The Royals salvaged a game in Miami on Sunday, beating the Marlins 7-4 in the series finale. That said, Kansas City certainly made it more tense than needed in the bottom of the ninth. Control issues from reliever Andrew Hoffmann (making his second MLB appearance) and an error from Jonathan India led to four runs in the inning.
Thankfully, closer Carlos Estevez came in for Hoffmann and shut the door for his 26th save of the season.
The Royals are now 48-52 as they begin a tough series at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs, who are tied with the Brewers for the best record in the NL Central as well as National League, in general.
Kansas City could surprise and steal a series against the Cubs, which would give them a 3-3 road trip before they begin their first homestand of the season against the Cleveland Guardians and Atlanta Braves. That said, a series loss, or sweep at the hands of the North Siders, would put the Royals’ record at 49-54 or 48-55. That would only further sink their low playoff odds, which sit at 8.2%, as of Monday, according to Fangraphs.
Thus, the Royals need to start thinking about a reality where they don’t make the postseason in 2025.
That said, that shouldn’t mean that JJ Picollo and Kansas City should “tank” the rest of the season or be complete “sellers” by the Trade Deadline.
There is a reality where the Royals could do both: sell pieces that won’t be long-term assets, but also acquire players who could help them build momentum for 2026.
This has been a frustrating season, especially considering the Royals went 86-76 a year ago, a 30-win turnaround from 2023, when they went 56-106. However, the combination of player regression, injuries, and poor luck has culminated in a campaign where they have failed to meet higher expectations from both fans and the national media.
It happens. That’s baseball and sports, in general. Sometimes, teams surprise. Sometimes, they disappoint. It’s better than the constant disappointment that Royals fans were accustomed to from 1995 to 2012 or 2018 to 2023, when no hope seemed to be on the horizon (or it was only a glimmer, at best).
The Royals can certainly retool and build a better squad for 2026 that can compete for a playoff spot, possibly even a division title if everything clicks. To do that, however, they need to sell some critical roster pieces, even if it may mean some short-term bumps in the road for the remainder of the 2025 season.
In this post, I will examine three players whom the Royals should trade to aid their goal of improving for the 2026 season, as well as the potential returns they could receive in exchange for these players.
Seth Lugo, RHP
Even though he didn’t make the All-Star game, Lugo has had another solid campaign with the Royals.
In 107 IP, Lugo is posting a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s third in innings pitched behind Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic, despite spending a stint on the IL. Furthermore, he’s been one of the Royals’ more dependable pitchers since Cole Ragans landed on the IL due to shoulder issues (which should keep him out until at least August).
That said, it’s hard to keep Lugo with the Royals’ playoff chances so low.
For starters, Lugo has a $15 million player option for 2026 that he is likely to decline at the end of the season. The Royals could make a qualifying offer, and if he declines that, they could get some draft compensation. That said, Lugo is performing so well that the Royals could get some more MLB-ready talent if they deal him by the Trade Deadline.
I am unsure if Lugo has the kind of value that can net the Royals a top prospect alone. After all, his FIP is 4.37, and his 21.8% K rate isn’t exactly elite by any measure. However, Lugo is a durable arm who pitched over 200 innings in 2024 and is on pace for around 175-180 innings, according to most projections. Furthermore, he has playoff experience, as he pitched in both the Wild Card series and ALDS a season ago.
Those qualities should make Lugo a highly sought-after target for teams, especially those in need of starting pitching. The Cubs, who are trying to fend off the surging Brewers, could be a spot for Lugo, and the Cubs are flush with offensive prospect talent in Triple-A, like Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, who could immediately help in the Royals outfield.
Acquiring Caissie may require more to be included in the deal from the Royals’ end, such as another higher-end prospect (throwing in arms like Ben Kudrna and/or Frank Mozzicato may help). However, Alcantara and another lower-level prospect may be a match for Lugo, especially with the Cubs in “win-now” mode this season.
Jonathan India, 2B
The Royals acquired India this offseason to give the lineup a veteran presence and boost at the top of the batting order. While he has provided plate discipline at the top of the lineup, he hasn’t offered much else, unfortunately.
In 92 games and 401 plate appearances, India is hitting .246 with an 88 wRC+ and a .301 wOBA. His baserunning and defense have been mediocre, to put it lightly, which has resulted in him producing a minus-0.4 fWAR, a 3.3 decline from his mark a season ago. It’s hard to justify the Royals’ second baseman having a solid spot in this Royals lineup when he’s producing negative value overall. They learned that the hard way with Hunter Renfroe this season.
Michael Massey is due to come off the IL soon, as he is currently on a rehab stint in Northwest Arkansas.
It may make sense for the Royals to trade India and give Massey the remainder of the season at second to see if he is salvageable or if he needs to be dealt away this offseason. The Royals don’t have to do this right away, as Massey can play some left field (notice that he’s doing it in his first rehab start with the Naturals). However, Massey’s best value comes when he plays at the keystone, and he’s a much better defender than India.
I don’t think India will get a ton of value in return, especially after such a disappointing season. That said, his xwOBA is .337, which is 36 points higher than his actual wOBA. Furthermore, he ranks in the 60th percentile in Pull AIR%, which hints that he could thrive in a more hitter-friendly ballpark, especially on a HR/Power end.
The Mets have a bit of a hole at second base, as they are currently rotating between Brett Baty and Luisangel Acuna. Baty is currently producing, but India has a better plate approach, and he has a better track record than Baty as well.
Could the Royals maybe swap India for Baty, especially since there was some interest from the Royals a season ago?
Baty could provide nice insurance if Massey’s struggles continue, and he has better flexibility defensively than India and Massey.
Carlos Estevez, RHP
Royals fans have been frustrated with the All-Star closer recently, including me. However, when considering the whole picture of what he’s done this season, we have been fortunate to have had closer stability in Kansas City, which hasn’t been common in the post-HDH era.
In 43 games and 42.2 IP, Estevez sports a 2.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and has 26 saves. The strikeout numbers haven’t been impressive, as he only has a 19.6% K rate and 11.2% K-BB rate. That said, the stuff has been solid (103 TJ Stuff+ overall), and he is known for flooding the strike zone (55.3% zone rate).
Is Estevez an elite closer? Probably not. But he’s a “good” closer, and even good ones have stretches where they look quite pedestrian (I saw someone on Twitter compare Estevez to James McArthur, and I rolled my eyes). That has value not only to the team they’re on, but also to other teams seeking bullpen help at the moment.
Estevez also has one more year guaranteed at $10.1 million and a club option for 2026 at $13 million. Thus, he is not a rental and could bring value to a team for 2026 and 2027, should they wish to retain him. Estevez has proven to be durable in his career, having pitched 55 or more innings from 2021 to 2024.
As I mentioned in a previous post, the Yankees have seemed to be keeping their eye on Estevez as a possible boost to their bullpen, as reported by Francys Romero on Twitter.
The Yankees could be a good fit as Estevez would just be needed to provide stability in the bullpen, not be the “man”. They currently have Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, who seem to be doing well after rough stretches earlier in the year. That said, both closers have injury histories, so Estevez could provide the much-needed backup if one of them goes down in the second half.
A possible target for the Royals could be Spencer Jones, the Yankees’ fourth-best prospect, according to Fangraphs.
I am not the biggest fan of Yankees position prospects (Jesus Montero and Estevan Florial soured me), but Jones brings legitimate power to a club that doesn’t have that in the upper Minor Leagues part of their farm system. 100th percentile barrel, launch, and hard-hit rate rankings shouldn’t be shrugged at, even at Triple-A.
Safe to say, no other hitters in Omaha are providing that profile.
Granted, the whiffs are a concern with Jones and his outlook at the MLB level. He has a 37.6% whiff rate and 26.6% K rate, which rank in the bottom 1st and 22nd percentiles, respectively. That could be exposed, as Royals fans have seen from Jac Caglianone, who had better percentiles than that in those categories in Omaha.
Nonetheless, I think the Royals organization is due to make some changes to their hitting coaching staff and hitting development philosophy over the following offseason. Thus, Jones could be not only a test case for this new hitting staff, but perhaps a success story if things fall into place correctly. That’s why I would be okay with the Royals pursuing Jones in a possible Estevez deal, despite Yankee prospects’ questionable track record with other organizations.
Jones in LF and Cags in RF could help provide some significant power in the middle of the batting order in 2026, which could solve an area that has plagued the Royals for years, even during the Dayton Moore era.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
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