The Royals dropped the rubber game of their three-game series with the Seattle Mariners on Thursday afternoon. They lost 2-0 in a game that was all too typical of many Kansas City defeats this season (i.e., great pitching, non-existent hitting).
With the loss, the Royals’ record fell to 76-77, officially eliminating them from any shot of winning the AL Central title this season.
At this point in the season, with only three series remaining (Blue Jays at home, Angels, and Athletics on the road), the playoff dream is nearly dead (pretty much 0.0%, according to Fangraphs). Thus, the series loss isn’t really all that deflating, especially against a team that was clearly better than Kansas City, and lived up to their 84-69 record.
Even though the Royals lost another series in September (they are now 6-10 this month), there were some positive takeaways from this past three-game set against Seattle. Let’s take a look at those three encouraging stories from the start of this homestand, the Royals’ final at Kauffman Stadium for the 2025 season.
Ragans’ Electric Return to the K
Royals Opening Day starter Cole Ragans hadn’t pitched since June 5th due to a rotator cuff injury.
The former Texas Ranger only accumulated 11 starts and 52.1 IP before landing on the IL for most of the season. In that small sample pre-injury, Ragans posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, much worse than the 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP marks he produced in 186.1 IP last season.
Safe to say, his performance this year hasn’t quite matched what he did in 2024 when he finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting behind winner Tarik Skubal and runners-up Seth Lugo and Emmanuel Clase.
Even with the Royals clearly out of the playoff race, the Royals opted to bring back Ragans to get in some work on Wednesday, albeit with a strict 60-pitch limit. While some Royals fans disagreed with the decision, given that the season was clearly lost, the move was necessary with the starting pitching injury issues and the need to see what Ragans would look like for 2026.
Safe to say, Ragans’ performance was encouraging, especially in the first inning. He absolutely dominated All-Stars Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodriguez, inducing all of them to strikeout on only 11 pitches (with most of them fastballs).
Pitcher List’s Nick Pollack recapped Ragans’ first inning on Twitter. Safe to say, his reactions during Ragans’ inning pretty much matched my enthusiasm at the stadium while watching him in person on Wednesday evening.
Ragans gave up a home run on a mistake challenge pitch to Eugenio Suarez in the second inning (after walking Jorge Polanco) that made the game 3-2 in the second inning. Nonetheless, the 27-year-old’s performance was “ace-like” in a 62-pitch sample.
In 3.2 IP, he allowed two runs on one hit and two walks while striking out four. According to his TJ Stats metrics, not only did his stuff profile well, but he also generated intense chase and whiff rates, as well as xwOBACON numbers.
Ragans produced 13 whiffs overall, a 35.1% rate. His four-seamer generated a 36.4% whiff rate, and his slider produced a 40% whiff rate. When it came to swings and misses, this is what Ragans’ pitch chart looked like yesterday, via Savant.
The pitch chart above is an example of what a power pitcher like Ragans does when he’s feeling it. Eight of his 13 whiffs generated were four-seamers, and he kept the fastball up and with solid stuff and velocity numbers. His four-seamer averaged 95.7 MPH on Wednesday and also sported a 108 TJ Stuff+ and 64 grade.
Ragans seemed pretty amped in the first inning, as indicated in his pitch velocity chart from the game. However, while he did see some regression in velocity in the following innings, his pitches sat at an average velocity level that showed his shoulder was 100 percent or close to that.
It wasn’t a quality start technically, and he didn’t qualify for the victory. However, Ragans showed Royals fans, especially those in attendance at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday, that he’s back and ready to be Kansas City’s ace again next season.
Kolek Continues to Thrive in KC
The Royals got some bad news on Wednesday after the game, as they announced that they had to shut down Ryan Bergert for the remainder of the season due to elbow tightness. Michael Lorenzen, who pitched one inning of relief in the Royals’ 8-5 win, would replace him in the rotation on Friday.
In 19 appearances, 15 starts, and 76.1 IP with the Padres and Royals this season, Bergert posted a 3.66 ERA, 4.19 xERA, and 1.26 WHIP. While he’s hit some struggles in his past two starts with the Royals (11 runs and 15 hits allowed in 7.1 IP), he’s been a revelation for the Royals since being acquired from San Diego in the Freddy Fermin trade.
That said, while Bergert is out, the Royals did receive another arm in the trade: Stephen Kolek. After starting in Omaha when initially coming over from the Padres, Kolek has absolutely thrived on the mound with the Royals since debuting with his new org on August 30th.
In four outings, he’s produced four quality starts and has allowed only six runs on 15 hits and three walks in 27 IP. He also has 19 strikeouts over that period.
On Wednesday, Kolek had his best start as a Royal. In 7.1 IP against the Mariners, he allowed only two runs (one earned) on two hits and one walk. He also struck out eight and produced a 30% CSW on 99 pitches.
Here’s a look at what he did in his TJ Stats metrics from today’s start.
Kolek didn’t generate a ton of whiffs, as evidenced by his nine whiffs and 17% whiff rate. However, he flooded the strike zone (53.5%), generated a lot of chase (43.5%), and limited hard contact (.313 xwOBACON). With six offerings, including five that he threw over 10% of the time, Kolek looked very much like Lugo in 2024.
If fully healthy, the Royals will have tremendous depth in the rotation in 2026, with Kolek being the latest success story. Barring an injury setback down the stretch or in Spring Training, Kansas City will have a rotation that consists of Ragans, Kolek, Bergert, Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and possibly Alec Marsh and/or Kyle Wright.
At the very least, pitching should continue to be a strength of this organization in 2026. That should help them bounce back in the standings next year as long as some offensive reinforcements are added this offseason.
Jensen Should Be Key Piece in 2026
After playing sparingly initially, manager Matt Quatraro gave rookie Carter Jensen more at-bats against the Mariners, and the Park Hill High School product took full advantage.
In 10 plate appearances, Jensen collected five hits and two walks while only striking out three times against Seattle, who have a tough pitching staff. He also hit his first two home runs of the year, both coming in game one of the series on Tuesday.
Over this three-game span, the 22-year-old catcher raised his batting average from .176 entering the homestand to .320, as of Wednesday. He also has improved his OPS from .568 to 1.092. Overall, Jensen’s metrics have been excellent in his rookie debut, giving hope to Royals fans for 2026 and beyond.
While Jac Caglianone has gotten most of the prospect hype in the Royals system this year, one could argue that Jensen has been the better prospect in 2025. Not only did Jensen make the transition from Double-A to Triple-A to the Majors this season, much like Jac, but the Kansas City native’s Statcast profile has been much more impressive than the former Florida Gator in this small sample size.
Granted, Cags’ sample is much bigger than Jensen’s (618 more pitches to be specific). However, Jensen not only matches or outdoes Cags in EV, barrel, and hard-hit categories, but he’s also showcased much better plate discipline, as evidenced by Jensen’s superior Z-Swing% and O-Swing%.
Jensen has looked calm and composed at the plate, which hasn’t always been the case with Cags, who’s seemed to wear his emotions on his shoulders, especially in at-bats where he gets out.
Now, I am not saying this to dump on Cags, necessarily. Instead, it’s to highlight the incredible progress of Jensen. He has demonstrated a much-needed professional approach at the plate that’s been missing from many Royals hitters this year, especially those developed in the Kansas City farm system.
It’s only one series, but Jensen has shown that he’s legit and not only deserves an Opening Day roster spot, but perhaps a spot in the starting lineup as well.
There’s still some work he needs to do behind the plate at catcher, and he hasn’t gotten much time behind the plate because of that (though this Spring Training should help). Still, in terms of his hitting, plate discipline, and ability on the basepaths, Jensen seems more than ready to be a player for JJ Picollo and the Royals front office to be building around long-term, along with Bobby Witt Jr., and possibly Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia.
Photo Credit: Kevin O’Brien