The Royals were off Monday as they prepare for their final homestand of the season against the Mariners (Tuesday through Thursday) and Blue Jays (Friday through Sunday). It won’t be an easy stretch, especially with both Seattle and Toronto at the top of their respective divisions.
On this off day, I wanted to dive into some data of Royals hitters, especially ones with murky roles or futures in 2026.
Rather than utilize TJ Stats metrics, which I have primarily used this season, I have decided to revert to looking back at PLV data, which is the data created and utilized by Kyle Bland and the folks at Pitcher List. As many of you know, I am a staff member for Pitcher List and write there once a week for their daily Batter’s Box column.
For those who are unaware, PLV evaluates hitters through four primary hitting metrics: decision-making, contact ability, power, and swing aggression. When the first three are combined, they create a metric called Process+, which is a good overall glance of a hitter’s approach and ability.
Here are the complete definitions of those four metrics, via the Pitcher List site.
- Decision Value (runs per pitch): The modeled value of a hitter’s decision to swing or take. These are also broken into ‘Zone’ and ‘Out-of-Zone’ components (credit to Robert Orr‘s SEAGER article and @TJStats for the idea).
- Contact Ability (runs per swing): The modeled value of the hitter making contact (or not), above the contact expectation of each pitch.
- Power (runs per batted ball): The modeled value of each batted ball, above a pitch’s expectation.
- Swing Aggression (% above/below lg avg): How much more often a hitter swings at pitches, given the swing likelihoods of the pitches they face.
- Process (runs per pitch): The combined value of a hitter’s Decision Value, Contact Ability, and Power.
In this post, I’m going to utilize two PLV resources that use these five metrics to evaluate four Royals hitters. I will utilize PLV heatmaps of decision-making, contact ability, power, and swing aggression, as well as Process+ rolling chart data. These two sources of data should give me an idea of the plate approaches of the Royals hitters I profile, and what it could mean for their outlooks in 2026, whether it’s in Kansas City or not.
The four hitters are three hitters the Royals acquired via trade either by the Deadline or in the second half: Mike Yastrzemski, Randal Grichuk, and Adam Frazier.
The last one is rookie hitter Jac Caglianone, who’s had mixed results in his rookie campaign in Kansas City.
Here’s a look at the results of those four hitters this year via Fangraphs.
Yaz has been the best hitter of the group with 15 home runs and a 103 wRC+ in 511 plate appearances between the Giants and Royals. Frazier has been the second-best hitter with a .262 average and 85 wRC+ in 420 plate appearances between the Pirates and Royals. Grichuk only has a .220 average and 77 wRC+, but his .335 xwOBA is the best of the group. Lastly, Caglianone has the worst wOBA (.229) and wRC+ (39), but has six home runs in 197 plate appearances and a .334 xwOBA, only one point behind Grichuk.
Those are the results of those four hitters in 2025. However, does the process correlate with those stats? Let’s look at the PLV Heatmaps and Process+ rolling charts of each hitter to see.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF
When looking at the heatmap data, Yaz has been a patient hitter. Most of the strike zone in his swing aggression chart is blue, which means he swings less than league average in those areas. Interestingly enough, the approach does border on being too “passive.”
In his decision value chart, there’s a lot of blue in the middle of the strike zone. That illustrates that he lets too many pitches that he can do damage on go by. On a positive note, he has a lot of red on the edges, which means that he is at least taking and getting positive value on pitches that are tough to do damage on. His lack of swings may also be purposeful.
His contact ability chart illustrates that he does a good job with pitches down in the zone or inside, but he’s less productive on pitches in the zone down the middle or away. His power chart also correlates with his contact chart by showing red on pitches in the zone down and in, though the red is not as pronounced as his contact heatmap.
This home run below against the Rangers on August 19th is right in that red zone in both his contact and power map.
When it comes to Process+, here’s a look at Yaz’s trend throughout the year.
Yaz had a stolid first couple of months of the season with San Francisco. However, in June, he regressed heavily, with his power taking the biggest dive in June and his contact ability starting to follow in July. As a result, his Process+ was below average between the middle of June and the beginning of August, touching as low as the 75 mark.
By August 1st, the contact and decision-making bounced back with the Royals, and by the middle of August, he was an above-average Process+ hitter again. That said, the power has remained below average, even though it’s been better in Kansas City than it was with the Giants in June and July.
Yaz will be a tough decision for the Royals as he will be a free agent this offseason and is 35 years old. He’s been a nice boost for the Royals at the top of the batting order, especially with Jonathan India‘s struggles.
However, I worry about his power tool going forward. Thus, I’m not sure he’s worth bringing back for 2026, especially if he’s prone to stretches like his June and July with San Francisco when he was clearly a sub-par hitter in terms of Process+.
Adam Frazier, 2B/OF
The Royals acquired Frazier because they needed a utility guy who could put the ball in play and give professional at-bats. They tried to replace Frazier with Cavan Biggio and Michael Massey, but it just didn’t work out as planned. Thus, GM JJ Picollo traded for Frazier at the All-Star Break in exchange for Omaha infielder Cam Devanney.
When looking at his heatmaps, Frazier has an aggressive swing approach on pitches away from the zone, both up and down. While that may make some Royals fans cringe, it hasn’t hurt him in terms of decision-making.
According to that heatmap, he sports a lot of red on the outside part of the zone, especially low and away. He also shows some red in contact ability on the outside edges, which illustrates that Frazier’s opposite-field approach actually has borne some fruit at the plate this season.
Below is an example of Frazier making contact and producing an RBI double to the opposite field on a pitch from the White Sox’s Tyler Gilbert on the outside edge of the strike zone.
The main drawback with Frazier in his heatmap data is that his power heatmap is entirely light blue. That means he’s not producing any power, even in areas where he shows solid decision-making and contact ability.
His Process+ chart also shows a correlating trend this year.
Interestingly enough, Frazier’s best offensive stretch of the season, via Process+, has come with the Royals. He saw a spike in his Process+ rolling chart after August 1st, as it was above-average all last month. That was the only point it was above-average at any point this season.
The contact and decision-making have spiked with the Royals, and his power has gone from far below average to only slightly below. That said, he’s starting to show regression in his contact and decision-making in September, and consequently, his rolling chart is starting to dive toward average again.
I think Frazier will be back in Kansas City next year because it’s evident that he brings versatility and a lot of intangibles to the roster and clubhouse. That said, he’s been on a hot streak in Kansas City, and his overall Process+ trend showcases a below-average hitter who offers very little in terms of power.
Randal Grichuk, OF
Grichuk has been the worst of the Royals’ three in-season pickups. With the Royals alone, he’s hitting .175 with a 39 wRC+ in 88 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs. However, it does seem that his over-aggressive approach has led to a rough start in Kansas City.
When looking at his swing aggression and decision value heatmaps, there is a lot of blue in the middle of the zone, which illustrates that Grichuk is aggressive to a fault. On a positive note, he does make a lot of contact, as his contact ability chart in the strike zone is red throughout. However, a red contact heatmap and a blue decision heatmap show that while Grichuk is making contact, the swing decisions aren’t leading to productive at-bats or runs.
In terms of power, Grichuk hasn’t shown much in Kansas City. He only has one home run and a .075 ISO. He does seem to thrive in his power heatmap on pitches middle or up and away, as there’s a lot of red in that area of the strike zone.
Here’s an example of Grichuk with the Diamondbacks hitting a homer to straightaway center field on a slider away in the strike zone.
The power is there, especially against lefties. He just hasn’t shown it in Kansas City, much to the Royals’ chagrin.
His Process+ chart also showcases decision-making struggles throughout the year, despite positive trends in his power and contact ability.
I don’t love what Grichuk has done with the Royals, and defensively, he’s pretty limited (he’s been two runs below average with the Royals via Def, resulting in a -0.6 fWAR). Conversely, in a platoon role and with a better left-handed hitting right or left fielder? I think Grichuk could bounce back slightly in 2026, especially since the Process+ rolling trend has remained above-average throughout the season (even amidst his struggles in Kansas City).
If the Royals can get Grichuk to agree to a cheap deal (in the $1.5-3 million range), he could be worth coming back in 2026.
Jac Caglianone, OF
Honestly, I was expecting worse from Cags’ heatmaps, especially considering how bad the results have been in his rookie season (.151 average; .507 OPS). However, there’s some room for optimism in this heatmap data.
In terms of his swing aggression, he’s a bit free-swinging on pitches up in the zone. However, he’s been more patient on pitches in the middle or low. The high-frequency up is likely a pitch recognition issue, and he seems to have laid off those high fastballs more since returning to the Majors from the IL.
Unsurprisingly, due to his high number of swings up in the zone, his worst area in his decision-making heatmap is up in the strike zone, especially up and in. However, he profiles better on pitches in the middle and middle away. So when Cags does get mistakes in the middle, it seems like he’s been productive, at least on a decision-making end.
Interestingly enough, his best areas in terms of contact and power are up in the zone. The red contact but blue decision heatmaps show that while he’s making contact on pitches up, he’s not doing anything with them. Specifically, he’s popping up way too much on those pitches up in the zone.
That is illustrated in this one below against the Phillies, where he hit it with an exit velocity of 105.6 MPH, but had a launch angle of 58 degrees, which results in an easy can of corn for Max Kepler.
Cags seems like he’s on it and will start to turn those pop-ups into bombs when his pitch recognition and swing decisions improve. That will only happen with more plate appearances at the Major League level.
When looking at his Process+ rolling chart data, decision-making has been Cags’ Achilles heel. He is sporting excellent power and contact, but his lackluster decision value has kept his overall Process+ rolling chart trend from being higher (though it’s hovered around league average).
The Process+ trend (the white line) should give Royals fans reason for optimism with Cags in 2026. He’s had about as brutal a start as a rookie could have in his first 197 plate appearances. And yet, his Process+ showcases a hitter who’s been slightly above average, even with below-average decision-making at the plate.
If the decision-making ticks up even a little bit, Cags could truly explode offensively, as the power and contact ability are already legitimate, based on PLV data. He should be a significant part of the Royals’ plans not just in 2026, but beyond as well.
Photo Credit: Lauren Leigh Bacho/MLB Photos via Getty Images