Carlos Hernandez May Be the Royals’ Most Difficult Deadline Dilemma

At 29-73 going into Tuesday’s game against the Cleveland Guardians, the Royals are expected to be a “seller” by the August 1st Trade Deadline.

It makes sense, as the Royals need to re-stock their farm system and find talent who can contribute at the Major League level in the long term, even if they may not have much of an impact on the MLB squad this season.

Last year, the Royals had a successful Trade Deadline, as the Royals dealt away veterans on expiring deals such as Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield for young talent who have had an impact in the Royals farm system this season. However, the Royals do not have veteran players on this 2023 roster like Benny and Whit who sport decent trade value and are more sensible on a competitive team rather than a rebuilding one.

Thus, I predicted this Royals Trade Deadline campaign may be a lot tamer compared to years past. High-profile reliever Aroldis Chapman has already been dealt, and fellow reliever Scott Barlow is the only real trade candidate that fits that Benny/Whit mold from a season ago.

Even though Barlow has struggled on the mound since the All-Star Break, which has gotten Royals fans into “freakout” mode (well…more than before), the recent trade of Rockies reliever Pierce Johnson to Atlanta for a pair of Braves Top-30 prospects should help give an idea of what kind of return the Royals could get for Barlow.

To make matters more favorable for the Royals and their chances of trading Barlow, the Cardinals seem to have taken Jordan Hicks off the trade market, as there are reports that he will agree to a multi-year extension before the Deadline.

Barlow is the most likely Royal to be traded over the next week, and it would be a surprise if he isn’t dealt, especially with all the buzz surrounding him. It is possible that hybrid pitcher Ryan Yarbrough, outfielder Edward Olivares and utility infielders Nicky Lopez and Matt Duffy could generate some interest, though the return won’t be anything close to what they could get for Barlow.

On the flip side, a name on the Royals roster that has been gaining steam as a trade candidate over the past week is Carlos Hernandez, who’s had a breakout season since being moved to the bullpen full-time this season.

Hernandez’s name being floated as a trade candidate certainly is surprising to Royals fans, significantly since he would likely move into the closer’s role if/when Barlow is traded. The Royals lack dependable arms out of the bullpen, and if Hernandez and Barlow are gone by August, things could get REALLY ugly in the bullpen over the next couple of months (which would only cement their history on the losing end of things).

However, the Royals need an influx of talent, and JJ Picollo and the Royals front office need to explore whatever deal out there to help turn this team and farm system around.

Let’s take a look at why Hernandez is a trade candidate, what the benefit of trading him would be, and what the bullpen could look like if both he and Barlow are no longer around in Kansas City after August 1st.

Why Is Hernandez a Trade Candidate?

After Hernandez posted a 3.68 ERA and accumulated a 1.0 fWAR in 85.2 IP in 2021, there was some hope among Royals fans that he could perhaps be the “ace” of the Royals rotation in 2022.

Unfortunately, his command issues came to full fruition in 2022, preventing him from finding success both in the rotation as well as the bullpen. In 27 appearances and 56 IP, Hernandez posted a 7.39 ERA, a 1.13 K/BB ratio, and accumulated a -0.2 fWAR.

And thus, there were questions about Hernandez’s future on the Royals’ MLB roster going into Spring Training in 2023, let alone being a possible trade candidate.

That said, under the guidance of new pitching coach Brian Sweeney, and the Royals’ revamped pitching development program under pitching director Paul Gibson, Hernandez has thrived this season.

In 50 innings of work and 43 appearances, he has improved his ERA to 3.78, and his 28.6 percent K rate and 4.38 K/BB ratios are career-best marks. Furthermore, he has accumulated a 1.0 fWAR, matching his 2021 total already, and his 2.82 FIP demonstrates that his performance this season isn’t “lucky” by any means, which couldn’t necessarily be said back two seasons ago.

A key to his success this season has been his four-seamer development from a year ago. Hernandez’s four-seamer has regularly been a 100 MPH pitch on a velocity end, and from a pitch quality perspective, the four-seamer has been much more effective in 2023, as Royals fans can see in the PLV chart comparison below.

The four-seam fastball has been 0.68 points better on a PLV end and 1.81 points better in terms of PLA as well. The splitter has seen some minor improvement, and there has been a bit of regression on the slider and curveball pitches. However, it hasn’t seemed to matter much, as Hernandez’s excellent four-seamer is a big reason why his overall PLV is 5.25, 0.30 points better than a year ago.

Hernandez’s marked improvement in pitch quality is a big reason why the Venezuelan reliever has gotten on the radar of many fans of teams who may be “buyers” at the deadline over the past month.

Now, with Hernandez having such a solid season, why would the Royals want to trade him, especially since he still has plenty of years of club control remaining?

Plain and simple: Relievers tend to have short, unpredictable careers at the Major League level.

Yes, Hernandez could be the next Kelvin Herrera or Greg Holland. Then again though, will he be able to be that for six or more years, which is the length of control that the Royals have with Hernandez?

That seems unlikely, especially with his struggles in 2022.

And thus, Picollo and the Royals may strike when the iron is hot, and trade away Hernandez, even though his loss would severely hinder the Royals bullpen for the remainder of the 2023 season.

Jack Johnson of the “Locked on Royals” threw out some trade scenarios on the Baseball Trade Values “trade machine” and it’s possible that Hernandez could get something similar, or perhaps even better, to what Barlow could command on the trade market at this time.

And that’s if Hernandez is just traded on his own. If the Royals should perhaps package him with a prospect like Nick Loftin or maybe Samad Taylor? It’s possible that the return could be a lot more significant.

The Royals fanbase wants the Royals to make a splash at the Trade Deadline, especially with an already fired-up fanbase even more charged up after John Sherman released an “open letter” to the fanbase about their plans to make a decision on the new Royals stadium at the end of September.

If Kansas City wants to get a trade package with a legitimate return, it may be time for Picollo to not wait like Dayton Moore did with Barlow, Whit, and Brad Keller and instead trade Hernandez when his value is at its likeliest peak.

So Who Fills in For Hernandez?

As tough as it would be initially to stomach the loss of Hernandez, I do not think the Royals bullpen would suffer as much as some may imagine.

First off, while Hernandez has been one of Matt Quatraro’s more trusted relievers in high-leverage situations recently, his gmLI, which measures the leverage index when a pitcher enters a game, ranked only fourth for Royals relievers with 10 or more IP this season.

As Royals fans can see, he is ranked behind Taylor Clarke in not just gmLI, but also shutdowns. He also has the same number of meltdowns (eight) as Clarke, as of July 25th.

So while the Royals would miss his electric stuff, I’m not sure he’s quite the “for sure” closer that everyone is expecting him to be once Barlow is gone and the role becomes open. It would be better for the Royals to have another team find that out rather than themselves, especially with how this season is going.

Secondly, Sweeney and the Royals coaching staff have seemed to succeed in turning around relievers with electric stuff but command issues.

Chapman and Hernandez saw major turnarounds in 2023 after lackluster campaigns in 2022 where many pundits thought both were done back in October. And hence, it isn’t out of the question to think that pitchers in the Royals system with similar profiles could also be successful when promoted to the MLB level this season.

Two pitchers that come to mind are Will Klein and John McMillon, who are in Omaha and Northwest Arkansas, respectively. Both possess upper-90s stuff with the ability to touch 100 MPH on occasion. They also both sport tremendous strikeout numbers, as well as some command concerns.

Klein was the Royals’ representative in the Futures Game during All-Star Weekend, and he is currently posting a 1.84 ERA and 35.8 percent K rate with the Storm Chasers.

As for McMillon, he started the year in Low-A Columbia, but he has dominated not just the Low-A Carolina League, but High-A Midwest League and Double-A Texas League as well. He posted K rates of 48.8 percent in Columbia; 51.9 percent in Quad Cities; and 37.3 percent in Northwest Arkansas.

A Major League promotion this year seems rash, but McMillon may have the best stuff in the Royals system, and on stuff alone, he may be better than options on the 40-man like James McArthur and Collin Snider.

Could Klein and McMillion be the next Royals bullpen success stories in 2023, like Chapman and Hernandez?

At this point in the season, why not explore the possibility?

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn

5 thoughts on “Carlos Hernandez May Be the Royals’ Most Difficult Deadline Dilemma”

  1. Seems to me like you trade veterans so that you can take a flyer on high ceiling young players like Hernandez!! If you were to see him pitching in AA wouldn’t he be the kind of player you would like to acquire? Trading high ceiling guys because you don’t have the coaching necessary to turn them around seems more like a knock on the coaches rather than the player!

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    1. I am not disagreeing with what you’r saying but how much of a ceiling does Carlos Hernandez have? Skills-wise, I am not sure he’s going to be much better than what he’s showing and as I mentioned in the post already, I doubt he will have a long-term value as a reliever. Even HDH had 3-4 year windows of individual excellence and fell of cliffs quickly. It seems like a big risk, especially since he wasn’t that great from 2020-2022.

      And knock on the coaches? The coaches are a big reason why he’s been so good. He wasn’t showing this kind of control or command under Cal Eldred.

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