I was able to go to the last Royals regular game at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday, which was my 28th of the season at the K. I was hoping for the Royals to complete the sweep of the Blue Jays, not only to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but also to improve my in-person record to 14-14 for the year.
Alas, it was not to be. The Blue Jays avoided the sweep and collected their 90th win of the season with an 8-5 victory in the Sunday series finale. With the win, Toronto clinched a postseason berth.
Kudos to the Blue Jays for avoiding the sweep and stopping the bleeding, unlike the Detroit Tigers, who have now lost six in a row and are barely holding off the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central division race. Detroit travels to Cleveland on Tuesday to begin a massive series that could determine the Central Division champion by the end of the week.
Sunday was a must-win for the Blue Jays, and they did just that in a three-run victory, showing why they are in first place in the AL East division over the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
Granted, a sweep was going to be a tall task for a Royals team that has hovered around .500 for most of 2025. Winning the season series against a now 90-win Blue Jays team is an accomplishment. Winning five of six? Well, that may have just been too much to ask, especially for a Royals team that is pretty much out of the postseason hunt.
On a positive note, at least the Royals gave themselves a shot to get the sweep in their 2025 regular-season home finale.
Michael Wacha gave up three runs in the second inning, and the lineup was no-hit by Toronto starter Trey Yesavage through 3.1 IP. However, the Boys in Blue ended up scrapping enough offense to get within a run of the Blue Jays by the end of the sixth, as it was 6-5 at that point in the game.
Salvador Perez drove in a key run in their attempted comeback, which helped him tie Hal McRae for second all-time in Royals franchise history for RBI.
Unfortunately, the Royals’ bullpen gave up a couple of more runs, and the offense didn’t have anything left in the tank. That’s been an all too familiar story for the Royals in 2025, thus explaining their 78-78 record with six games to go.
Sunday’s loss wasn’t necessarily a disappointment or gut punch by any means. Instead, it was another example of the flaws and promise that the Royals demonstrated this season.
Big Innings Hurt Wacha in Final Home Start
It’s been a season of slight regression, who matched last year’s innings total after Sunday’s start. In 30 starts and 166.2 IP, Wacha has posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. His ERA is a 65-point increase from a season ago, and his WHIP is five points higher as well.
A significant factor in his regression this year has been his decline in strikeout rate.
After posting a 21.2% K rate in 2024 with the Royals, his strikeout rate is 17.5%, a 3.7% decline. In fact, his strikeout rate this year is a career low, and the first time it’s been under 20% since 2019, his last season in St. Louis, when it was 18.5%.
Notice in his rolling K chart over his career from Baseball Savant how Wacha has consistently been below average in terms of recording strikeouts this season, which hasn’t been the case in previous years.
Wacha has never been a high-strikeout pitcher. His 20.5% career strikeout rate is roughly 1.7% below the league average. However, while Wacha’s 6.1% walk rate was a 0.5% improvement from the previous year, it wasn’t enough to make up for his decline in ability to punch batters out this season.
When looking at Wacha’s profile via TJ Stats, his stuff profiles as mediocre, according to TJ Stuff+. That explains not only the lack of strikeouts but also the lackluster metrics in other important pitching categories as well, as seen below.
On a positive note, Wacha has done a good job of throwing strikes and inducing bad swings this year, as illustrated by his 53.3% zone rate and 28.6% chase rate. However, his whiff rate is low at 21% and his xwOBACON is around average at .374. With an overall TJ Stuff+ over 97, it’s not surprising that things can get out of hand for Wacha when he’s not locating properly.
Today was an example of Wacha demonstrating the good and bad of his pitching style.
On one end, Wacha gave up six runs on eight hits and one walk in five innings of work, which isn’t good, especially for a starter who’s been seen as their go-to guy in the wake of injuries to Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Kris Bubic this season. Conversely, he bounced back after a rough second inning and kept the Royals in the game.
Here’s a look at what his pitching summary looked like from today’s start via TJ Stats.
Wacha’s strengths were on full display on Sunday. His zone rate was 53.9% and he generated a 36.6% chase rate. This is despite sporting a 93 TJ Stuff+, which was four points lower than his season average (he also didn’t have a pitch on Sunday with a TJ Stuff+ mark in the 100 range).
Unfortunately, his whiff rate was poor at 13.6%, as was his xwOBACON at .457. His changeup, which has been his best pitch this year (102 TJ Stuff+), was particularly hit hard, as illustrated by Toronto’s .694 xwOBACON against Wacha’s most-used offering on Sunday.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushed a Wacha changeup left up in the zone for a double that added to Toronto’s lead in the fifth. The base hit had an exit velocity of 108.2 MPH and traveled 414 feet. Initially, from my seat, I thought it was going to be a home run, and it’s easy to see why when looking at a clip of it below.
It wasn’t a brutal start for Wacha, like his last one earlier in the week against Seattle, when he gave up seven runs on nine hits in 2.2 IP. That said, it’s evident that Wacha is pretty much out of gas stuff-wise. He was crafty enough to get through five innings on Sunday, but any starts for the remainder of the season (likely in Sacramento) will probably look like this, if not worse.
With Seth Lugo shut down for the remainder of the season, one has to wonder if GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro will do the same with Wacha, especially with Bailey Falter on a rehab stint at this time.
The Royals need to think about Wacha’s health and projection, especially with him having at least two guaranteed years left on his current deal (he has a club option in 2028, according to Spotrac).
Big Hits From Young Royals Players
While the offense was dormant for nearly four innings, the Royals got a spark starting in the fourth inning, thanks to contributions from key young players in this Royals lineup.
Carter Jensen, who’s been sensational in his MLB debut this month, got the scoring started for the Royals in the fourth with a clutch two-out single that drove in two runs.
Maikel Garcia, who made the All-Star team this year and has an fWAR over five, also came up with a clutch hit that helped get the Royals on the board in the fifth inning. Perez collected his historic RBI after Garcia’s big hit.
Lastly, Jac Caglianone, who’s had his fair share of struggles in his MLB debut, came up with a huge triple in the seventh. It was the first career triple for Cags, and he was able to score on a Randal Grichuk pinch-hit single.
Yes, the Royals lost. However, if they are going to lose, especially a team that is clearly better than them, it’s nice to see the solid performances come from guys who will be around in 2026 and beyond.
Furthermore, the Royals had promising approaches at the plate on Sunday, especially from some key hitters with upside.
They forced out Yesavage in the fifth inning after tagging him for four runs on five hits and three walks. Royals hitters had a hard-hit rate of 50%, a barrel rate of 12.5%, and a Max EV of 113.8 MPH. All those marks were better than the Blue Jays. The difference? The Blue Jays had an xBA of .326 while the Royals had one of .315.
Thus, it’s not surprising that the Blue Jays edged the Royals in the Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter today.
The Royals may have collected another in the loss column today. That said, there were a lot of promising at-bats from young Royals hitters today whom Picollo should be building around for 2026 and beyond. That doesn’t just include Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvy anymore, but also guys like Garcia, Jensen, Cags, and Vinnie Pasquantino.
That’s a heck of a foundation to start with this offseason.
Now they need to find the right complementary position player pieces, because Hunter Renfroe and Jonathan India haven’t cut it over the past two seasons.
Photo Credit: Kevin O’Brien