Without a doubt, Mike Mayers has been one of the Royals’ most unpredictable pitching success stories within the first couple of months of the season.
This past offseason, Mayers was signed to a Minor League deal by the Royals after he was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Angels this offseason.
In his final season with the Angels, Mayers posted a 5.68 ERA and -0.9 fWAR in 24 appearances and 50.2 innings of work in 2022. Not only was Mayers’ final season in Anaheim uninspiring, but he didn’t have a great Cactus League campaign with the Royals this past March either.
In six Cactus League appearances (and two starts), Mayers posted a 5.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with the Royals. While he did strike out 15 batters in 14.1 IP, and only allowed five walks, he did give up 11 hits and eight runs, which explains his inflated ERA. As a result, the Royals opted to option Mayers to Omaha after Spring Training, where he pitched primarily during the first month of play.
Unfortunately, his tenure with the Storm Chasers wasn’t great, at least when it came to the surface-level numbers.
In eight appearances (which were all starts) with the Storm Chasers, Mayers posted a 6.88 ERA and 5.49 FIP in 34 innings of work, according to Fangraphs. Mayers was particularly plagued in Triple-A by high home run rates (1.32 HR/9; 16.7 percent HR/FB rate) and a low K/BB ratio, which sat at 1.71 before his call-up to Kansas City.
On the flip side, Mayers did showcase an improvement in terms of generating more groundballs in his eight outings in Omaha. His 46.3 percent GB rate was his highest rate at both the Minor and Major League levels since he was in Triple-A Memphis in the Cardinals organization back in 2019.
Nonetheless, despite the improvement in inducing groundballs in Triple-A, it was surprising to Royals fans to see JJ Picollo tab Mayers replace Ryan Yarbrough when he was transferred to the 60-Day IL due to facial fractures.
Despite Royals fans’ initial skepticism, Mayers has absolutely flourished so far at the Major League level in his first three outings of the season, highlighted by him nearly contributing to a combined perfect game against the club that drafted him.
Let’s take a look at how Mayers has gotten there, and what Royals fans should expect from the veteran swingman going forward this season.
Limiting Sweet Spot and Hard-Hit Rate With the Royals
In three outings, the 31-year-old former Ole Miss product has produced a 1.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13.1 IP.
According to Savant, Mayers is producing a 26.4 percent K rate, a 9.4 percent BB rate, and a K-BB percentage of 17 percent. Those are not only improvements from his marks in Omaha but also much better than what he produced with the Angels last season as well.
Granted, his BB rate is 1.4 percent higher than his mark a year ago, but his K rate is 6.2 percent better and his K-BB percentage has improved by 4.9 percent as well. That’s a sign that Mayers’ command has improved under the tutelage of pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove.
Even though Mayers’ 3.24 xERA is slightly higher than his actual ERA, it is better than the 5.31 xERA in 2022 and even his 3.78 xERA in 2021, which was one of his better seasons in the Majors. Mayers is not just doing a solid job of maximizing strikeouts and limiting walks, but also minimizing hard contact as well so far against MLB hitters this season.
Mayers has seen a decrease in exit velocity on batted balls (89.7 MPH), sweet spot rate (26.5 percent), xwOBA (.284), and hard-hit rate (38.2 percent) from his 2022 season with the Angels.
The hard-hit rate is down 9.9 percent from a season ago, which is a positive sign. Then again though, based on his hard-hit rate rolling chart data, Mayers is simply back to being around league-average in his hard-hit rate allowed this year after being so astronomically subpar in this category a season ago, especially toward the end of his tenure with the Angels.
Conversely, his sweet-spot data shows a more positive trend that could give Royals fans hope for continued success from Mayers.
Based on Mayers’s career sweet-spot rate rolling chart, which shows how often a hitter produces a batted-ball event in the launch angle sweet-spot zone of 8-32 degrees, Mayers is continuing a trend that began at the tail end of his tenure with the Angels.
Notice how Mayers has been considerably below league-average in sweet-spot rate since the 650-batted-ball range a season ago.
Lastly, in terms of xwOBA, Mayers has done a much better job in terms of limiting the damage in the middle and glove-side areas of the zone.
Based on his xwOBA zone charts from both 2022 and 2023, Mayers is still getting hit hard on an xwOBA end in the arm side area of the strike zone. However, in the middle and glove side areas, Mayers has been a lot more successful, though it will be interesting to see how long that will persist as he pitches more innings with the Royals this season.
There’s definitely an element of batted-ball luck that’s been present in Mayers’ first few outings this year. His BABIP is .273 and his LOB% (strand rate) is 95.6 percent. Those percentages are bound to go up in the near future, especially as he faces better lineups.
Nonetheless, Mayers is doing what he needs to do to limit damaging contact against hitters. That is something Royals pitchers have struggled with this season, as evidenced by a 9.5 percent barrel rate allowed this year, which is the second-highest rate allowed by a pitching staff this year, according to Fangraphs.
A Look at Mayers’ Whiff and Strike Data (And How His Pitch Mix Affects Them)
As expected, one of the big reasons that Mayers has been more successful this season in comparison to a season ago is due to his ability to fill up the strike zone.
While the Royals pitching staff as a whole hasn’t really lived up to the “Raid the Zone” mantra this year, that can’t be said of Mayers, based on his strike data below, via Pitcher List:
Mayers is actually generating fewer chases (O-Sw%) and swinging strikes (SwStr%) this season so far in comparison to 2022. Despite that, he’s doing a much better of “raiding” the zone, which can be seen his 46.3 percent zone rate (60th percentile zone percentage), 19.4 percent called-strike percentage (77th percentile), and 31 percent CSW rate (66th percentile). Those are all significant improvements from the 2022 season.
So how is Mayers doing this?
A lot of his success could be credited to a minor adjustment in pitch mix this season, as he is leaning on his four-seamer less and sinker and slider more in Kansas City.
That can be seen in his pitch mix percentage chart via Savant.
Mayers’ 30.6 percent four-seam usage is the lowest mark of his career thus far. On the flip side, his sinker usage of 13 percent is the highest usage of his career and nearly 12 percent higher than a season ago when he first introduced the pitch.
What’s interesting to note is that the increased usage of the sinker itself hasn’t made a huge impact on a standalone basis. Rather, the increased usage of the sinker has made his four-seamer better, which can be seen in the run value metrics below, via Savant:
The four-seamer produced a run value of +4 last year with a K rate of 24 percent and a wOBA of .333. This season? That K rate is up to 28.6 percent and the wOBA is down to .243, which has had a benefit on his overall lines.
Furthermore, take a look at how his four-seamer has been much more impressive on a strike-generating end this season in comparison to a season ago.
The pitch isn’t generating fewer swinging strikes this year in comparison to 2022. That said, the called-strike percentage is nearly 10 percent higher and the 31.3 percent CSW rate on the four-seamer from the 25.7 mark a season ago is also a significant sign of progress.
Here’s a look at Mayers’ fastball from a season ago with the Angels and on Sunday against the Cardinals. Notice how much more life is on the four-seamer against Paul Goldschmidt (especially on a velocity end):
But it’s not just on a velocity end where Mayers’ four-seamer has succeeded.
There’s been some good movement on the four-seamer that mirrors closely to Mayers’ sinker, which doesn’t generate any swings and misses, but is a good setup pitch for his primary fastball.
The backdoor movement on the sinker freezes Padres catcher Austin Nola in this at-bat above. Though it didn’t produce a strikeout against Nola, one can see how hitters can have a hard time differentiating both fastball pitches, especially with the sinker being utilized more regularly than a season ago.
Lastly, let’s take a look at his slider, which has also seen some significant improvement from a season ago:
Mayers is throwing the slider less this season. However, he’s generating more chases (O-Swing%), more swinging strikes, and a better CSW with the Royals than his last season with the Angels.
A big reason for the increase in slider success is due to Mayers making the pitch more of a vertical offering rather than a horizontal breaking one.
Last year, Mayers’ slider had 38.6 inches of vertical drop and 4.1 inches of horizontal movement.
This season, the slider has showcased more vertical drop with a 41 inches mark. That said, it has come at the expense of horizontal movement, as evidenced by the 3.4 inches of break on the slider.
Here’s a look at the two from 2022 and 2023, and notice how the harder-dropping 2023 slider causes a chase from Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson while the 2022 offering does not (even if it does generate a called strike against Miami’s Jorge Soler).
Mayers does possess a deep six-pitch mix, which includes a cutter (9.3 percent usage), changeup (8.8 percent usage), and curveball (6.5 percent usage). Those other complementary pitches have been key to his success this year and keep opposing hitters guessing, especially if they are only seeing him one to two times in a game.
What will be key for Mayers going forward though is how his sinker, four-seamer, and slider trio continue to generate strikes.
If that mix continues to do so in future outings like it is now, Mayers will continue to give the Royals stability in the rotation or bullpen as a long reliever.
What is Mayers’ Outlook?
David Lesky of Inside the Crown had some great perspective on Mayers, and how his success is very “Rays-like”, which is what the Royals need to do if they want to turn the corner as an organization.
Here’s what Lesky said in his piece after Mayers’ solid outing against the Tigers:
I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that Mayers is anything more than a stopgap, but a difference in the way he pitches is something that intrigues me with the coaching staff. We point to the Rays a lot because they seem to churn out pitchers and I think it can get a little tired, but turning guys like Mayers into someone who can help, even if it’s for a month, is how they get through a long season. Jeffrey Springs was a 28-year old journeyman two years removed from an ERA over 7.00 as a reliever last year. He turned in a 2.46 ERA in 33 games last year for them. They signed him to a long-term deal and were rewarded with him needing Tommy John, but that’s the second part. Shawn Armstrong had a 4.57 ERA in 228.2 career innings heading into last season. He gave 55 innings with a 3.60 ERA for the Rays last year.
“Groovy Baby” by David Lesky; Inside the Crown
To be honest, Lesky hits the nail on the head when it comes to my own feelings about Mayers going forward.
There’s no question that Mayers is a good story this year for a Royals pitching staff that has been one of the worst in baseball, as I talked about in my most recent post. Picollo rested his cap on making the pitching in this organization a priority in his early tenure, and beyond the results in the lower levels, that hasn’t really come to fruition so far.
The pitching staff in Kansas City has been bad, especially the rotation. The pitching staff in Omaha hasn’t been much better, as demonstrated by the struggles of Jon Heasley and Jackson Kowar. The bullpen in Northwest Arkansas has been promising, but the rotation hasn’t shown a whole lot of consistency, as evidenced by Beck Way’s struggles and Alec Marsh cooling off after a hot start.
Nonetheless, Mayers is a rare success story who has given the Royals innings and production on the mound during a frustrating season.
Do I think Mayers is a long-term piece beyond 2023? Of course not. I am not sure we will be talking about him after the All-Star Break to be perfectly frank.
But he’s a prime example of the Royals finding a pitcher on the cheap who has a particular skill set (throwing strikes and generating groundballs) and maximizing his potential for a period of time at the Major League level.
The Royals used to be known for that with their bullpen during the 2013-2017 seasons.
It would be nice if Mayers could be a similar success story who could help spark a series of similar stories in the next year or two, especially as the Royals look to build their core for the long term.
Mayers is just the tip of the iceberg, though I hope his story continues because he’s a fun pitcher with an intriguing pitch mix who attacks hitters in a way that Royals fans haven’t seen too much so far in 2023.
Picollo and Quatraro need to find another Mayers or two this season to help bring much-needed hope to an already jaded Royals fanbase.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images
Mr. O’B, Kowar’s stuff and command are one thing, but it seems to me they’re babying him and I’m beginning to wonder if he might also be a head case. With the season shot to hell, would there be any value to just throwing him out there with the main club to see if he might just figure things out on his own steam?
Hi Terry, I am kinda confused by how they’re handling Kowar. It definitely feels like they’re nursing him along. I’m guessing they’re major plan is to utilize him more after they trade a lot of their current pieces by the Deadline. And honestly, I’m kind of okay with it because I’m not sure he’s really much of an upgrade right now from what they have in the current bullpen. I guess you could argue Cuas, but at least Cuas is more adept at producing groundballs than Kowar has at any level.
But I agree. It does feel like Kowar isn’t progressing as much as you would hope under the new regime, especially in Omaha and I think him staying in Omaha is only making the issue worse after he’s spent so much time there since 2021.
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