-Seamer and Cutter

When comparing Ragans’ PLV pitch quality from last season to this season, his improvement in PLV on the four-seamer and cutter sticks out, as Royals fans can see in the PLV chart comparison below.

Last season, Ragans’ four-seamer produced a PLV of 4.67 and his cutter produced a PLV of 4.78, both below-average marks.

This season though, his four-seamer PLV increased to 4.99 and his cutter PLV increased to 4.98. Not only did both pitches rate slightly above the 50% league percentile, but they also resulted in PLA marks of 3.92 and 3.94.

Ragans also showed considerable success with both pitches this year in terms of generating chases, whiffs, and called strikes compared to a season ago.

Below is a look at the strike and swing data on his four-seamer over the past two seasons.

As Royals fans can see, his four-seamer saw a 9.8% boost in his CSW% and an 8.1% improvement in his swinging-strike rate as well. He also hit the strike zone 8.5% more as well, while still getting hitters to chase 4.4% more. The fact of the matter is that his four-seamer was a dominant pitch when it came to getting strikes, especially when he moved to Kansas City.

A big reason for the increase in those chase and strike rates could be credited to his increase in four-seam velocity from 2022.

His four-seamer averaged 96.5 MPH this year, a 4.4 MPH increase from his rookie year. That said, before he was traded to Kansas City, Ragans was showing more velocity on his four-seamer with the Rangers in 2023 compared to a season ago, as one can see in the GIF compilation below.

Cole Ragans-Tex-FF-2022 & 2023

Thus, Ragans’ velocity increase was starting to happen early in Texas this year. However, it was hard to tell at the time if that was simply a product of Ragans’ move to the bullpen or a legitimate increase that could be sustained over multiple innings.

With the Royals, Ragans showed it was the latter, as evidenced by this 100-MPH four-seamer which came on pitch 99 of the game against Zack Gelof of the Athletics on August 23rd.

Ragans FF-K-Oakland-2023

The four-seamer essentially helped Ragans go from a middling hybrid pitcher who didn’t quite have a role in Texas to a budding ace who showed stretches of dominance in Kansas City.

In addition, his cutter also saw some solid improvement in chase and strike data, even if it wasn’t as impressive as his four-seam metrics.

The cutter lagged a bit in terms of O-Swing% and Swinging-Strike% from the previous year. However, in terms of CSW%, CS%, and Zone%, the cutter saw a marked improvement, making it a pitch that Ragans could rely on in 2023.

Much like the four-seamer, Ragans’ cutter benefited from an increase in velocity, which made it tougher on opposing hitters compared to his rookie year.

In the GIF compilation below, Ragans this year was able to not just throw his cutter harder and with sharper break, but also was able to command it much better in the strike zone.

Cole Ragans FC-2022 & 2023

Against Shea Langeliers of Oakland in 2022, Ragans got away with one, as Langeliers probably should’ve mashed the pitch based on its location.

However, against Pittsburgh’s Endy Rodriguez, his cutter had much sharper movement and painted the inside of the strike zone. Even if Rodriguez swung and made contact, he wouldn’t have been able to do much with the pitch (unlike the one to Langeliers which was located up and middle-away).

For Ragans to continue to dominate in 2024 like he did at times in 2023 (especially in August), it will be important for his four-seamer and cutter to be effective go-to pitches.

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Surprising Slider Success?

One of the biggest developments for Ragans in his move to the Royals organization was his addition of a slider to his repertoire. The usage of the pitch was encouraged not just by pitching coach Brian Sweeney but Director of Pitching Development Paul Gibson after Ragans suggested utilizing it after he was traded over from Texas.

Remember, this organization basically prevented Kris Bubic from throwing his slider during the 2022 season despite Bubic utilizing it a lot during Spring Training.

That shows how different this coaching staff and development team is under JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro.

Even though he didn’t throw it in Texas, Ragans utilized the slider almost immediately with the Royals and it became a regular part of his repertoire, as seen by the month-by-month pitch usage chart via Savant.

As a result of the introduction of his slider, his curveball usage decreased in July, August, and September. That said, the use of a slider primarily as a breaking pitch instead of the curve wasn’t a bad strategy, especially since Ragans’ slider outperformed his curve on a PLV end (5.47 to 4.92, respectively).

The slider played better off the cutter this year, especially since they shared similar vertical and horizontal movement. The primary difference between the two pitches was velocity, as the slider averaged 86.8 MPH compared to the 91.8 MPH cutter.

Notice below in the clip of Ragans getting a called strike against Kyle Tucker of the Astros. He’s expecting a cutter, but the difference in velocity buckles him up and he doesn’t swing as a result.

Cole Ragans SL-2023-HOU

Ragans adding that pitch to his arsenal, especially when complemented with the cutter, made him tough to scout on a regular basis. Tucker is one of the best hitters in the game, and yet, Ragans made him hesitant in that particular at-bat.

Furthermore, Ragans’ chase and strike numbers on the slider were particularly eye-popping, as his slider rated in the upper percentiles of the league in most categories by season’s end, according to Pitcher List.

His 26.1% SwStr% and 33.3% CSW% ranked in the 97th percentile and his 50.5% O-Sw% ranked in the 99th percentile. Those are elite rankings, plain and simple.

The question is this though: Will opposing hitters adjust now that they have a couple of months of seeing his slider in action?

We have seen hitters adjust against Royals starting pitchers’ stronger offerings the following season with more of a scouting report, with Singer being the prime example in 2023 (his slider and sinker were far less effective).

It’ll be interesting to see what Ragans and the Royals PD team do this offseason and spring to help Ragans continue to dominate with his newly-found breaking offering.

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Issues With the Changeup?

I believe that Ragans is ready to make the next step and be the Royals’ “top-of-the-rotation” pitcher in 2024, starting on Opening Day. He has the combination of stuff and command to be a special arm in Kansas City for years to come, as long as he stays healthy.

The only blemish in his repertoire may be his changeup which saw some regression from a season ago.

Last year, Ragans added more velocity on the offspeed pitch, but unlike the four-seamer and cutter, it didn’t result in positive growth.

His changeup PLV went from 5.40 in 2022 to 4.71 in 2023, a 0.69-point decrease. Furthermore, look at his chase and strike metrics on the changeup over the past two years as well, via Pitcher List.

His changeup had a better zone percentage in 2023 than in 2022, but he posted worse metrics in nearly every category. He also saw hitters make better contact against the pitch, especially down the stretch. Hitters’ xwOBA of .356 on the changeup was the highest monthly mark in that category last year, a sign that the pitch was starting to lose some luster by the conclusion of the season.

Ragns would either lose quality or command of the pitch at times in September. This produced results like this at-bat against Houston’s Yainer Diaz, who hit a home run to deep center off of Ragans’ subpar changeup on September 16th at Kauffman.

Cole Ragans CH-2023-HR

It’s hard to argue with what Ragans did last year, especially since he showcased an elite pitch in his slider and three very good pitches as well in his repertoire (four-seamer, cutter, and curve). It’s difficult to imagine Ragans being perfect in everything, especially after only 136 career innings at the Major League level.

Nonetheless, it’s still concerning to see Ragans’ changeup go from his best pitch in 2022 to his worst one in 2023. Will the same thing happen to his slider? And will his changeup regress closer to his 2022 metrics or stay around his 2023 ones?

If Ragans can get his changeup to be a solid pitch again, Ragans will not just sport one of the best arsenals on the Royals pitching staff next year, but arguably in all of baseball as well.

Ragans establishing himself as one of the better pitchers in the game next year should give Royals fans hope that winning baseball will be coming back sooner than expected.

Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports