After sweeping the Rangers in Arlington, the Royals have improved their record to 37-38 and head to San Diego this weekend for a big series against the 40-34 Padres.
San Diego has been on a recent slide, as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games. However, they won the series finale against the Dodgers on the road on Thursday and it was an emotional game that saw both managers get into it.
The Padres are a team that could be trending in the right direction, especially with them returning home to Petco Park for the weekend. That said, they don’t have the same kind of rivalry with the Royals as they do with the Dodgers, so one has to wonder if San Diego may be due for an emotional letdown, especially on Friday night.
Nonetheless, the Royals are playing some good ball on this road trip, and it would be nice to see them continue that in California. I discussed the hitting performances of Maikel Garcia and Jac Caglianone in recent posts, and the Royals’ lineup needs to continue producing in San Diego this weekend, especially since the Padres’ pitching staff has been a little inconsistent recently.
However, the Royals’ bullpen was the unsung heroes of the Rangers series and will be the primary focus of this edition of the “Three Stars.”
From June 17th through the 19th, the Royals’ bullpen didn’t allow a single run in 9.2 innings of work. They also didn’t walk a single batter, allowed only six hits, and struck out 10 batters. According to Fangraphs, their 0.99 FIP was the third-best mark among all teams in baseball over those three days (only Atlanta and Seattle were better).
Hence, let’s look at three Royals relievers who stood out in Texas and why they will be key for the upcoming weekend in San Diego.
1st Star: Steven Cruz (2 G, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2K, 1 HLD)
Cruz continues to be one of the Royals’ most underrated relievers in 2025.
Acquired from Minnesota in the Michael A. Taylor trade after the 2022 season, Cruz is shoving in the Royals’ bullpen this season. In 28 appearances and 28 innings pitched, he has a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. His advanced metrics also look solid, as he has a 2.36 xERA, 2.85 FIP, and 0.4 fWAR. Those substantial numbers are primarily due to his strong strikeout rate (25.9%) and strikeout-to-walk percentage (19.4%).
What makes Cruz also so valuable is that he’s been a groundball machine, giving him versatility when the whiffs aren’t coming. He’s only allowing a hard-hit rate of 34.7% this season, and his 45.8% groundball rate is a 2.9% improvement from a year ago.
When looking at his xwOBA, he’s shown progress over the past couple of years in terms of inducing hitters to produce below-average xwOBA marks. That’s a testament to his personal growth as a pitcher as well as the efforts of the Royals’ pitching development team over the past two seasons.
Against the Rangers, Cruz made two appearances and was excellent against some big-name Texas hitters.
In 2.0 IP, he didn’t allow a run or walk, only gave up one hit, and earned a hold in the process. When looking at his Stuff and plate discipline metrics via TJ Stats, Cruz was able to keep Rangers hitters guessing when he was on the mound, as evidenced by his high chase and whiff rates.
Cruz produced a chase rate of 45.5%, a whiff rate of 30.8%, and an xwOBACON of 0.156. His overall TJ Stuff+ was 106, with his slider being his best pitch stuff-wise with a 117 mark. His four-seamer was also impressive, showcasing a 111 TJ Stuff+ as well as a chase rate of 66.7% and whiff rate of 40%.
Below is an example of Cruz utilizing his 100 MPH fastball to punch out Texas’s Jonah Heim to end the game on Tuesday.
Cruz may not have entered the season with much fanfare. That said, his strong stuff and ability to minimize hard contact have made him one of the better Kansas City middle relievers in the bullpen this year.
2nd Star: John Schreiber (2 G, 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 HLD)
It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for Schreiber in his second season in Kansas City.
On one end, he’s pretty much been the same pitcher this year. His 3.72 ERA is only six points worse, and his 1.34 WHIP is only two points higher. He has shown some improvement in his control metrics, as his 17.7% K-BB% is 6.1% higher than his mark a season ago, and his strikeout rate is 5.3% higher as well.
Unfortunately, the long ball has been an issue for Schreiber this year.
After only allowing an HR/9 of 0.17 a season ago, his mark has ballooned to 1.55 this season in 29 innings of work. He is allowing less hard contact this year (35.4%) compared to 2024 (37%). However, hitters are launching the ball better, as evidenced by a 43.2% groundball rate (an 8.1% decline) and an 11% barrel rate allowed. The latter is 7.1% higher than his barrel rate in 2024.
The increase in barrels and homers has done havoc on his FIP (4.13, 1.10 higher). Still, Schreiber has been one of the Royals’ more dependable relievers, and he should be in better spots with Lucas Erceg back off the IL.
Schreiber demonstrated what he could do in this past series when he was in lower-leverage spots.
In two outings and 1.2 IP, Schreiber allowed no hits, no runs, and no walks while striking out two. He collected two holds and kept the productive contact at a minimum, as evidenced by a .245 xwOBACON. His Stuff and plate discipline metrics also were impressive against the Rangers, as seen in his TJ Stats summary below.
Schreiber did what any good reliever needs to do: throw strikes (55.6% zone rate), generate whiffs (55.6% whiff rate), and induce hitters to chase pitches out of the zone (37.5% chase rate). His overall TJ Stuff+ was only 100, which is average. That said, his sweeper was excellent, as demonstrated by a 109 TJ Stuff+, 50% whiff, and 50% chase.
The 31-year-old veteran righty can be a bit polarizing with Royals fans, especially since he is thrust into so many high-leverage situations by manager Matt Quatraro. However, against the Rangers, he seemed to channel his best form, which helped lead the Royals to two victories in his appearances.
3rd Star: Carlos Estevez (2 G, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 SV)
Estevez may not have the strikeout stuff that’s expected for a typical closer, which makes him a bit of a dilemma for Royals fans who are unsure of his long-term future in Kansas City. (Should he be shopped at the deadline if the season goes south?)
In 32.2 innings, Estevez sports a 20.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% strikeout-to-walk rate. Those marks are 2.9% and 7.5% lower than a year ago. His 23.1% CSW is also 5.5% lower than a year ago, and his 7.5% swinging-strike rate is five percent lower as well.
Thus, it seems like the 32-year-old reliever is due for a hard regression soon.
And yet, Estevez continues to battle in the ninth innings and close things down for the Royals this season, as demonstrated by his 21 saves in 24 chances. His 21 saves lead all of Major League baseball, as pointed out by Royals radio announcer Jake Eisenberg yesterday.
Against Texas, Estevez had his usual stretch. He didn’t generate a single strikeout, and his whiff rate was low at 11.1%. That said, he still demonstrated solid stuff and minimized the damage that Rangers did on batted balls in his two outings (which resulted in saves).
Estevez’s TJ Stuff+ was 104 in his two outings, and his slider was his best pitch, stuff-wise, with a 107 TJ Stuff+. Estevez did leave some pitches too middle-middle against the Rangers, which can be seen in his pitch type and description charts below. However, his ability to dot the edges for the most part caught Texas hitters unprepared, which explains why they didn’t have any base hits on those “mistakes” in the zone.
Estevez is an “old school” closer in the style of Dan Quisenberry, who only had a career K/9 of 3.3. Estevez challenges hitters frequently, but also challenges them in areas where it’s tough to do considerable damage unless they’re sitting on that area.
Does that make Estevez the best fantasy closer? Probably not, though if you pair him with some strikeout-heavy setup men, his lack of whiffs hurts him less in traditional 5×5 formats and points leagues.
That said, the Royals are playing actual baseball, not fantasy. Thus, Estevez has given the Royals exactly what they need, and he should bounce back even more now that Erceg is healthy and back in the bullpen mix.
Underdog Fantasy Picks for June 20th
As usual, I try to make Underdog Fantasy Champions picks every Friday and will do it with my Three Stars posts. Here are my four picks for tonight’s slate of AL Central games.
Martin goes against Toronto, a lineup that ranks 12th in wRC+ and seems to be hitting well as of late. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been on fire, and I think Martin, a contact-heavy pitcher, will struggle on the road, North of the Border.
Vinnie Pasquantino is my second pick and will be facing Nick Pivetta, a right-hander with whom the Royals have had some success (back in his Boston days). Vinnie didn’t have a ton of batted-ball luck in Arlington, but he showed on Thursday that his power is back with a two-run home run in the first inning.
The Tigers hit the road against a surging Rays team (they are 2nd in the AL East with a 41-34 record). However, Shane Baz has struggled with the long ball, as evidenced by a 16.7% HR/FB rate. I like Riley Greene having a big day against Baz in the Rays’ Minor League ballpark.
Lastly, the Brewers have a middle-of-the-road offense with a middle-of-the-road strikeout rate (22%). Minnesota’s Joe Ryan has been a strikeout savant with a 28.3% K rate. I think he has his way with the Brewers lineup, especially with the Twins hosting this one at Target Field, where Ryan’s command (26.8% K-BB% at home) has fared better than on the road (20.2% K-BB%).
Graphic Credit: Kevin O’Brien and Jared Perkins/Crown Talk Podcast