The Kansas City Royals’ playoff hopes are pretty much shot at this point. According to Fangraphs, their playoff odds are 0.2%, the lowest they’ve been this season.
This road trip in Cleveland and Philadelphia was an opportunity for the Royals to build some much-needed ground and momentum in the Wild Card race. Unfortunately, they did the opposite, going 2-5 on this trip, and only winning one game in each series.
The Royals lost the first two games in Philadelphia brutally.
They were outscored 16-8 in the Friday and Saturday games combined. Michael Lorenzen and Ryan Bergert, the Royals’ game one and two starters, struggled to contain the Phillies’ hot offense, putting salt in the wound of the Royals and their dwindling playoff hopes.
Saturday’s loss was especially disappointing, especially with Salvador Perez making history with his two-homer, three-RBI game.
Honestly, things were tailor-made for a Phillies sweep on Sunday, especially with Philadelphia a win away from clinching another NL East title. Not only did the Mets spoil the fun by coming back to win in extra innings, but the Royals also avoided the sweep with a 10-3 victory. It was an inspired hitting and pitching performance that was absent in the first six games of the road trip.
With the win, the Royals are back to .500 at 75-75. They have a tough homestand coming up, with visits from Seattle and Toronto this week.
At this point, the goal for Kansas City should be a winning season, as they have only had one since 2015 (which was last year). That said, it won’t be easy, especially with the 81-68 Mariners and 87-62 Blue Jays on the docket.
Let’s take a look, though, at Sunday’s big win and whether or not it is the spark they needed to finish the season at Kauffman Stadium strong in this upcoming week.
Salvy Making History and Looking to Finish Strong
After a two-homer day on Saturday, Salvy didn’t miss a beat on Sunday, much to the enjoyment of Royals fans watching the game before the Chiefs kicked off against Philadelphia’s NFL team at 3:25 p.m..
Salvy went two-for-five with five RBI and a homer, his 28th of the season. Salvy’s three-run home run off Aaron Nola wasn’t “crushed” by any means (only a 97.8 MPH exit velocity), but it was hit at the proper launch angle and located in the right part of the ballpark.
If that wasn’t enough, Salvy was able to pad the Royals’ lead in the seventh inning with an opposite-field single with the bases loaded that scored Carter Jensen and Vinnie Pasquantino.
In 589 plate appearances, Salvy has 28 home runs, 89 RBI, and a .728 OPS. His average is low at .237, as his OBP is at .278. However, the power has continued to be there for Salvy, as his .450 slugging is only six points lower than his mark in 2024.
The Royals will have to decide on Salvy this offseason, as he has a club option for $13.5 million for 2026. GM JJ Picollo will likely negotiate an extension for Salvy to play beyond 2026. That said, a strong finish at the plate could be the difference between a two or three-year extension for Salvy this offseason.
Big Days from Bobby, Vinnie, and Maikel
The Royals’ offense typically correlates with how Witt, Vinnie, and Maikel Garcia do at the plate. In Saturday’s loss, they went 2-for-12 with Witt going 0-for-4 with a strikeout.
It was a much different story on Sunday.
In Kansas City’s seven-run win, the trio went 7-for-14 with six runs scored. That included a three-hit day from Vinnie, a two-hit day from Maikel, and a two-hit day from Bobby, with Witt hitting his 22nd home run of the season.
It’s been a mixed September for all three players.
Vinnie has continued to be productive, as he is hitting .327 with a .903 OPS in 54 plate appearances this month. Maikel has cooled down a bit, with a .234 average and .648 OPS in 52 plate appearances. Witt has been the most interesting one with an .817 OPS, but a .222 average. He has 10 strikeouts this month in 41 plate appearances, but he has two home runs and two triples, which have helped him produce a slugging of .500 this month.
Witt cutting down the strikeouts over the next two weeks and Maikel building on a solid series in Philadelphia (five hits in 13 plate appearances) could help the Royals ensure a competitive final homestand of the year, as well as another winning season.
Cameron Continues to Battle On the Mound
Things didn’t look good initially for Cameron, as he gave up home runs to Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto in the first inning. After that rough inning, the St. Joseph product locked the Phillies down over seven innings of work.
In his 97-pitch winning effort, Cameron allowed only two runs on four hits while walking one and striking out seven. The Royals’ rookie pitcher outdueled Phillies ace Nola, inducing 18 whiffs to Nola’s 14.
When looking at his TJ Stats profile, Cameron struggled a bit with consistency in the zone and gave up a decent amount of hard contact, as illustrated by his xwOBACON. However, his whiff and chase rates, and stellar TJ Stuff+ for his standards, more than made up for those deficiencies.
Cameron’s control was stellar again in this one. He kept fastballs up, breaking balls down, stayed out of the middle of the zone, and lived on the edges. Against a potent Phillies lineup and in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark (it ranks ninth in Park Factor via Statcast), that approach and command are a recipe for success.
In 22 starts and 127 IP, Cameron has a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with a 19.8% K rate to a 7.4% BB walk rate. His 3.71 xERA isn’t that much worse than his actual ERA, which signifies that Cameron has been for real this season in his rookie campaign.
Considering the injury issues that have plagued this rotation with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Kris Bubic, the performance of Cameron this year has been a significant factor in the Royals staying around .500 for most of the season. He should be penciled in for the middle of the Royals’ rotation for 2026 and beyond.
Questions With Royals Pitching For Final Homestand
Carlos Estevez was tabbed to close the game in a non-closing situation on Sunday but was pulled from the game after eight pitches due to a back issue. Luinder Avila ended up collecting the final out of the contest.
It seems like Estevez should be okay, according to MLB.com Royals writer Anne Rogers. That said, his health will be something to watch over the last two weeks of the season.
Estevez has had a phenomenal first season in Kansas City.
In 64 games and 63 IP, he has a 2.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and has 39 saves. His 20.6% K rate is down from a year ago, and his 8.3% BB rate is up, thus resulting in a much higher 3.64 xERA. However, in terms of results, Estevez has been precisely the reliever the Royals needed this year.
In terms of the rotation, Rogers also shared the Royals’ projected starters for the upcoming three-game series against the Mariners at Kauffman this week.
Ragans is the name that sticks out the most, as he is coming off two stellar rehab starts in Omaha, where he struck out 14 batters in 6.2 IP.
Granted, the Charlotte Knights and Iowa Cubs aren’t exactly the best competition for a guy who finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race last year. Nonetheless, Ragans seems to be back where he was earlier this season before he went on the IL due to a shoulder injury.
Here’s a look at what his TJ Stats summary has looked like in his two rehab starts in Omaha.
The biggest concern many fans have with Ragans’ rehab stint is that the fastball velocity is at 94.6 MPH, which is 0.7 MPH lower than his four-seam velocity at the MLB level this season. The TJ Stuff+ is still solid on it at 101, as is the rest of his arsenal (102 TJ Stuff+ overall). Furthermore, it didn’t hurt him too much in Triple-A, as he was well above-average in chase, whiff, and xwOBACON.
Still, Ragans’ velocity and command in his return to the Major Leagues will be something to pay attention to on Wednesday, especially in preparation for 2026.
The other interesting note was manager Matt Quatraro listing Thursday as a TBA rather than identifying Lugo or Lorenzen as the one to be in that spot. It likely means a bullpen game, but it also could mean that Lugo will be shut down for the remainder of the season. That would make sense, especially with Lugo locked down already for next year and the Royals essentially out of playoff contention.
It’s been a challenging year for Lugo in his second season in Kansas City.
In 145.1 innings, he has a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 5.10 FIP. Lugo has seen a 1.2% decline in K rate (20.5%), a 3.3% increase in BB rate (9.0%), and has given up 27 home runs, 11 more than a season ago. Something just hasn’t been right with Lugo this year, and his TJ Stats summary only confirms it.
There’s a lot of blue in his TJ Stats profile, and blue isn’t a good color in this case. While I imagine the competitor in Lugo wants to finish the season on the mound, the Royals would be better off letting him fully recover on the IL and take this offseason to do what he needs to bounce back after a disappointing 2025 campaign.
In terms of Thursday, I also wonder if it means that they will shut down Bergert, who’s already surpassed his career innings high as a professional. According to Roster Resource, Lorenzen was initially scheduled to go on Thursday, so they may move him to Friday to take Bergert’s place in the rotation.
Could Bailey Falter finally return from the IL to make a spot start on Thursday (though we haven’t heard much about him since he went on IL)? Would the Royals give Spencer Turnbull, who has MLB experience and is currently in Omaha, a chance to prove himself down the stretch?
Whatever the Royals decide, fans shouldn’t be surprised if Quatraro does something creative in Thursday’s rotation spot.
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