It was bad enough that the Royals lost by eight runs on Tuesday night in front of a crowd of 30,017 at Kauffman Stadium.
On Wednesday, the gut punches continued to roll in as the Royals announced that Cole Ragans would be returning to the IL due to a rotator cuff injury.
The Royals are still in the early stages of determining the severity of Ragans’ injury, although it appears he will be on the IL for an extended period. According to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, Ragans began to feel some discomfort in his last start in St. Louis, and he seemed to aggravate it again yesterday while playing catch.
The Ragans injury comes at a challenging time for the Royals.
They are 3-5 in June and have lost three of their last four games (two against the White Sox; one against the Yankees). To make matters worse, at the time of this writing, the Royals are down 6-0, thanks to a five-run second inning off Kris Bubic, who’s been the best starting pitcher for Kansas City this season.
With the Royals on the verge of being .500 (they are currently 34-33), fans have to wonder how Ragans’ injury will impact the club’s outlook for the remainder of the season, especially if he misses an extended period. While Kansas City is trying to remain optimistic that he will return at some point this season, it can be challenging to determine the timetable with arm injuries, especially shoulder ones (Kyle Wright is coming off shoulder surgery, and he hasn’t pitched at the MLB level for over a year).
With the news of this injury and the hazy outlook of Ragans’ return to the mound, let’s look at three takeaways about how things look for the Royals for the remainder of the season.
More Pressure Will Be On the Royals’ Rotation
When Ragans returned from the IL last week against the Cardinals, it seemed like the Royals were in a position of luxury.
Kansas City had succeeded with Bubic, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Michael Lorenzen in Ragans’ absence, and Seth Lugo also returned off the IL in the previous series against the Tigers. Many Royals fans felt that the Royals were on the verge of going with a six-man rotation to preserve innings of this group, especially Bubic, who mainly pitched in relief last season.
When it comes to performance this year, Ragans’ ERA has been the least impressive of the bunch. He has a 5.18 ERA, which is the worst ERA of any Royals starter who has made at least one start this season.
Conversely, thanks to his excellent strikeout ability (14.05 K/9 this year), Ragans’ FIP is much better at 2.40. That is the best mark of any Royals starting pitcher this season. He also ranks second in fWAR with a 1.6 mark (behind only Bubic).
Here’s how he fares in various categories compared to six other Royals pitchers who have made starts this season, via Fangraphs.
Ragans may not have gotten off to the best start this season. However, his ERA would likely have regressed closer to his FIP throughout the season, provided he maintained substantial strikeout numbers.
Based on his TJ Stats summary card, which includes Stuff, plate discipline, and batted-ball metrics, it’s likely that Ragans would have continued to do so if he had stayed healthy.
The Royals still have depth to persevere in the wake of Ragans’ injury.
Cameron has solidified his spot in the rotation for most, if not the remainder of the season. Wright is also in Omaha on a rehab stint, though he got lit up a bit in his last outing on Tuesday in Toledo (five runs on six hits and four walks in 2.1 IP). Veteran Rich Hill could also be an option, as the Royals need to decide on his future in Kansas City soon due to his opt-out on June 15th.
Kansas City shouldn’t be in panic mode just yet with their rotation. That said, with Ragans on the shelf for (likely) a while, they have less room for error (or further injury).
Can The Royals’ Hitters Step Up?
The Royals’ pitching staff has carried this team to a 34-33 record through 67 games. While the Royals lost Ragans to the IL, they did welcome back Lucas Erceg and Jonathan Bowlan, who give some more depth to an overworked bullpen.
At the very least, the Royals’ bullpen should continue to be a strength of this club, especially if Erceg is fully healthy and his lower back issues are behind him.
That said, for the Royals to make any positive direction in the W-L record and the Wild Card and AL Central standings, the offense needs to get back to where they were a season ago.
Last season, according to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 10th in batting average (.248), 14th in wOBA (.307), and 20th in wRC+ (96). This year, they still rank 10th in batting average (.253), but they rank 26th in wOBA (.298), and 26th in wRC+ (85).
That shows that the Royals are getting base hits and putting the ball in play. Unfortunately, they are not getting on base enough by other means, and that’s affecting their ability to score runs (28th ranking). Kansas City’s 24th ranking in OBP (.305) and 30th ranking in walk rate (6.4%) further amplify those struggles.
It would also help if the Royals could turn more of their batted-ball hits into extra-base hits.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank 29th in ISO with a .119 mark (only the Pirates are worse). It would be encouraging to see some Royals hitters improve in their ISO categories in the coming months, with Salvy and Jonathan India being the primary candidates.
The Royals aren’t a total mess offensively. They are trending in the right direction offensively with a 100 wRC+ since Memorial Day (which ranks 12th). Furthermore, their paltry performance with runners in scoring position (59 wRC+; tied for last) will eventually improve at some point when positive regression kicks in.
The main question, though, is if this current group can handle that turnaround themselves, or if the Royals will need multiple reinforcements from outside the organization to make that positive swing happen.
With the pitching a bit thinner, the Royals need their bats more than ever if they want to remain in the Wild Card race.
Will the Royals Be Sellers or Buyers by the Trade Deadline?
The Royals’ recent decline this past week and the injury to Ragans have some Royals fans wondering: Should the Royals be “sellers” at the Trade Deadline (like 2023) instead of buyers (which they were last year)?
I believe the Royals will do both, regardless of how the rest of the season unfolds.
First off, even with this bad stretch and string of injuries, I don’t think JJ Picollo “blows up” this team by any means.
I know some have mentioned Carlos Estevez as a possible trade candidate who may be dealt at the Deadline due to the typical high value of closers. However, the Royals were able to sign him on a free-agent deal this offseason. That is not typical in Kansas City, as the market and climate of the Royals organization aren’t always attractive to high-profile free agents.
If the Royals trade him this year, it could erode goodwill with other free agents in the future. That will make the “team-building” process even more difficult next year and beyond and could limit the long-term future of Bobby Witt Jr., despite the extension he signed last offseason (he can opt out after 2028, and the Royals may need to trade him before then to get some value).
The Royals need to continue their upward progression, not “restart” another rebuilding process.
That said, I also think the Royals will take advantage of opportunities, even if it may result in some tough decisions with current established players.
A possibility could be Lugo, who can be a free agent next offseason. If Lugo foresees that he could make more money on a bigger deal, the Royals may trade him so they can get something in return (and not just lose him for nothing).
That said, I don’t see the Royals trading Lugo for solely prospects. I see them perhaps trading Lugo for a bat, whether it’s someone established or a highly-touted prospect buried in Triple-A who may not be getting an opportunity with their current club.
Trading Lugo would be an opportunity where the Royals would be trading from an area of strength for an area of need, and not just in the short term. The Royals need to add more high-profile bats, and they have demonstrated they can develop starting pitching, as evidenced by the success of Bubic and Cameron this season. It makes sense for them to stomach a loss from their pitching department to get an impact hitter or two.
Kansas City could also adopt a similar approach with Lorenzen, although the package likely wouldn’t be as substantial as what Lugo could command.
The Royals wouldn’t be “selling” by trading Lugo, Lorenzen, or another pitcher from their ranks. Instead, they would be “buying with surplus capital”, which is what innovative organizations, especially small-market ones, do to stay competitive in both the short and long term.
Regardless, they have to be judicious in the deals they make and who they trade away.
A bad trade or two could bury the momentum from last year’s playoff run. Furthermore, it could hinder the Royals’ ability to return to the postseason for years to come. That has been the case with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have failed to capitalize on their NLCS appearances back in 2023 due to some questionable moves in the past two seasons.
Photo Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
Losing Ragans is a minor problem. Kyle Wright and Lorenzen can pick up the slack.
I would trade Lugo for a solid bat, if there is a supply of such. Otherwise, we need to hold it together until rosters expand. I would bring up every hot bat from Omaha.
I am a bit on wait and see with Wright. I think there’s a lot of potential there but the Royals seem to be moving slow and cautiously with him. Even if he does come up, I think he will be on an innings limit. It wouldn’t surprise me if they perhaps do something with him this year like Bubic last year (and then move him back into rotation in ’26). They still have one more year of control of him for next year.
I kind of agree on the bat for Lugo. Think that’s going to give you the most accomplished one and free agency just hasn’t been kind to the Royals when it comes to FA bats. I also don’t mind bringing up hot bats either. Would rather see MJ back up and Devanney right now over Rave and Canha.
Well, even if he comes back after two weeks, he will be on a short leash. So, losing Ragans as a 7 inning starter will put more strain on the bullpen. But being 7 deep on guys that can give you five strong innings allows you some flexibility. With Ravens and Wright on a leash, you might as them split a game and save our bullpen some wear. Lorenzen offers the same change of pace.
Lugo screwed himself up asking for an extension in such a manner. While quite good, he is not elite. Trading him to a contender in need of pitching for a solid bat (.260+ BA & .310 OBP with some power) that may be under club control for 2 or 3 years would be great. Another option is to bring up one of the two Omaha catchers to bolster the offense.
Another option would be to look at promising offense prospects who may have not been put/kept in the system. Sign them, put them in AA, if they thrive promote them until they fail. It is a bandaid as their development might have stalled. And that might affect their ability to adjust once teams have some tape and data on them. But it’s a low risk/high upside play.
IMPO, M.J. will come back. He needs to be unstressed by expectations. Rave may be a bit of a plodder, But He has improved his game beyond expectations. A smart and capable (not gifted) player is useful to a manager as they might better understand situational strategy. Rave seems to fit that. Ghana is fighting Father Time and even Edgar Martinez lost that fight.
BTW, have you noticed that ’25 Drew Waters is a different hitter than last year. Let’s hope it’s a process. He could be quite a hitting machine.
I think that’s not a bad strategy. As you said, even if Ragans comes back, he will need to be on a pitch/innings limit. Wright could help with that endeavor and they could kill two birds with one stone.
I like Lugo a lot but I do think he’s going to opt out and I’m not sure you give him the extension that you gave Wacha last offseason. If that’s the case, you have to trade him while you can and plenty of teams will appreciate his pedigree and durability. I’m hoping that the Royals can get a bat of note in exchange, hopefully one more proven.
I agree about MJ. I think him returning with lower expectations will help. I agree Rave has surpassed expectations and there’s value in that. He also is a good defender and baserunner and that can’t be downplayed.
I have seen it and been impressed by his adjustment. He’s doing enough to keep himself in the lineup and get on base, something he struggled with. He has cut down his swing and focusing more on putting the ball in play and less about hitting the home run. I think he’s due for a power surge now that he’s gotten much more comfortable at the plate.
[…] have been .500 since they were 15-15 on April 29th. Furthermore, they will need more hitting to make up for the loss of Cole Ragans, who went on the IL (retroactive to June 8th) due to a rotator cuff […]