What a difference a few days can make.
Before the series started, things were at an all-time low for the Royals. They had just gotten swept by the first-place New York Yankees and the last-place Sacramento (formerly Oakland) Athletics. Many fans were advocating for changes, whether they be of the player or coaching variety (including myself on this blog). Lastly, some fans were claiming that the Royals needed to be “sellers” this summer by the Trade Deadline, as this group did not appear to be a playoff team (unlike the previous season).
How the narrative can change quickly, which is both the beauty and the curse of Major League Baseball.
The Texas Rangers were a “hot” team going into this series against the Royals at home in Arlington. After getting swept in Tampa on June 3rd-5th, the Rangers had won seven of their last nine, which included a sweep in the previous series against the White Sox at Globe Life Field.
Safe to say, confidence was high among Texas fans going into this week’s series against the Royals (and rightfully so after Kansas City’s brutal homestand in the previous week).
Instead, the Royals swept the Rangers in dominating fashion, as Texas never seemed close in any game in this three-game set. After winning 6-1 on Tuesday and 6-3 on Wednesday, the Royals completed the sweep on Thursday afternoon by winning 4-1.
After outscoring the Rangers 16-5 in this series, the Royals are now 37-38 with a run differential of -17. That puts their xW-L at 35-40, a lot more tolerable than where it was on Sunday. Furthermore, Kansas City still has a better run differential than the Cleveland Guardians, who have a -24 mark (their record is now 37-36 after losing their finale in San Francisco against the Giants).
As I have written before on this blog, the season is still too early to make any conclusions about whether the Royals should be buyers or sellers at the Trade Deadline. After their successful series in Texas, the Royals are now 1.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot in the American League. Even though the Red Sox hold the last Wild Card spot, the Guardians, Mariners, Twins, Rangers, and Angels (in addition to the Royals) are all within three games of Boston.
The Royals have a chance to go on a run at the end of June and beginning of July before the All-Star Break to build some much-needed momentum before they make a possibly “franchise-altering” trade. I do think GM JJ Picollo does something to help the Royals improve by July 31st.
The main question, though, is whether that move will improve the team in 2026? Or in the second half of 2025?
A move with eyes for 2026 won’t involve a top prospect like Carter Jensen. It may involve some lower-ranked prospects or movement of veterans who may not have a long-term future in Kansas City (Seth Lugo, Jonathan India, etc.). That said, if the Royals are thinking about 2026, Jensen has to be a part of the equation, especially with Salvy’s future questionable after next season.
A move for 2025?
That could involve Jensen and perhaps more, which may be tough to stomach for Royals fans who have PTSD from the prospect-heavy trades Dayton Moore made from 2012 to 2015 with Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Cincinnati. They produced two AL Pennants and a World Series title. However, it left the system gutted after 2017 (which ultimately led to his dismissal in 2022).
There is still time to determine what Picollo’s plan and vision will be for the Deadline, with so much depending on the Royals’ performance on the field (which has been hard to predict this season with many ups and downs).
If the Royals are in the 50-plus win range, then it’s easy to see him pursue the latter. Below that? It will likely be the former, which would be a sound decision, but still disappointing considering the preseason expectations with this club.
The Cags Era Truly Arrives in Texas
Jac Caglianone had a dud of a home debut, to put it nicely.
In 23 plate appearances a week ago at Kauffman Stadium, Cags slashed .182/.217/.182 with a .399 OPS. He also struck out six times, only walked once, and had zero base hits.
Thus, it’s not surprising to see some Royals fans freaking out on social media that Cags was going to be a disappointment this year and beyond, despite his massive hype.
The road trip started slowly for Cags, as he arguably had his worst performance of the year at the plate.
In Tuesday’s win, the former Florida Gator went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. When looking at his pitch type and description charts from that game, he didn’t get a whole lot of great pitches to hit. Unfortunately, he overextended the zone, which ultimately hurt him significantly in terms of results.
Manager Matt Quatraro wisely sat Cags against lefty Patrick Corbin yesterday and put him in on Thursday against Shawn Armstrong and the Rangers’ bullpen.
Surprisingly, Cags’ first MLB home run came on a ridiculously high pitch against lefty pitcher Jacob Latz.
The home run seemed to ease some of the pressure that had been weighing on Cags ever since his Kauffman debut. While he had a weak “swinging bunt” groundout in his next at-bat, he provided more fireworks in his last plate appearances of the game against lefty reliever Robert Garcia.
The swing against Garcia is what Royals fans were used to seeing from Cags in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha this season: Relaxed, compact, and powerful. Not only did Cags produce an exit velocity of 110.2 MPH on the homer, but his swing speed was also 80.8 MPH, the third-fastest swing speed of the game (only Adolis Garcia and Kyle Isbel produced faster swings).
A significant source of fan frustration with Cags entering this game was his inability to launch the ball at the Major League level. Even though it’s a small sample, Cags is only averaging a launch angle of 4.6 degrees (subpar) and a LA Sweet-Spot% of 33.3% (which is around league average).
Today, however, based on his radial chart, Cags showed what he can do when everything clicks for him in terms of contact.
Notice the dark teal area where his pink dots (home runs) land. That’s what one wants to see from a hitter in these types of charts.
The Rangers tried to pitch Cags away today, based on his pitch type and description charts via Savant. However, he was more disciplined today with his swing decisions, and he took advantage when pitchers made mistakes (notice the one inside pitch he got, which ultimately led to his home run against Garcia).
There is still a lot of growth ahead for Cags as a big leaguer, which was evident today, even with the two titanic home runs.
He made a bad error in the third inning in right field. It appeared like he lost the ball and ended up dropping what appeared to be an easy pop-up by Texas’s Jonah Heim (there was discussion on the broadcast about the lighting being difficult when the roof is closed).
Additionally, although the Royals don’t want Cags to change who he is as a hitter fundamentally, it would also be beneficial to see him reduce his whiff and O-Swing% rates, based on what we have seen thus far via his Statcast percentiles.
Despite the growing pains, today showed why Picollo and the Royals promoted Cags in the first place.
He’s the kind of pure power threat who gives the Royals that home run potential in the middle of the batting order. They weren’t getting that from MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe, and they’re not going to get that either from John Rave or Nick Loftin.
They have that now with Cags, even if it may not be consistent initially, as he continues to adjust to the Major League level.
Wacha Continues to Craft Quality Starts
I thought one of the best moves the Royals made this offseason was not the trade of Brady Singer to Cincinnati for India, but agreeing to an extension with Michael Wacha.
First off, the move solidified their rotation for 2025, which ended up being greatly needed with Alec Marsh and Cole Ragans hitting the IL and Kyle Wright not yet ready for the Majors. The Royals have benefited from Noah Cameron and his breakout rookie campaign. That said, if Wacha hadn’t returned, the Royals’ rotation would be in major trouble right now (and they likely wouldn’t be in the Wild Card race).
The Orioles, who lost to the Royals in the Wild Card last season, are a prime example of what happens when a playoff team doesn’t invest in enough pitching in the offseason.
Furthermore, Wacha re-signing with the Royals showed that he viewed Kansas City as a winner not just in 2025, but also in the years to come. If he thought last year was a fluke or didn’t feel like he was valued, he would’ve opted for a lot more money (and possibly years) with another club this offseason.
Even though he was getting less buzz than Ragans and Seth Lugo in Spring Training, Wacha has arguably been the Royals’ most dependable starter in 2025.
In 15 starts and 86 IP, he has a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He hasn’t generated a whole lot of strikes (18.2%) or whiffs (21.2%), but he’s limited the walks (6.4% BB%) and limited hard contact as well (.353 xwOBACON). He also has demonstrated a diverse pitch arsenal with solid stuff metrics via TJ Stats.
On Thursday, Wacha had a typical performance on the mound, which was key for the Royals in their victory.
In six innings of work, Wacha only allowed one run on two hits and two walks. He also produced a whiff rate of 26.5% and CSW of 29% while allowing an average exit velocity of 87.6 MPH on batted balls. Over 97 pitches, Wacha only allowed four hard-hit balls, and his Stuff and Statcast metrics were impressive, as demonstrated in his TJ Stats summary card.
Wacha produced an overall TJ Stuff+ rating over 98, with his changeup and slider both ranking as his best pitches, both earning 102 TJ Stuff+ marks. He also flooded the strike zone with a zone percentage of 60.8% and minimized the productive contact with a .217 xwOBACON. He didn’t generate a ton of chase (15.8%), but Wacha played to his strengths and was efficient in his winning effort.
Here’s how Wacha’s pitch type and description charts looked from today, and even though he threw a lot of pitches in the zone, he did a good job of keeping balls low, especially his changeup.
Wacha did throw a lot of pitches in the middle, but it seemed like the Rangers didn’t take advantage. That’s a credit to Wacha throwing strikes, getting ahead in counts, and possessing a six-pitch arsenal.
Even when just looking at his pitch results, he did throw some pitches in the middle that could’ve been launched. That said, he at least avoided middle-middle, which explains why the Rangers didn’t do much damage in terms of hits or hard contact.
Overall, there was a lot to like about Wacha’s outing on Thursday, even though it may not get as much attention from baseball people outside of Royals Nation due to the lack of whiffs and strikeouts.
In big games this year (and even a season ago), Wacha has stepped up and either stopped the bleeding (i.e., avoided a sweep) or helped clinch important series wins/sweeps. He has been the veteran arm that can shove and keep the Royals in games, which is what this offense needs as they continue to figure things out.
That ability has made the contract Wacha received this offseason even more worthwhile, especially with Ragans on the shelf.
Photo Credit: Scott Kane/AP Photo
Mr. O’B, assuming Ragans is out of action until August at the earliest, and assuming Wright is ready to go at the break, what do you think the rotation would look like?
I think the rotation will look normal 1-5 with Lugo, Bubic, Wacha, Cameron, and Lorenzen. I wouldn’t be surprised if they add another starter and throw Lorenzen into a hybrid role. A couple of names who could make sense are Aaron Civale or Mike Sororka, with the latter being able to be the hybrid guy too.
[…] The Royals Reporter, Kevin O’Brien, leads us off, writing about yesterday’s game: […]
[…] The Royals Reporter, Kevin O’Brien, leads us off, writing about yesterday’s game: […]
I’m not sure if my perception is on in this matter, but I’d wager the team may have gotten a talk on being more selective at what they swing at and situational hitting as a whole. That might explain the reversal at the plate.
Further on that, Caglianone might benefit from some coaching geared towards keeping his swing within the strike zone. If he becomes more disciplined, and stops chasing balls out of the zone, pitchers will have to risk pitching in the zone or put him on. Cags reminds me of a Frank Howard, “Boog” Powell, Jim Thome type hitter. These are .300/40+ HR hitting types. This is well within his potential.
While Watcha is not an overpowering toolsy pitcher, as his numbers show, he appears to be intelligent as he uses the entire strike zone, and appears to use pitch speed to elicit results. As we approach July, and August, months where weak starters tend to break down, the Royals’ starting pitching depth will truly shine. If Ravens returns, he should be on a short leash (80 pitches) for a while, so when rosters expand, expect Kyle Wright to supplement him as he completes his comeback.
An issue that needs addressing is the logjam at catcher.Fermin should be traded to maximize his value. The more athletic of , Blake Mitchell, or Carter Jensen must choose to play 3b or RF (where their arms should add value) or realize that one of the two is likely to remain at Omaha. The question being if they want to be a AAA catcher more than a Major League ballplayer. That also allows Ramón Ramirez to move up to AAA. This alone could significantly impact our offense going forward.
I expect that we will trade for a bat-first left outfielder, and may trade Massey or/and India (neither has fulfilled expectations) along with Lugo to another Post-Season-Contender, who may have excess offensive capacity. I would like a young-ish .260+/15hr+/300TB type with an OBP of around .310, or better that is not a rental. Or, do we have an internal option in AAA LF/CF to plug in? Let’s say that we trade India, Massey and Fermin to a team with needs at catcher and middle infield, What could be a likely haul? Particularly, given our needs in the outfield…
I could see that happening. They have done looked a lot more patient and locked in at the plate. My guess is that they were pressing in that series and they got out of sorts. Good for them for calling that meeting and getting their heads back on track.
I think the “swinging inside the zone” will come for Cags. He already looks better on this road trip with his plate approach. After getting those two home runs, it looks like a weight has been lifted. He’s still going to have ups and downs, but he looks like a different hitter now and I see the chase going down. I know that’s been a priority with him in development in the minors.
I’m curious about trading Freddy because I’m not sure how much he gets back. He’s a backup at the end of the day and while that has value, I’m not sure it would be worth it to trade him now. He strikes me more as a guy who may be worth trading this offseason, especially if he can the bat going. As for catcher, I think Jensen will be in AAA soon. Mitchell and Ramirez are still recovering from some injuries, so they may need more time.
Massey to me makes the mot sense to trade. India looks a lot better since moving to second and I don’t think Massey hits well enough to be a super utility guy. I think they need to try to play him to max his value but I’m worried that he’s shot any trade value he once had (much like MJ).