Going into tonight’s game against Seattle, the Royals are 39-45, sitting 13.5 games behind the AL Central division-leading Tigers, and 4.5 games behind the last AL Wild Card spot (which belongs to the Mariners/Astros). It’s been a disappointing 2025 for Kansas City, especially after they went 86-76 in 2024 and made it to the ALDS against the Yankees.
It’s been a rough month for the Royals in June, based on Baseball-Reference splits data.
As of June 30th, the Royals are 8-17 with a winning percentage of .320, the worst mark of any month so far this season (and only month with a winning percentage under .500).
To make matters worse, Kansas City has given up 110 runs and only scored 83 runs, a differential of -27. Their 110 runs allowed is the most of any whole month (they allowed under 100 runs in April and May), and their 83 runs scored is the second-worst mark this year (they scored 76 in April).
On May 31st, Kansas City was 31-28, 0.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot, with a run differential of -6. Now, that run differential is -33.
The Royals could still beat the Mariners on Monday night and finish June with a 9-17 record, which would bring their record up to 40-45 entering July. However, they are down 6-2 going into the ninth and likely will finish the month 8-18 (and 39-46 overall).
Regardless, the Kansas City “June Swoon” has had Royals fans rethinking the club’s outlook for the remainder of 2025.
Here are three takeaways that are on the minds of Royals fans after this brutal month of play.
The Royals Are Not A Playoff Team
The Royals are not eliminated from the postseason, but the odds are dwindling with every loss.
As of Monday, according to Fangraphs, their playoff odds are 10.5%. The only teams with actual odds lower than that are the Angels (7.1%), Orioles (3.5%), and Athletics (0.3%). (The White Sox have 0.0% odds and have had that mark for practically the entire season.)
Fangraphs is also projecting them to finish with 77.9 wins and 84.1 losses, based on all their simulations. That means it’s possible that the Royals could win 78 or 79 games or 76 or 77, based on their projection model.
Regardless of the exact number, it’s highly likely that the Royals will finish the 2025 season with a losing record, their eighth in nine seasons (they had a .500 record in 2016).
Could the Royals go on a 2024 Detroit Tigers-esque run in the second half? Perhaps, but they will need a dramatic turnaround from their offense, and the initial outlook doesn’t look good.
Right now, the Royals have the fourth-worst wRC+ in baseball at 82.7. Furthermore, it is also the second-worst in the AL by only 2.8 points (the White Sox have a 79.9 mark).
As fans can see, the Royals have a lot of climbing out to do to get to a respectable level in terms of wRC+, especially with the Guardians 5.5 points ahead, the Twins 16.9 points ahead, and the Tigers 29.8 points ahead.
With 77 games remaining after tonight, it seems unlikely that an offensive resurgence or much catch-up will happen. Thus, it appears to be a done deal that their future this season will be as a team that fails to achieve a winning record, let alone return to the postseason.
The Royals Should Be “Focused” Sellers at the Trade Deadline
With those expectations being known, the Royals should pivot to being sellers at the Trade Deadline, though they shouldn’t “blow up” their roster by any means.
It’s possible that the Royals could restructure their roster a bit and build back up to a winning club as soon as 2026. They will return Michael Wacha and Noah Cameron next year and should have a fully healthy Cole Ragans. They also have developed a much better bullpen this season, with years of control and adequate depth in Omaha.
However, they need to find some help on the offensive end, especially in the long term.
The Royals need at least two to three more bats to be a playoff-caliber team again. Unfortunately, that may not exist in Omaha, even with now top prospect Carter Jensen in Omaha and playing the MLB Futures Game.
The Royals would benefit from acquiring a couple of young bats who are blocked at the Major League level or could use a change of scenery. To obtain such talent, the Royals would likely need to part with either Seth Lugo or Kris Bubic.
At the surface level, such deals would be painful, especially with Bubic and Lugo being two of the top arms currently in the Kansas City rotation. Bubic has been the Royals’ best pitcher on a fWAR end this year, while Lugo is a bit behind, though he’s catching up after a slow start to the 2025 season (as well as a finger injury that put him out a start).
While Bubic and Lugo have solid ERA numbers at 2.18 and 2.74, respectively, their xFIP numbers aren’t as impressive. Bubic has a 3.31 xFIP while Lugo has a 4.00 xFIP. Both of those xFIP numbers are worse than Ragans’, who had a 2.47 xFIP before being placed on the IL due to a shoulder injury.
Thus, Ragans is and should still be the “ace” of this rotation in 2026, even if Bubic and Lugo were still around. Bubic and Lugo could be subject to more rotation in 2026, and they both would need extensions to stay in Kansas City long term. Lugo can opt out of his deal after this season, and Bubic will be a free agent after 2026.
I discussed Bubic’s regression in my post yesterday, which should be concerning for Royals fans who believe he’s an “ace” in the long term. Lugo has had the inverse June performance of Bubic in terms of results. However, the TJ Stuff+ metrics still appear similar to those from April and May, according to TJ Stats.
There always is a high value for starting pitching, especially with Lugo’s pedigree and Bubic’s upside (Bubic is still only 27 years old and is pitching in his first full season since having Tommy John surgery in 2023). After all, the Royals got Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer for Brady Singer, whose stuff and results have not been quite as impressive as Lugo’s or Bubic’s this season.
The Royals don’t have many more assets than Lugo and Bubic.
Estevez still has a lot of years left on his contract, and his lack of strikeouts may deter teams from pursuing him. It’s unlikely that any teams will give up much for India, especially after a down season. And while bullpen arms can get something in return (the Royals got Nelson Velazquez for Jose Cuas in 2023), I don’t think arms beyond Estevez or Lucas Erceg will return all that much.
If the Royals want to get offensive talent of note (and talent they can hold onto for a long time), they need to push Lugo and Bubic in trade talks over the next month.
The Royals Need to Turn the Page On A Lot Of Players
Kansas City can get better in 2026, even on the offensive end. However, that will require the club to make some tough decisions, especially on players they’ve long held onto.
MJ Melendez came into this season needing to take a step forward, especially offensively. Unfortunately, he struggled with a -6 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in only 52 plate appearances. He’s been in Triple-A since April 19th, and he’s posting a 71 wRC+ in 244 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers.
Even though he’s hitting the ball hard again, he’s still struggling with the same whiff and strikeout problems in Omaha.
Michael Massey had a promising campaign in 2024, hitting 14 home runs, posting a 103 wRC+, and a 1.5 fWAR in 100 games and 356 plate appearances. However, he’s tanked this year with a 26 wRC+ and -1.1 fWAR in 56 games and 209 plate appearances. He’s still making a lot of contact, but he’s not doing much power-wise when making contact.
Lastly, outfielders Drew Waters and John Rave, as well as utility player Nick Loftin, have demonstrated that they really can’t be depended upon as everyday MLB players. Loftin got off to a hot start, but he’s hitting .180 with a 55 wRC+ and has a 0.1 fWAR in 22 games and 67 plate appearances. He’s also failing to do much with the ball when he makes contact, a problem that has dogged him in the past two seasons at the MLB level.
The Royals need a new vision for their hitting program from the Minor League to the Major League level. That change most likely will happen in the offseason, starting with hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, who’s been firmly on the hot seat this season.
However, coaching and development are only parts of the answer.
They also need to bring in new talent at the Deadline and this offseason. To bring in new talent, they need to part ways with some of the old talent that’s been drafted and developed by the Royals.
These decisions aren’t easy for JJ Picollo and this front office, especially given his close ties to scouting and drafting these hitters (or trading for them, as in the case of Waters).
However, if change is to happen and if winning is to occur again in 2026, removing these players sooner rather than later will benefit the club in both the short and long term. It will give Picollo the ability to be more creative and flexible with possible roster additions, especially at the July Trade Deadline.
Photo Credit: Matt Dirksen/Getty Images
Ok. So we are not likely making it in ’25. We knew that our OF was offensively sketchy from the get go. Here’s an idea: Seth Lugo, Waters and Massey to the Cubs for 3b/of Matt Shaw, lf Ian Happ and 2b Nicco Hoerner? Maybe throw in a player with team,control (Loftin or Rave), for Seija Suzuki to field like Hunter Renfroe but actually hit…
The real trick will be in signing Happy, Hoerner and Suzuki after the season. Shaw can be moved to play in the outfield rotation as an offensive option to Kyle Ysbel.
I would trade 30 year old Fermin for a real need and bring up Jensen to see some MLB pitching and get ready to spell Salvy next year as Salvy picks up more DH at bats.. Fermin is a good catcher, but age is ruthless and while he hits well for a catcher (I see him hitting .260 with 15 Hr’s and a .330 OBP. RBI numbers depend on who he hits behind of) but his best value to us is as a trading chip. We have 3 prospects that project better offensively.
What do you think?
I think getting all three would be tough, especially since I don’t think Waters or Massey have a ton of value (though Massey has more). I also think Shaw is probably out, especially with him doing much better since his call up. That said, the Cubs system is flush. I would be okay with Happ or Hoerner and maybe a prospect or two for Lugo and Massey.
I agree about Fermin. He has been great, but he doesn’t fit this team long term and you want to get something for him while you still can. I think they don’t need to rush Jensen just yet, but they can move up Luca Tresh this year as Jensen continues to get at-bats and work with higher level pitchers at Triple-A.