Before Sunday’s series finale against the Tigers, Jaylon Thompson, the Royals beat writer for the KC Star, shared this news regarding the Royals replacement for Alec Marsh, who was recently put on the IL.
With Jordan Lyles on the inactive list, it seemed likely that the Royals were contemplating Bowlan or Daniel Lynch, also pitching in Omaha, for Marsh’s spot in the rotation on Monday against the Jays. Unlike Bowlan, though, Lynch has failed to impress in Triple-A this season.
In five starts and 23.2 IP, Lynch has a 6.46 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. He only has a K% of 17% and a K-BB% of 8.9%, which are both lackluster marks considering he has pitched 252 innings at the Major League level.
Thus, though Lynch had the edge on Bowlan regarding MLB experience, JJ Picollo opted to go with Bowlan, who’s been performing significantly better in Triple-A in 2024.
With the Royals needing a solid start against the Blue Jays after losing two straight to the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park over the weekend, what can Royals fans expect from Bowlan, who’s back in a starting role after flip-flopping between the rotation and bullpen in 2023?
Here are three things that Royals fans can pay attention to with Bowlan in his first MLB start of the 2024 season.
Bowlan Primarily Relies On His Four-Seamer and Slider
Bowlan has sported a five-pitch mix at the Major and Minor League levels over the past two seasons. However, the 2018 2nd-round pick has primarily leaned on his four-seamer and slider, especially this season in Omaha.
Bowlan utilizes a sinker (12.9% usage), a curveball (7.6% usage), and a changeup (6.2%). However, his four-seamer and slider have been utilized a combined 73.2% this year with the Storm Chasers. Thus, if Bowlan ever returns to the bullpen, it’s likely that his pitch repertoire will focus on those two pitches, with maybe the other three sprinkled in here and there.
He remains a starter, mixing his other three offerings to keep hitters honest. The effectiveness of his four-seamer and slider will determine his success at the Major League level, not just on Monday but long term.
Statcast can compile data on Triple-A games this season. Thus, let’s examine his four-seamer and how it has looked thus far in Omaha.
Bowlan has been effective with his four-seamer in generating whiffs and strikeouts while minimizing hard contact and base hits thus far with the Storm Chasers. His xwOBA under .300 and hard-hit rate under 40% on his four-seamer hint that his four-seamer can be effective at the Major League level, even though it doesn’t have elite movement.
Here’s a look at how Bowlan has located his four-seamer within the strike zone this year and the pitch velocity in each area he’s located the offering in Omaha.
As Royals fans can see, Bowlan does a good job locating his four-seamer up in the zone, which is what one wants to see with that pitch. He also has thrown the pitch at its highest velocity up in the zone, which probably explains the high strikeout rate with the four-seamer this season in Omaha.
Here’s an example of Bowlan effectively locating his four-seamer against Detroit a season ago when he earned a call-up at the end of the 2023 season.
Now, via Savant, let’s look at Bowlan’s slider and how it has fared in Triple-A this year.
The numbers on Bowlan’s slider this year have been certainly impressive, especially regarding K% and Whiff%. Furthermore, he has effectively limited hits and hard contact on the slider, as evidenced by his .221 xwOBA and 23.5% hard-hit rate.
Regarding slider location, Bowlan focuses on commanding the breaking offering in one particular area: low and away. That approach has been successful for Bowlan in Omaha this year, especially when Royals fans see the K% in the lower glove-side end of the strike zone.
At the Major League level last season, his slider also proved to be a strong pitch when thrown in that part of the strike zone. In the clip below, Bowlan generated a swing and miss from Detroit’s Javy Baez on a slider thrown in that area.
Royals fans should pay attention to how the Blue Jays fare against his four-seamer and slider on Monday, especially since the Blue Jays tend to be a patient team that does not chase out of the zone often (their 28.2% O-Swing% is third-lowest in the league, according to Fangraphs).
Bowlan Limiting the Walks Again
When it comes to Bowlan’s profile as a pitcher, he has been known for his impeccable control, especially when he was a prospect early in his Minor League career.
I wrote about Bowlan’s prospect outlook a year ago on this blog, and what stuck out to me was this comment from MLB Pipeline in his 2020 report:
Bowlan is a physical presence on the mound who intimidates opposing hitters with his hulking 6-foot-6, 262-pound frame. He commands his plus fastball well, sitting at 92-95 mph and touching 97 with sinking action that nets him groundball outs. His low-80s slider will flash plus with tilt and sharp break to it, though he still needs to work on the consistency of the pitch. He has some feel for his changeup, giving him the chance for a third Major League offering. He pounds the zone with all three pitches and led Royals farmhands with a 6.52 strikeout-to-walk rate in his first full season, showing plus control with command that one day could earn a similar grade.
Jonathan Bowlan, No. 9; Royals Top 30 Prospects for 2020; MLB Pipeline
Bowlan certainly is a breath of fresh air for a Royals pitching staff that traditionally has struggled with control, especially from their drafted and developed arms.
He struggled to regain control in 2022 and 2023 after returning from Tommy John surgery in 2021.
According to Fangraphs, his K/BB ratio in Omaha was 1.81 last year, and in 2022, it was 1.76 in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. However, as can be seen in the table below, he was able to return to his career norms in Omaha this season.
Bowlan didn’t walk a single batter in his lone three innings in the big leagues last year. While it’s a small sample, it’s still a promising sign, especially since Bowlan’s control rated so highly as a pitching prospect.
Thus, it is likely that his Omaha stats are an extension of him not just throwing the ball for more strikes at the end of the year but finally recovering from TJ, which affected him over the past two seasons.
What Role Will Bowlan Have Long Term in Kansas City?
Bowlan’s stuff looked electric in 2023, which was a big reason why he earned a call-up to the Major Leagues at the end of the season.
He certainly has the velocity and command to blow by hitters, not just at the Minor League level but also at the Major League level. In fact, it was always worth watching Bowlan start a year ago on MiLB TV, even though Bowlan was 26 years old last season, which is old for a prospect.
The former Memphis Tiger can strike batters out and limit the walks, which are both major positives. However, will Bowlan be able to utilize that profile in a long-term starting role, or will he help the Royals more out of the bullpen?
It seems like the Royals are opting to move Anthony Veneziano to the bullpen, who came up with Bowlan in the Royals system as a starter. Veneziano was called up initially when Jordan Lyles was put on the inactive list, but both of Veneziano’s appearances have been in relief.
The Royals need Bowlan to make a spot start now due to their lack of options. That said, it is unclear whether this will be a one-time thing or if Bowlan will continue getting starts as long as Marsh is out.
Monday will be a good measuring stick for Bowlan and the Royals, who will continue to determine who will be part of the Royals rotation for the remainder of this season but also in 2025 and beyond.
Photo Credit: MLB.com
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