On Monday, Nick Kappel, the Royals’ Director of Media Relations, posted this interesting Tweet regarding the performance of the Royal’s starting pitchers over the past 10 days.
Of course, this is a small sample size, and figuring out which pitchers are lumped into this group is hard. Do “openers” like Carlos Hernandez and Josh Staumont count? Is Mike Mayers’ work as a “bulk reliever” following that opener incorporated into the sample? Unfortunately, Kappel doesn’t go into detail too much about those questions.
Nonetheless, Kappel’s Tweet prompted me to inquire about the Royals’ “main” starting pitchers over the past 30 days, which primarily have been Zack Greinke, Brady Signer, Daniel Lynch, and Jordan Lyles.
Surprisingly, they rank 11th in ERA as a staff over the past 30 days with a 4.11 mark, and they also rank 12th in fWAR, as of Monday, according to Fangraphs.
In the table below, Royals fans can take a look at how the Royals’ starting pitchers with 10 or more innings pitched over the past 30 days compare as well, via Fangraphs:
As one can see, there’s been some solid contributions from the staff, especially from Greinke and Lynch. While Singer and Lyles have been less impressive, they are showing signs of improvement, though it’s certainly coming at an incremental pace right now.
Let’s break down each of the four pitchers, and what Royals fans should expect and hope for from this group as we enter the hot summer months of play (i.e. June, July, and August).
Greinke: Powered by Secondary Offerings
Greinke for the season is posting a 4.19 ERA in 12 starts and 62.1 innings pitched. However, he was beset by a brutal April which saw him produce a 6.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25.2 IP.
Over the past 30 days though, Greinke is posting a 2.73 ERA and 3.55 FIP in 26.1 IP. Greinke has showcased his vintage pinpoint command over this past month, as he is not only producing a BB/9 of 1.03 but also a K/BB ratio of 7.33, which leads all Royals starting pitchers over the past 30 days.
Thus, it’s not a surprise that Greinke was named the Royals’ “Pitcher of the Month” for May.
A big reason for Greinke’s success this season has been his ability to maximize the effectiveness and usage of his secondary pitches. Below is a look at his PLV metrics on his pitch arsenal so far this season, and notice how many of his secondary offerings rate as above-average pitches on a PLV end.
His four-seamer and sinker rate as below-average offerings (below five), according to PLV. However, his slider, curve, change, and cutter all profile as considerably above-average pitches. That is a big reason why his overall PLV is respectable at 5.13 (and translates to a 3.05 PLA, which is PLV’s ERA equivalent).
Additionally, Greinke is also using all of those pitches above 10 percent of the time, so Greinke is definitely getting mileage out of those secondary offerings this season.
Over the past month though, Greinke has utilized the four-seamer more, which can be seen in the pitch usage chart below via Savant:
That said, Greinke’s four-seam increase makes sense because on a swing-and-miss end, it’s been one of his most effective and consistent pitches so far, which can be seen in the chart below:
The four-seamer has seen a slight increase in whiff rate from April to May, though not as sharp an increase as the slider (yellow) or sinker (orange). His changeup and curveball whiff rate did dip a bit from April to May, so it will be interesting to see how those pitches develop in the month of June.
Lynch: Promising Early Results
Lynch has only had two starts and 10 innings, so the sample size is quite small. However, we have seen a slight difference from Lynch this year in how he’s attacking hitters, as evidenced by the pitch usage chart below via Savant:
Notice how Lynch is decreasing his usage of “fastball” category pitches, as his four-seamer and sinker have seen a decline in usage from 2022 and even 2021.
On the other hand, he has pumped up the usage of his changeup (22.5 percent) and breaking offerings such as his curve (6.8 percent) and slider (31.4 percent).
So far, the results have been pretty good for Lynch, especially on the slider and changeup, both on a batted-ball and whiff end.
Interestingly enough, I’m curious to see how his four-seamer will develop as he makes more starts at the Major League level.
His four-seam velocity is down one MPH in terms of velocity from a season ago, but it’s averaging a bit more spin this season. It’s not a great swing-and-miss pitch, and it’s been hit hard, but it seems to be setting up his slider and changeup well, which are profiling well in nearly every category this season.
Here’s an example of his changeup freezing Stone Garrett of the Nationals for the strikeout (he’s obviously sitting fastball):
Lynch is off to a good start, but if his four-seamer can return closer to 2022 numbers, then I think Lynch could be even better than what he’s demonstrated in his first two starts.
Lyles: Hurt Mostly by the Long Ball Still
I have already talked about Jordan Lyles at length in a previous post not too long ago, but I just wanted to cover some key points with the pitcher who’s drawn the ire of most Royals fans this season (especially with Hunter Dozier gone).
Lyles doesn’t have a great pitch mix by PLV standards, though his overall PLV is only 0.05 points below the league average, according to PLV data.
Below is a look at his PLV metrics, and Royals fans should notice how his slider has been a pretty good offering this season, as has his cutter (though he has only utilized that pitch six percent of the time).
Unfortunately, the rest of his pitch mix has been pretty below-average, including his four-seamer which is producing a 4.78 PLV and 4.32 PLA so far this season.
A big issue with his four-seamer is that it’s giving up a boatload of barrels and home runs this season, which can be seen in the chart via Savant:
Notice how the number of home runs on the fastball in May doubled from April. That is not a good sign for a guy who’s been trending in the wrong direction in terms of his barrel rate allowed.
Lyles is doing a better job limiting walks over the past thirty days, as his 2.30 K/BB ratio demonstrates. But until he solves that home run and barrels allowed issue…
Well, let’s just say it’s going to be a long season for Royals fans with Lyles.
Singer: Continuing Chase Issues
Surprisingly, of the group of four pitchers, Singer leads the group in overall CSW rate. That said, he is dead last in chase rate (O-Swing%) and by a considerable margin to boot.
Notice that Singer is nearly nine percent worse than Lyles in terms of O-Swing%. That is a big reason why Singer also has the worst K-BB% of that group at 9.3 percent as well.
I have talked about it before on this blog with Singer, but it’s going to be hard for Singer to generate more chases in the long term without adding to his current pitch mix.
In his last couple of outings, Singer has made some adjustments with his primary two pitches. His slider is becoming as a swing-and-miss pitch again (like in 2022) and his sinker generating consistent called strikes is a positive step in the right direction.
Both were on full display against the Nationals two Sundays ago.
That said, based on his PLV chart, Singer is putting an enormous amount of pressure on his sinker and slider to be effective in the long term. Any kind of regression in either pitch is going to produce mediocre results, which has been the case this season.
It’s interesting to see that his changeup actually is his second-best pitch on a PLV end this season. Thus, it’s surprising to see Singer not utilize it more in his arsenal.
Unfortunately, Singer continues to stay steadfast with his sinker and slider as his main two pitches, as Singer only threw three changeups in his most recent outing against the Rockies. Granted, it didn’t hurt him too much, as he struck out seven, walked zero, and allowed zero runs in 5.2 IP.
Singer is going to need to find a way to be better in terms of generating swings outside the strike zone, especially since he ranks in the bottom ninth percentile in that category, according to Savant.
Can Singer do that without a third pitch?
He sort of did that in 2022 and his slider has seen a dramatic increase in chase rate this month in his one start after being pretty stagnant in April and May (though his sinker appears to be trending in the opposite direction).
So maybe that chase rate improvement could happen again for Singer in 2023, starting in June.
Photo Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images
Mr. O’B, I’ve often wondered about Singer: could his non-development of a third pitch be sheer ego and stubbornness on his part?
Honestly hard to tell but leaning that it’s probably stubbornness and lack of confidence in the pitch. The thing is that he’s so good with his two other pitches he’s gotten away with it for so long but we’re starting to see his lack of ability to pivot when one of those pitches isn’t working is catching up to him
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