I am about as optimistic a Royals fan as one can be, especially when it comes to millennial Royals fans, who can be a jaded bunch after the lean years from the post-Kauffman era to 2013. I always try to look at the positive end of things when it comes to my analysis and fandom of the Kansas City Royals, especially on this blog.
However, tonight was my 24th game of the season at Kauffman, and by far it was the most brutal performance I witnessed from the Boys in Blue in 2025.
The Royals lost 5-1 to an Angels team without Taylor Ward or Mike Trout, who were both out due to various freak occurrences. Ward collided badly into the fence at Daikin Park on Monday, while Trout was scratched a half-hour before game time due to a “skin infection.”
Los Angeles featured a rookie starting pitcher in Mitch Farris, who hadn’t pitched above Double-A and actually posted a 4.27 ERA in 116 IP with the Rocket City Trash Pandas. For any Royals fan saying, “Well, he had 13 strikeouts in his last Double-A start,” his TJ Stats metrics showcased a pitcher whom the Royals should’ve blasted, plain and simple.
Farris not only posted a poor 92 TJ Stuff+ overall, but he also only sported a 44.3% zone rate and 15.8% whiff rate. He was begging for the Royals hitters to do something, and they only knocked him around for three hits. Their lone run in the third inning came on a Vinnie Pasquantino sac fly after Bobby Witt Jr. hit a triple down the right field line.
Beyond that stretch, it was mostly disappointment from a Royals lineup that has been pretty productive since the All-Star Break and Trade Deadline.
Bad games happen, and we saw that on Monday night as the Dodgers lost to the Pirates, the Twins lost to the White Sox, and the Mariners lost to the Rays. That said, the Royals are running out of chances to make the postseason. Their playoff odds are now 8.7% after tonight’s brutal loss, according to Fangraphs.
The Royals, from top to bottom, need to be better.
I had a feeling the Royals were in for a long night when I saw the lineup they dropped this afternoon for today’s series-opening game.
All season long, manager Matt Quatraro has been about the “matchups.” The baseball season is a long one, and managing a lineup is a balance between preserving your best players and putting the right players in the right situations to succeed. Despite all the criticism from the countless armies of Royals Twitter burners, Quatraro has done a great job of doing this, not just this year, but in his overall tenure as Royals manager.
Of course, not every manager can have a perfect game or night. The lineup felt like one of those rare “off nights” from Q, where he may have overthought things, especially with the anticipation of young players like Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen joining the roster.
Neither Cags nor Jensen was in the lineup, and the primary reason some Royals fans pointed to was the lefty Farris on the mound. And yet, this is how the Royals hitters have fared this year against left-handed pitchers, via Fangraphs.
I can understand not wanting to throw Jensen initially into the fire, especially against a lefty and with a veteran staff he hasn’t worked with since Spring Training. Then again, Salvador Perez has been pretty lackluster against lefties this year with a .205 average and 40 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances. As for Cags, his .191 average and 66 wRC+ isn’t excellent, but his wRC+ is only one point lower than Pasquantino, and is actually 15 points higher than Kyle Isbel and 29 points higher than Mike Yastrzemski.
For a manager who is seen as “analytical” and plays the matchups, tonight felt like the rare game where Q went with “gut” rather than data. And unfortunately, it backfired big time, with the Royals not just losing, but not producing much quality contact either, as demonstrated in their “Deserve-to-win-o-meter” data.
Bad nights happen. Ned Yost had them. Dick Howser had them. Whitey Herzog had them. Tony Pena and Trey Hillman had a lot of them.
However, Q needs to be better for this team to make the postseason.
Michael Lorenzen had one of the better starts we have seen from a veteran Royals pitcher since the All-Star Break, especially at home. Seth Lugo has been a mess, especially since he signed his extension. Michael Wacha has been good, but he is coming off a 4.2-inning start against the Tigers on Sunday that led to a 5-0 loss.
Except for a mistake to Jo Adell, who launched a two-run home run in the sixth, Lorenzen looked strong and did his job on Tuesday evening at the K. The TJ Stats data seems to back that up, too.
Lorenzen produced an overall TJ Stuff+ of 99, which showed his pitch quality was back to normal after a lengthy stint on the IL. He didn’t generate a whole lot of chase (21.3%), and his xwOBACON was high at .399. However, he did a decent job of flooding the strike zone and generating whiffs, as evidenced by rates of 50.5% and 25.6% respectively.
The Royals needed a quality start from Lorenzen on Tuesday, and the 33-year-old veteran provided exactly that.
It’s too bad the position players didn’t back him up.
It wasn’t just the hitting that was bad, even though the Royals went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and stranded five runners on base. Kansas City just looked flat in all aspects, beyond Lorenzen’s pitching.
Adam Frazier whiffed a frozen rope at second base from Salvy that should’ve resulted in a caught stealing. Isbel got badly picked off by Farris after he got on with a bunt single. Vinnie hit into a patented double play after Bobby worked an impressive walk. Salvy let two balls get by him, with his last one resulting in a run scoring from third.
The Royals need to do the little things to win games in September and make the postseason. Unfortunately, they looked uninspired on Tuesday, as if this were a game in the middle of June, not in the last month of the season. They didn’t take care of those minute details, both in the field and on the basepaths, except Witt, who arguably made one of the best plays of his career against Zach Neto.
The Royals have some time remaining this week.
They still have five winnable games remaining against the Angels and Twins, respectively. Tomorrow is a new day, and they can flush this brutal and pathetic showing from their system with an inspired performance over the remainder of this homestand. That successful stretch, theoretically, could build the momentum they need to go on a scorching run to 86 or 87 wins, which they likely need to hit to make the postseason.
However, they need to be better. They need their veterans to step up, especially Salvy, who’s been a disaster at the plate (along with Maile) since the Freddy Fermin trade.
Losing to the Angels at home in front of a Kauffman crowd not used to meaningful September baseball over the past three decades is unacceptable. Scoring one run against a rookie starting pitcher with a 92 TJ Stuff+ is intolerable. Giving outs on the bases with blunders and mental mistakes is unforgivable at this time of the season.
The Royals need to be better.
Thankfully, I believe they CAN be better. We have seen it before, with the last homestand being a prime example.
But they need to turn it around and be better soon, or else those playoff odds will fall to zero sooner rather than later, much to the chagrin of the Kansas City faithful.
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