The Royals finished August with a 16-12 record. Not only does that improve their overall record to 70-67 as we hit the final month of play, but it also improves their second-half record to 23-17, according to Baseball-Reference.
Kansas City has legitimately been playing better baseball after the All-Star Break.
After posting a 47-50 record and -28 run differential in the first half, the Royals not only have a winning record in the second half, but also are sporting a +25 run differential. Thus, it’s not a surprise that Fangraphs is projecting the Royals to finish with an 82-80 record this season.
An 82-80 record would be only the second winning season in Royals history after their 2015 World Series. However, it likely would not be enough for the Royals to make the postseason (Fangraphs projects the Seattle Mariners, who would have the last playoff spot, to win 87 games). Therefore, for the Royals to make a postseason push (their playoff odds are currently 10.6%, according to Fangraphs), they will need not just to play winning baseball, but “scorching” winning baseball in September.
For that to happen, Kansas City will need key players to step up in September.
Thankfully, there is a handful of Royals hitters and pitchers who are coming off stellar months. Let’s look at five Royals players (three hitters and two pitchers) who had solid performances in August, and what fans can expect from them in this final month of the 2025 regular season.
Bobby Witt Jr.
The “Bobby” hype has been significantly more subdued nationally this season compared to 2024, when he finished as the runner-up to AL MVP winner Aaron Judge of the Yankees. That said, Witt has had another stellar season that shouldn’t be slept on.
In 528 plate appearances, Witt is slashing .296/.344/.501 with an .845 OPS. This also includes 20 home runs and 34 stolen bases, putting Witt in line for a 25-40 HR-SB season at the very least. Add that with stellar defense, and it’s not surprising that Witt is producing a 6.7 fWAR, one of the best marks in the American League.
As a result, Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats has Witt ranked fourth in his AL MVP rankings, behind Judge, Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.
In August, Witt was sensational, even though he may not have gotten as much hype as some other Royals, like Vinnie Pasquantino, who had 10 home runs last month.
In 121 plate appearances in August, the Royals’ shortstop slashed .330/.405/.538 with a .400 wOBA and 156 wRC+. He also launched five home runs, scored 22 runs, collected 16 RBI, and stole six bases. As a result, Witt led all Royals position players in fWAR with a 1.8 mark in August.
Witt’s batting average has perked back up over the last month, with an 18-game hitting streak providing a big help (it ended yesterday against Skubal and the Tigers). For the Royals to make the postseason, they need a Herculean effort from Witt, with better numbers in September than he produced in August.
That sounds ridiculous, of course, mainly since he nearly produced a 1.8 fWAR, which is better than what the Cardinals, Nationals, Rockies, Rays, Angels, Reds, and Guardians produced as teams in August on the hitting end, according to Fangraphs. That said, Witt is the pulse of this Royals offense and team, and for them to overcome their low playoff odds, Witt needs to build upon his August with an even better September.
If he does that, he could find himself suddenly back in the MVP conversation, even with Raleigh and Judge sitting as heavy favorites.
Maikel Garcia
I keep expecting Garcia to regress at some point, and it still hasn’t happened, which is a testament to his development at the plate this season.
In 123 plate appearances in August, the 25-year-old corner infielder slashed .290/.374/.486 with a .372 wOBA and 137 wRC+. He also hit five home runs, scored 16 runs, collected 18 RBI, and stole three bases. He produced a 1.2 fWAR in August, improving his fWAR to 4.9 for the season. That is the fifth-best mark in the American League, according to Fangraphs, and better than Houston’s Jeremy Pena, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, and Minnesota’s Byron Buxton.
The most significant improvement from Garcia this year has been the power, as his 15 home runs are four more than his career total entering this season. His 6.0% barrel rate is 2.3% better than a year ago, and his LA Sweet-Spot% is also an improvement on his 34.1% mark in 2024.
On Saturday, with his 15th home run, Garcia became the first primary third baseman in Royals history to have a 15-HR, 20-SB season, as highlighted by Dave Holtzman, Royals information strategist.
With Garcia on track for at least a 5.5-6.0 fWAR season, Royals GM JJ Picollo will likely look to lock down their infielder to an extension this offseason, especially with Garcia entering his first year of being arbitration-eligible.
Mike Yastrzemski
Apparently, the Royals acquired Yaz mere minutes before the Trade Deadline. Thankfully, things worked out, as Yaz has been a revelation for the Royals at the leadoff spot.
In 96 plate appearances in August, Yaz slashed .268/.354/.622 with a .404 wOBA and 159 wRC+, the latter two being the best marks of any Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances last month. He also hit seven home runs, scored 19 runs, and collected 13 RBI.
Leadoff home runs have been a specialty of Yaz’s, as he has hit five with the Royals, his latest coming on Friday night against Detroit.
Yaz’s exit velocity and barrel rates are a little questionable, which explains why the Giants were willing to part with him for a modest package (they acquired pitching prospect Yunior Marte, who only pitched in Low-A ball this year). However, he ranks in the 84th percentile in O-Swing%, 88th percentile in walk rate, and 88th percentile in Pull Air%.
Those are ideal qualities of a leadoff hitter, and he provides much more power upside than Jonathan India, who will be arbitration-eligible and could be a non-tender candidate, especially with his lackluster metrics.
Thus, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Picollo bring back Yaz for another year or two with the hope that he can provide stability at the top of the lineup against right-handed starting pitchers.
Michael Wacha
Wacha didn’t end the month with the best outing, as he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings of work on Sunday. However, that shouldn’t overshadow what he did overall in August, as he was the Royals’ best-starting pitcher.
In six outings and 36 IP, Wacha won four games and posted an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.08. While his ERA may not seem significant at first glance, his FIP was notably better at 2.96. He also posted a solid walk rate of 2.9% and a K-BB% of 12.9%, both of which are solid marks, especially since his K rate was mediocre at 15.7% last month.
The 34-year-old has been the Royals’ most valuable starting pitcher this year in a variety of ways. Not only does he lead in innings pitched with 153.1, but he also is second in fWAR with a 3.3 mark. Currently, Kris Bubic leads Wacha by 0.1 fWAR, so unless something drastic happens (i.e., an injury), Wacha will likely finish the season as the Royals’ most valuable pitcher on an fWAR basis.
Of Royals starting pitchers, Wacha sports the lowest K% at 17.8%. However, he’s made up for it with a 2.87 K/BB ratio. That mark is better than Noah Cameron‘s (2.68) and Seth Lugo‘s (2.27). He also sports a 0.76 HR/9, which is the best mark of any active Royals starting pitcher with 10 or more IP this season, according to Fangraphs.
On a positive note, the Royals’ veteran hasn’t shown any issues with his velocity this year, as all of his offerings have remained consistent in their velocity trends, according to Savant. Hence, he seems to be in good shape for the stretch run of this season.
With Lugo and Cameron fading a bit this past month (5.27 FIP for Cameron; 7.70 FIP for Lugo in August), the Royals need Wacha to provide much-needed stability to the rotation in September if they want to gain ground in the AL Wild Card race.
Carlos Estevez
Remember Estevez’s “struggles” in July? In that month, he posted a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and had seven strikeouts and two walks in 12 IP (13 appearances).
Thus, there was some worry among Royals fans (including myself) that he was on his way to fading in the second half.
Thankfully, Estevez changed the narrative in August with one of his best months of the season.
In 12.2 IP and 13 outings, he posted a 2.84 ERA and 0.79 WHIP with eight saves, 13 strikeouts, and four walks. According to his monthly splits, his eight saves tied April for his most in a month, and his 13 strikeouts were the most in any month for him as well. He also showcased excellent stuff (104 TJ Stuff+), threw strikes (55.2% zone rate), and kept his command in check, as evidenced by his 3.04 FIP and 19.1% K-BB%.
As of September 1st, according to Fangraphs, Estevez leads all of Major League Baseball in saves with 36, with San Diego’s Ranger Suarez behind him with 35. He also has one of the best ERAs in save situations of closers with 30 or more saves, as highlighted by Codify in a post yesterday.
Chases and whiffs remain an issue for Estevez. Even in August, his chase rate was only 24.5% and his whiff rate was only 23.1%. Both of those are below-average rates, especially for a closer. That said, he remains a savant when it comes to inducing pop-ups, as his 15.4% pop-up rate is over double his rate a year ago, which explains why he has been so successful despite meager strikeout and groundball rates (26% GB%).
I’m unsure how sustainable Estevez’s profile will be in the long term, even as soon as next season. However, he has been one of the Royals’ best closers in the post-HDH era, and continuing this stellar August into September will be key for the Royals to secure their postseason spot.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel