The “Salute to the Negro League” game at Kauffman Stadium is always one I look forward to every year. Granted, the game has lost some pageantry due to MLB no longer allowing Negro League uniforms for the Royals’ annual contest (thanks, Fanatics and Rob Manfred). Thankfully, I am not alone in thinking this move by MLB is shortsighted and ruins opportunities to grow the game.
Despite this obstacle, the game always highlights the contributions of the Negro League to Kansas City and its rich baseball history.
In addition to their special “Salute to the Negro Leagues” hat, former Negro League legends Sam Allen and Pedro Sierra also threw out the first pitch.
Unfortunately, the game was somewhat dampened not just by the rain (the first pitch was delayed by an hour), but also by the fact that it was against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
I’m not going to lie, I always come into Royals games against the Dodgers, especially at Kauffman Stadium, with a little more energy.
It may be due to my upbringing as a Giants fan (with most of my family holding ties to the Orange and Black in the Bay Area). That said, Dodgers fans are a different kind of annoying and are arguably worse than Yankees or Cardinals fans, who both have a bad reputation among Royals fans.
Unfortunately, Sunday afternoon was the kind of game that allowed Dodgers fans to be obnoxious.
The “Bums” (as most in the Bay Area like to call them) scored five runs, which included home runs from Enrique Hernandez and catcher Will Smith. That was more than enough in the Dodgers’ 5-1 win, as the Royals’ offense failed to do much against bulk man Justin Wrobleski, who came in after Lou Trivino opened the game.
The Royals got their lone run in the first inning off Trivino. After a Jonathan India single, Bobby Witt Jr. drove India home with a double down the left field line. That put the Royals in scoring position with nobody out and the 3-4-5 part of the order coming up.
Unfortunately, Kansas City was unable to capitalize on the opportunity. Maikel Garcia advanced Witt to third on a groundout to the second baseman. However, Vinnie Pasquantino popped out to the second baseman, and Salvador Perez struck out to end the inning.
The Royals’ offense stayed dormant after that promising first inning.
As illustrated in the Tweet above, Wrobleski allowed zero runs on three hits and one walk in six innings. He struck out six batters, but that was primarily due to him flooding the strike zone rather than generating a ton of whiffs or chases.
Here’s a look at his TJ Stats summary chart from today’s game, and notice the extremely high zone rate but mediocre whiff and chase rates.
Wrobleski only produced a 22.2% chase rate and 20% whiff rate, which are mediocre marks. That said, he had a 67.5% zone rate and only allowed a .327 xwOBACON. Thus, Wrobleski was not only able to get ahead and keep Royals hitters off balance, but he also limited productive contact when Royals hitters DID connect with the ball.
Here’s a glance at his pitch results chart from Sunday, and Wrobleski did an excellent job of painting the edges and not allowing productive contact on pitches that were in more hittable areas of the strike zone.
The Royals didn’t put the ball in play on anything middle-middle from Wrobleski. The 24-year-old lefty also got all his punchouts on pitches on the edges of the strike zone. That demonstrated how sharp Wrobleski’s command was on Sunday, much to the Royals’ hitters (and fans’) chagrin.
When it came to his overall pitch chart, Wrobleski peppered the zone with a variety of different offerings and didn’t make many mistakes, which explains his .327 xwOBACON in the series finale.
Wrobleski had a pretty simple game plan against the Royals: fastballs up, sinkers on the edges, and sliders down and on the edges. Even though Wrobleski’s ERA coming into this one wasn’t impressive (4.91), he has been much better recently after a slow start to the season.
Wrobleski showcased an excellent approach and solid command in the Dodgers’ victory. However, that shouldn’t excuse a Royals offense that once again looked lost and ill-prepared for a pitcher with whom they had little experience.
After getting a double in the first inning, Witt struck out three times in the game, including twice against Wrobleski. The four-through-seven hitters in the Royals lineup (Vinnie-Salvy-Jac-Canha) went a combined 0-for-14 against the Dodgers’ pitching staff. The only hitter that did anything on Sunday after the first inning was Garcia. However, his two singles didn’t result in runs due to the rest of the batting order’s ineptness.
This is a familiar story for Royals fans: the offense shows signs early but tapers off for the remainder of the game.
Kansas City looked overmatched by Wrobleski and the Dodgers’ bullpen in this one, while the Dodgers seemed a bit more locked in, even if they didn’t tremendously out-hit the Royals. When comparing their spray charts from this game, Los Angeles pulled the ball more often and hit it generally deeper than Kansas City, which explains why the Dodgers scored four more runs.
In another ballpark, the Dodgers could have made this one more of a blowout. However, the Royals, even with some decent batted-ball fortune, couldn’t do enough on the offensive end to take advantage.
This kind of series loss, unfortunately, is expected against a team like the Dodgers, who are 53-32 now after their Sunday victory. Nonetheless, with the Royals now 39-45, 13.0 games behind in the AL Central and 4.5 games behind the last Wild Card spot, these losses hurt even more (regardless of the opponent), as they shut the Royals’ playoff window this year even tighter.
Bubic Finishes Month of Regression
There’s no question that Kris Bubic had a sensational start to the 2025 season. After all, he earned AL Pitch of the Month in May thanks to his 0.56 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 33 strikeouts, and eight walks allowed in five starts and 32.1 IP.
Unfortunately, regression has hit the former Stanford product hard in June.
After Sunday’s start, Bubic allowed a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 27.2 IP. He still struck out 31 batters and only walked nine, a 3.44 K/BB ratio. However, he gave up more hits (30) than innings pitched, and his 15 runs allowed (13 earned) were more than his March-through-May runs allowed combined (13).
When it comes to seeing what’s been different in June compared to the other months, his TJ Stats comparison chart doesn’t exactly paint an “exact” picture.
The stuff has been pretty similar, as Bubic’s 103 TJ Stuff+ in June is only one point below his 104 TJ Stuff+ from March to May. He’s also producing a better chase rate, as his 38.8% June chase is 7.3% better than his March-Through-May rate.
That said, Bubic has seen a slight regression in whiff (30.3% to 28.4%) and a significant regression in zone rate. After posting a 53.5% zone rate from March to May, he only produced a 49.5% zone rate in June. As a result, it seemed like he worked behind more in the past month than he did in the previous two months (well, two and a day, to be specific).
Unsurprisingly, hitters have been hitting the ball more productively in June, as evidenced by Bubic’s .408 xwOBACON allowed, 59 points higher than the March-Through-May mark. His Savant spray heatmaps from March to May and June also demonstrate that opposing hitters are not only spraying the ball more all over the field, but hitting the ball deeper as well (which is typically not a good thing).
In the first two months, Bubic was able to generate a lot of pulled groundballs to the left side. That has been less prevalent in June. Furthermore, notice how many blue circles are located beyond the fence. That indicates that hitters have been barreling the ball more against Bubic in June, which is not an encouraging sign for his outlook for the remainder of the year.
His performance on Sunday afternoon also mirrored a lot of what his previous starts in June were like, based on his TJ Stats summary data.
Bubic’s stuff was fine, as evidenced by a 103 TJ Stuff+. He also produced a lot of chase with a 36.5% mark. However, he only had a 42.2% zone rate, a 23.8% whiff rate, and allowed a whopping .534 xwOBACON in five innings of work.
It’s not a bad outing for Bubic, especially against an offense as potent as the Dodgers. His month also wasn’t poor by any means. A 4.23 ERA is fine, especially considering how “elite” his previous two months were. A month of regression was to be expected, especially for a pitcher who primarily pitched out of the bullpen in 2024 and came off Tommy John surgery in 2023.
That said, the Royals are going to need to make some tough decisions at the Trade Deadline. Seth Lugo has already been mentioned in trade talks, as rumors circulated that the Royals and Cubs had discussed a potential trade last week.
With Bubic a free agent after 2026, the Royals may look to trade Bubic as well, especially if they can receive an exorbitant package that includes hitters who can help both in the short and long term (whether they are current MLB players, prospects, or both).
Does Jac Need to Go Back Down To Omaha?
It was another rough day for Jac Caglianone at the plate. He went 0-for-3 with three groundouts, all with exit velocities under 81 MPH. They also were pulled and didn’t have any shot of getting through to the outfield, as seen in his spray chart from today below.
It’s been a rough season so far for the rookie slugger, especially at Kauffman Stadium.
In 42 plate appearances at home, Cags is slashing .125/.167/.125 with a .292 OPS. That also includes two walks and 13 strikeouts, suitable for a 0.15 BB/K ratio. In 45 plate appearances on the road, he is slashing .214/.267/.429 with a .696. He only has two walks in away games, but he also has only seven strikeouts, nearly half his home number.
When examining his home and away spray charts via Savant, Cags has demonstrated an ability to barrel and pull the ball air better on the road, which is promising to see. At home, all his batted balls are pretty much pulled groundouts except a few deep flyouts.
As Royals fans can see above, Cags’ spray chart on the road looks more tolerable, especially with a spattering of doubles and home runs. He is also pulling the ball much better on the road, while productive pulling at Kauffman Stadium is non-existent.
Thus, I would be hesitant to demote Cags to Omaha just yet, especially since there aren’t a whole lot of great options in Omaha right now. MJ Melendez and Joey Wiemer may be the most MLB-ready options, but their Statcast profiles still showcase a sizeable number of flaws and concerns.
For comparison, here’s what Cags’ Statcast profile looks like at the MAJOR League level.
At the very least, Cags has shown an ability to hit the ball hard, even if he’s been whiffing a lot. Furthermore, his road splits make me wonder if he’s feeling the pressure at home too much and if he could break out at Kauffman in a couple of weeks after a good road trip next week (which includes stops in Seattle and Arizona, who are solid but not as good as the Rays and Dodgers).
Regardless, he’s seen a massive drop in performance recently, and that is demonstrated in both his wOBA and xwOBA rolling charts, via Savant.
That steep drop is concerning, but I would like to see if Cags can rebound from it, especially away from the “hopeful” eyes of Kauffman Stadium.
If Cags continues to nosedive in his wOBA and xwOBA charts, then I think JJ Picollo should option Cags back down to Omaha to work on some adjustments at the plate and get his confidence up.
However, he deserves at least one more week, especially since it’s not like the Royals have a lot of great options now to fill in for him. There is a possibility that the Royals could call up Massey for Cags, as Massey is hitting well in his rehab stint in Omaha.
That said, Massey still may need another week, since he only has 14 plate appearances under his belt. Furthermore, I would rather see Massey come up for someone like John Rave or Drew Waters, who haven’t looked great recently at the plate.
It’s possible that a demotion to the Minors could be a good thing, as it would allow Cags to work on his pitch recognition and also enable the Royals to acquire another hitter on the trade market. The Royals then could bring Cags back up later in the season (in late August or September) in a less-pressure environment.
However, Cags deserves at least one more week, especially on the road, where he’s been much better. If he continues this slide away from Kauffman, then he should be optioned back to Omaha before they return to Kansas City for the Pittsburgh Pirates series.
Photo Credit: Kevin O’Brien/Royals Reporter
[…] discussed Bubic’s regression in my post yesterday, which should be concerning for Royals fans who believe he’s an “ace” in the long […]