There’s no question that MJ Melendez has been one of the Royals’ most disappointing players this season.
After hitting 17 home runs and slashing .206/.273/.400 with an 86 wRC+ in 451 plate appearances last season, the 26-year-old outfielder, trying out a new swing in Spring Training, got off to a brutal start.
In only 17 games and 52 plate appearances, Melendez slashed .085/.173/.170 with a -6 wRC+ (you read that right). His K rate jumped from 25.1% last year to 38.5% this season, and his BB/K ratio fell from 0.31 last year (which already was a career-low for him) to 0.15 this season.
According to TJ Stats, he did barrel the ball a decent amount and was pulling the ball in the air, both promising signs from a hitting perspective. Unfortunately, he rated poorly in every other category (and by a considerable margin).
As a result of his poor results and swing-and-miss struggles, the Royals optioned Melendez to Omaha on April 19th, and he’s spent the remainder of the season with the Storm Chasers until getting called up before Wednesday’s game.
So why did the Royals call up MJ now (in the wake of the injury to Nick Loftin), and what is his outlook for the remainder of the season with the Royals?
In this post, I explain why manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo should give Melendez one last shot to prove himself with regular at-bats to determine if he will be part of their plans in 2026 and beyond.
Going Back to What Worked For MJ
Over 72 games and 290 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers, MJ posted a slash of .252/.300/.472 with 13 home runs, 43 RBI,14 stolen bases, and a 93 wRC+. That said, he got off to a brutal start when initially called down, as he was hitting .216 with a 56 wRC+ and 0.18 BB/K ratio from April 22nd to June 19th, according to Fangraphs Minor League game logs.
It seemed that Melendez struggled mentally after his demotion to Omaha, which contributed to his brutal numbers initially in Triple-A, as chronicled in an article by KC Star Royals writer Pete Grathoff.
Here’s a quote from MJ in Grathoff’s article that demonstrated what MJ did to get out of his on-field (and off-field) slump with the Storm Chasers and earn his return to the Royals.
Melendez hit 41 home runs in 2021, most across the minor leagues. He believed he was capable of being that player once again.
But how? For starters, Melendez ditched the changes he’d made during the offseason. In the wee hours of the morning, following the Storm Chasers’ games, he’d watch videos of his past successes at the plate, then take swings while looking in the mirror. The other thing Melendez learned: Change wouldn’t come overnight.
“I was really able to test myself and find myself,” he said. “I feel like, at times, I had hit rock bottom and felt like it was about as bad as it could get for me mentally. “And then I also felt like I was in a really, really good spot, and felt the best I felt in years. So (I’ve) just been able to grow a lot and really break down every part of my game.”
Starting June 20th, Melendez went on a tear, finally tapping into his old swing again.
In 23 games and 96 plate appearances over that period, MJ slashed .323/.394/.656 with six home runs, 16 RBI, and 23 runs scored. He also posted a 165 wRC+, .333 ISO, and 11% walk rate over that time. The strikeouts were still high at 30.3%, but his 0.36 BB/K ratio was nearly double his previous mark with the Storm Chasers.
Here’s an example of Melendez’s “old swing” producing a home run on July 18th in Buffalo.
When looking at the Statcast metrics, the hard-hit and barrels remained solid for MJ in Omaha. Unfortunately, whiffs remained an issue, which explains why he stayed so long with the Storm Chasers (and saw other outfielders like Drew Waters and John Rave get opportunities before him).
The quality of contact Melendez showed in Triple-A was legitimate. He ranked in the 84th percentile in barrel rate, 96th percentile in Pull and Pull Air percentage, and 100th percentile in Average EV and Hard-Hit rate. His xwOBA ranked in the 61st percentile, and it’s .331 mark was slightly higher than his actual .328 wOBA.
That said, he ranked in the bottom 15th percentile in whiff and strikeout rate, 14th percentile in Z-Contact rate, and 9th percentile in walk rate. He also ranked in the 37th percentile in LA Sweet-Spot%. That’s not terrible, but it’s not good enough for a guy with Melendez’s raw power and batted-ball ability.
Still, despite those flaws, Melendez would provide a much-needed profile that has been sorely missing from Royals outfielders this year.
According to Fangraphs, Royals outfielders rank last in ISO (.109), wRC+ (64), slugging (.328), and HR/FB rate (6.1%). Below is a look at what Rave and Waters have done this year on a Statcast end in Melendez’s absence.
Waters provided no power at the plate, ranking in the bottom 8th percentile in barrel rate and 13th percentile in Hard-Hit rate. As for Rave, he’s been slightly better in the second half. That has boosted his barrel rate to 7.8%, which ranks in the 43rd percentile. Still, he ranks in the 27th percentile in Hard-Hit rate, and his LA Sweet-Spot percentage ranks in the bottom 1st percentile.
Comparatively, here’s what Melendez did with the Royals on a Statcast end in 2024.
I think it’s realistic that Melendez could provide that again, even if it’s a flawed and mediocre profile. After all, Melendez’s 86 wRC+ last year would be the second-best mark of Royals outfielders this season with 20 or more plate appearances.
The projections are also optimistic in Melendez’s outlook for the remainder of the year. Here’s a look at what his slash, ISO, and wRC+ projection would be for the remainder of the year, according to Steamer, ZiPS, and The BAT X, three reliable projection systems.
- Steamer: .222/.291/.394, .172 ISO, and 87 wRC+.
- ZiPS: .228/.302/.421, .192 ISO, and 97 wRC+.
- The BAT X: .223/.297/.411, .188 ISO, and 92 wRC+.
Thus, projections are expecting him to hit for a low average, but provide enough power to be close to league average in wRC+. A 92 wRC+, the median of those projections, would also be better than Loftin’s (79), Rave’s (78), Kyle Isbel‘s (73), and Jac Caglianone‘s (48).
The Royals, who are 50-53 and 10 games behind a slumping Detroit Tigers team in the AL Central race, don’t have anything to lose by slotting Melendez regularly in the lineup, seeing if he can hit those projection marks for the remainder of the year.
If he does, Kansas City will see a boost in outfield production, which will undoubtedly have an effect on the win total down the stretch.
Will MJ Be Part of the Royals’ Plans After 2025?
While I think a 90-93 wRC+ from Melendez (which I believe he can produce) will help the Royals’ win total, I don’t think it will be enough to make the postseason.
As of Thursday, Fangraphs is projecting the Royals to finish 29-30 down the stretch and finish with a record of 79-83. Even if Melendez can help turn things around, Kansas City is looking at a 1-2 win improvement, at best. Even with some added help at the Trade Deadline, this team’s best outlook may be 83 wins, which may not be enough in the AL Wild Card race.
Still, the Royals would benefit from seeing what Melendez can do for the Royals over the next 59 games. Not just in terms of him helping them improve their record now, but if he can be a part of their future in 2026 and beyond.
Right now, Melendez likely is not an everyday player for the Royals, even if he turns things around at the plate for the remainder of 2025.
At best, he’s probably a platoon bat who would sit against left-handed starting pitchers or high-velocity arms. That said, even a platoon bat with power from the left side has value, whether it’s with the Royals or someone else. It also sounds like Melendez has improved defensively in the outfield in Omaha this year, which only adds to his overall profile as a player at the MLB level.
Melendez will enter his second year of arbitration this offseason, so Picollo will have to make some tough decisions with him. That’s why playing him regularly in the last 59 games is essential for the club to gather more data on his long-term outlook.
His rolling wOBA trend from Omaha is encouraging, as shown below.
Royals fans can see that Melendez hit a slump from roughly his 170th PA to his 220th. However, he ended up adjusting and finished with a wOBA that crossed league average around his 250th plate appearance and only went up from there.
That’s a sign of Melendez maturing as a hitter, even if it is only Triple-A. It also demonstrates that he can bounce back from cold stretches in the Majors.
If the Royals see a turnaround with Melendez, they can either give him a modest extension after this year (something in the $1-2 million per year range). They could also trade him to a team that is desperate for left-handed power.
If he absolutely tanks, they can non-tender him, which means his roster spot becomes open. The Royals can add a prospect they need to protect this offseason, like Carter Jensen, who’s raking in Triple-A Omaha right now, as demonstrated by his rolling wOBA chart.
Regardless of what happens exactly with Melendez, the Royals run no risk by playing Melendez more. Even if he struggles, this team is likely on the outside-looking-in when it comes to the postseason, and it’s not like Caglianone, Loftin, or even Mark Canha, currently on the IL, are tearing the covers off the ball, either.
This should be Melendez’s last hurrah and opportunity to prove that he belongs not just with the Royals organization, but on a Major League Baseball team in general.
Let’s see if he can step up and make the most of this limited opportunity.
Photo Credit: Luke Hales/Getty Images
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