When the Royals signed Jordan Lyles to a two-year, $17 million contract this offseason, it was to give the Royals rotation a veteran starter who could eat innings in 2023 and 2024 until the younger pitchers in the Royals system were fully ready to take over the starting rotation long term.
Was Lyles the best starter available on the free-agent market this offseason?
Of course not. However, for a team with a new GM and manager, and coming off a 65-97 season, it was likely that Lyles was the best pitcher they could acquire without severely overpaying either in the dollar amount or years.
Nonetheless, while the Lyles signing was a “meh” acquisition this offseason, it has really gone off the rails in the first two months of the MLB season.
On Friday, the Royals lost 12-10 to the Washington Nationals, who came into the 2023 season with similarly low expectations as Kansas City.
A big reason for that loss was Lyles imploding in the sixth inning, as he gave up four of the five total runs he allowed in the game in that inning before getting pulled (without recording an out either). Washington’s Corey Dickerson ended Lyles’ night by hitting a three-run home run that gave the Nationals a 5-2 lead at the time (the lead would eventually balloon to 9-2, due to a four-runs-allowed performance by Josh Staumont).
For the game, Lyles gave up five runs on six hits and three walks while only striking out two in five innings of work. That brought his season ERA up to 7.30 and WHIP to 1.38 in 11 starts and 61.2 IP. Of Royals pitchers who have thrown 10 or more innings this year, Lyles is dead last with an fWAR of -0.4.
That is not what Royals fans expected to see, especially from a player who is the second-highest-paid player on the Royals’ active roster after Salvador Perez, according to Roster Resource payroll data (Lyles moves up into the spot after Dozier was designated for assignment).
To make matters worse, it appears that Lyles is on pace to have a historically bad season, as pointed out by Kansas City sports pundit Rany Jazayerli on Twitter last night:
I do find it ironic that a guy who helped found Baseball Prospectus would be referencing “wins” of all stats, but his point still is true nonetheless.
Lyles is not good right now. And thus, I am not sure with how he is currently pitching how many more starts he should get, especially with the Royals sitting 22 games under .500 with a 15-37 record, as of Saturday.
Let’s take a deeper dive into what Lyles has done this season in Kansas City, what the difference has been from his previous season in Baltimore, and what manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo should explore with their veteran pitcher for the remainder of this year to help him turn it around.
Lyles’ Complicated Struggles With Batted Balls
When looking at Lyles’ stats, it’s hard to point out one area that has been the primary cause of Lyles’ struggles with the Royals. At the surface level, the two biggest issues that have plagued Lyles have been the home runs allowed and the upticks in walks.
Let’s take a look at the home runs first, and honestly, just his general issues with batted balls this season in Kansas City.
This season, according to Fangraphs, Lyles is giving up an HR/9 of 2.34 and an HR/FB rate of 15.1 percent. Those are increases of 1.03 points and 3.7 percentage points, respectively.
It’s been common for Royals fans to see Lyles give up the longball either in person at the K or on TV, much like this leadoff home run given up to Washington’s Lane Thomas on Friday night:
What’s incredible about these home run jumps is that while Lyles has seen a jump in barrel rate from his last season in Baltimore (10.4 percent in 2022 to 12.4 percent in 2023), his hard-hit rate has actually gone down from 38.8 percent last year to 35.8 this year in Kansas City.
In fact, his rolling hard-hit chart this season is actually a lot lower than what it was two seasons ago when he was pitching with the Texas Rangers.
In addition, Lyles is also posting an insanely low BABIP at .247, but his strand rate (LOB%) is also low at 48.7 percent.
On one hand, Lyles has been lucky (BABIP), and on the other end (LOB%) he’s been extremely unlucky. The former 2008 38th overall pick hasn’t necessarily given up a plethora of hits on the mound (as evidenced by the BABIP), but when he does give up hits, they have been damaging on a run’s end.
The average launch angle increase on batted balls this season explains these two statistical discrepancies a bit.
While Lyles could never be categorized as a “groundball-inducing” pitcher by any means, he does possess a career GB percentage of 44.5 percent. This season, that groundball percentage is 29.6 percent, a nearly 11 percentage point dip from a season ago.
A big reason for that dip is that hitters are elevating the ball against Lyles more than ever, which can be seen in the rolling launch angle chart, via Savant.
As a result of this launch angle uptick, Lyles is giving up more homers than usual this season, even at Kauffman Stadium, which has typically profiled as a park that is hard to hit home runs at. In six outings this year at the K, he’s given up 10 home runs in 38 innings of work.
Lyles is doing what he normally does when it comes to limiting consistent hard contact.
However, until he is able to generate more groundballs or decrease hitters’ launch angles on batted balls, the home runs could continue to be an issue this season going forward, especially as the weather gets warmer, which would cause the ball to fly even more.
Walks and Lyles’ Inconsistency in Generating Strikes
In his first 11 starts this season, Lyles’ walk numbers don’t look pretty by any means.
His BB/9 is 3.36 and his BB percentage is 8.5 percent. Both are significant increases from a season ago and far above his career norms (career 3.04 BB/9). Furthermore, his K/BB ratio is 1.96, which is nearly 0.80 points down from his ratio in Baltimore last season.
A big issue for Lyles on the mound is that he is not just struggling with walks but throwing strikes in general.
His zone percentage of 39.5 percent and his first-strike percentage of 61.3 percent both rank 11th of the 15 qualified Royals pitchers with 15 or more innings pitched. Furthermore, his called-strike percentage of 14.5 percent ranks 12th and his 22.3 percent CSW rate ranks 14th of that group of Royals pitchers.
Safe to say, Lyles isn’t going to find much success on the mound if he can’t generate strikes on a consistent basis. And his struggles with generating strikes consistently have contributed to a lack of swings and chases from opposing hitters this season through the first couple of months as well.
Hitters are opting for a patient approach with Lyles, and that has contributed to career lows in many different plate discipline categories, which can be seen in this table below via Pitcher List.
What’s interesting about Lyles’ season thus far is that the pitch quality of his six-pitch arsenal remains relatively the same from a season ago when he was with the Orioles. His PLV metrics on his pitch mix are around the same, which can be seen in the chart comparison below:
The quality of his four-seamer has decreased by 24 points, as has his sinker by 10 points. However, his slider, curveball, and changeup have also seen positive improvement from a season ago. Thus, his overall PLV of 4.94 and PLA of 3.84 this season is actually an improvement from his 2022 with the Orioles.
That shows that Lyles has made some decent changes this season in his pitch quality and shape under Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove, the Royals’ pitching coaches.
The big difference though that is contributing to the massive difference in ERA from last year (4.42) and this year (7.30) has been command.
Until Lyles can iron out the mechanics which is preventing him from throwing strikes, the slight improvement in pitch quality won’t matter over the long haul this season. He will continue to either walk hitters who stay patient or give up meatballs due to him being in less-than-ideal counts because of his inability to throw first-pitch strikes.
Does Lyles Need a Change of Role?
The big issue right now for the Royals pitching staff is that they need pitchers who can not just throw strikes but have the stamina and health to eat innings as well. Lyles has been able to do the latter for the most part, as he leads all Royals pitchers in innings pitched.
On the other hand, as evidenced by the data presented in this post, he hasn’t really succeeded with the former, and it may not happen soon unless something mechanically changes soon.
The Royals unfortunately are stuck with Lyles for now. He’s making too much money, and it’s unlikely that owner John Sherman will want to eat two big contracts within such a short period of time.
That said, would a change in role perhaps benefit Lyles?
Here’s a look at Lyles’ through-the-order splits this season, via Fangraphs.
It’s interesting to note that Lyles has gotten off to slow starts when facing a batting order for the first time, and he has struggled when he’s been facing them a third time through. Conversely, when facing an opposing batting order a second time, the numbers actually aren’t that bad.
His K/BB ratio when facing a batting order a second time is 3.00, and his FIP is 4.92. This is a stark contrast to the 1.64 K/BB ratio when facing a batting order initially and the 1.14 ratio when facing them a third time.
Thus, could Lyles see better results while piggybacking off an opener like Carlos Hernandez, who has shown that he can succeed in the role?
Coming in during the third inning could help give him a boost, mostly because he would be following a pitcher who is sharply different than him.
Hernandez is a guy who can pump 100 MPH and relies heavily on a limited three-pitch mix. Lyles on the other hand averages only 91.1 MPH on the four-seamer, but has six pitches, with his breaking offerings being pretty decent on a pitch quality end, via PLV data.
Hitters would need to adjust to that vastly different mix, and that could give Lyles the advantage he needs to go four or five innings before handing things off to the bullpen in the 7th or 8th.
The fact of the matter is that the Royals are stuck with Lyles for now, and it’s unlikely that he will command much, if anything, by the Trade Deadline unless something dramatic happens soon. Putting him as a middle-innings guy following an opener could be a strategy to not only salvage his value but salvage his confidence as well for the time being.
Plus, the Royals don’t have a whole lot of starting options in Omaha right now, though Daniel Lynch could help provide a nice boost, as he is expected to make his debut on Sunday in the series finale against the Nationals.
This season hasn’t gone as planned for Lyles, and he’s seemed to be the new whipping boy for frustrated Royals fans now that Dozier is no longer in the organization.
That said, Quatraro and Picollo have nothing to lose by moving Lyles to this new role, especially with the losses continuing to mount, despite strong performances from the young hitters as of late.
Let’s see if Q and JJ will make that bold move with Lyles, even if may be new territory for him at 32 years of age.
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Mr. O’B, what do you think about trying to develop Nate Eaton as a pitcher? Although unlikely to become a starter, he could join the ‘pen and be available to pinch-hit or run or be a late inning defensive replacement. This way you would have a valuable extra utility guy without using a roster spot for it.
Mr. O’B, what do you think about trying to develop Nate Eaton as a pitcher? Although unlikely to become a starter, he could join the ‘pen and be available as a pinch-hitter or runner or a late-inning defensive sub. This way you would have a valuable extra utility guy without having to use up a roster spot
I think it’s possible, but I think that wouldn’t happen until the offseason, where he could fully train and commit to being a reliever. I like the idea, but I think he would need more time to develop as a reliever before making that full transition.
[…] season, and that’s putting it lightly. Brady Singer looks like a shell of his 2022 self, and in my most recent post, I argued that manager Matt Quatraro may have to think creatively about Jordan Lyles going […]
[…] have already talked about Jordan Lyles at length in a previous post not too long ago, but I just wanted to cover some key points with the pitcher who’s drawn the ire of most […]
[…] Royals need starting pitching desperately right now, and if they are willing to trot out Jordan Lyles every five days, they should do the same with Singer, hoping he can make adjustments gradually with each and every […]
[…] of July 5th, the Royals rank 27th in ERA as a starting pitching staff, and Jordan Lyles has struggled to give pitch productively as their primary free-agent pitcher signing this past offseason. Thus, the Royals need a healthy […]
[…] However, Brady Singer, who finished 2022 as the Royals’ best starter, didn’t get enough work in Spring Training due to his “bench” tenure with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Furthermore, the other starter the Royals acquired in free agency was Jordan Lyles, who has been…well…not good to put it lightly. […]