The weekend started pretty poorly for the Royals as they lost two of three to the last-place White Sox. However, on Sunday, the Royals avoided the sweep, beating Chicago 7-5 (though relievers Trevor Richards and Carlos Estevez gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth).
Kansas City is 34-32 and is 8.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. The Royals have an off day on Monday before they begin a big homestand against the Yankees and Athletics, respectively.
The Bronx Bombers will be a tough test, as they are in first place in the AL East with a record of 39-24 and have a +99 run differential. That is vastly better than the Royals, who have a -9 run differential. The Yankees have also benefited from the return of Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the lineup after a lengthy stay on the IL earlier this year (though Chisholm hasn’t done the Yanks any favors in the field, as evidenced on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN).
I plan to discuss some things before the Yankees series begins on Tuesday (I will be attending the Tuesday and Thursday games). However, that’s a post for tomorrow. In this post, I am going to review the “three-star” standouts from this weekend’s series on the South Side, which includes two hitters and one starting pitcher.
First Star: Michael Lorenzen (6 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K)
After two rough starts in a row, many Royals fans were questioning Lorenzen’s place in the rotation, especially with his ERA sitting at 5.12 and WHIP at 1.46 going into Sunday’s start.
Despite giving up a two-run home run in the first inning to Miguel Vargas, Lorenzen was nails against the White Sox in the series finale. He struck out seven, allowed only two walks, two runs, and one hit, and collected a quality start in his six-inning effort.
When it comes to the Statcast and Stuff metrics via TJ Stats, Lorenzen’s pitch arsenal was quite effective against the White Sox lineup. The 33-year-old righty flooded the strike zone with a 53.3% zone rate and also generated a solid whiff rate (28.6%) while minimizing hard contact (.172 xwOBACON).
Lorenzen leaned heavily on the changeup (25.7% usage) and slider (20.7%) on Sunday. The primary usage of those pitches proved to be an effective strategy. He generated whiff rates of 46.2% and 33.3% on the changeup and slider, as well as xwOBACON marks of 0.094 and 0.038, respectively.
The heavy usage of his breaking and offspeed offerings also helped enhance the effectiveness of his four-seamer, even though it didn’t possess great stuff (92 TJ Stuff+). His four-seamer produced a 42.9% whiff rate, the second-best whiff rate of any of the seven pitches he threw on Sunday.
Much has been made about Lorenzen’s decline this year from a season ago (especially when he was in Kansas City after the Trade Deadline). However, as I discussed in my post yesterday, Lorenzen’s Statcast and Stuff metrics haven’t been significantly different from 2024, as demonstrated in the TJ Stats comparison below.
Lorenzen’s xwOBACON is a little higher this year, but everything else has improved.
His TJ Stuff+ is two points higher, his zone rate is 3.6% better, his chase rate is up 3.8%, and his whiff is up by 0.3%. The most significant difference this year is that he’s dropped his sinker from a 21.3% usage to a 12.5% usage, which makes sense since the pitch has a 94 TJ Stuff+ and an xwOBACON of .472 this year.
Lorenzen’s ERA is now 4.94, and his WHIP is 1.38. Those are good enough numbers for a five starter, and I could see this positive start help him string together outings that should continue to lower those ERA and WHIP marks.
Second Star: Maikel Garcia (4 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K)
I keep expecting Garcia to regress at some point, much like he did last season.
After hitting .305 with a .773 OPS in May last year, he ended up producing a .142 average and .398 OPS in June. That slump dug Garcia into a huge hole that he was never able to climb out of later in the summer (.231 average and .613 OPS in 626 plate appearances).
So far in June this year, Garcia is hitting .280 with a .957 OPS in 28 plate appearances. He has also hit two home runs this month and has collected seven total for the season, which matches his home run total from 2024.
The 25-year-old Venezuelan infielder has a .370 wOBA, which is 36 points higher than his expected wOBA (xwOBA). However, Garcia has seen improvements in his sweet-spot percentage, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate this year, which makes this year at the plate feel sustainable.
Since Cags was called up, manager Matt Quatraro has slotted Garcia in the three-hole, and it has seemed to work out well for him and the Royals.
In 28 plate appearances in that spot in the batting order, Garcia has a slash of .280/.357/.600 with a .957 OPS. He also has come through in big spots with runners on base, as he hit a two-out RBI single in the top of the seventh that followed up a Jonathan India double that broke the 2-2 tie.
The expectation going into 2025 was that Garcia could be good enough at the bottom of the lineup to merit playing every day due to his glove and baserunning ability.
Instead, Garcia has been the Royals’ best contact hitter who has become an essential part of this lineup (hence his No. 3 spot in the batting order, which won’t be relinquished anytime soon).
Third Star: Jac Caglianone (5 H, 1 2B, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 BB, 1 K)
After starting 2-for-21 in his first five games of his MLB career, Cags broke out in a big way on Sunday, going four-for-four with a double in the Royals’ two-run win.
Many Royals fans have fixated on Cags not elevating the ball and his inability to get hits in his first six games at the MLB level (one Royals fan on Twitter compared him to Michael Massey, which is laughable). However, he has been hitting the ball incredibly and consistently hard, and the rest of his Statcast metrics (other than wOBA) look pretty impressive, as demonstrated by his TJ Stats summary card.
According to TJ Stats, he has a .102 wOBA, but a 11.8% barrel rate, a 52.9% hard-hit rate, a 110.4 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity (EV), and a 113.9 MPH Maximum EV. He is whiffing a lot, as evidenced by a 29.4% whiff rate and 72% Z-Contact%. However, as a power hitter, the Royals can live with that as long as the power remains elite.
This strong kind of performance should help Cags transition well not only to the Yankees series (a key one for this Royals team and their playoff aspirations), but also to his home debut at Kauffman Stadium. The rookie slugger seems pumped and ready to make his first appearances in front of the Royals faithful.
Not only are Kansas City sports fans excited for Tuesday, but Cags himself is psyched and ready.
Safe to say, Tuesday at Kauffman Stadium will be a fun environment for Cags’ K debut and the Royals-Yankees ALDS rematch (Kansas City lost both ALDS games at home last year). Let’s hope for a sellout (or near sellout) environment at the Truman Sports Complex.
Underdog Fantasy Champions Picks Review
I have been sharing my AL Central Underdog Champions fantasy picks on Twitter recently, and for every Three Stars, I will review one set of picks from the week that particularly stood out.
In my picks today, I hit three of four of my AL Central selections, which netted me some money back in the “flex” format (where you can miss up to one).
We know what Cags did today on the South Side of Chicago. However, Joe Ryan struck out six Blue Jays batters and Spencer Torkelson collected two hits for the Tigers in their 4-0 win over the Cubs, which included a double.
The only pick that didn’t work out was Steven Kwan, who only collected a single against Houston.
Still, three of four isn’t bad (it netted me a 2-1 return).
Follow me here or on Twitter for more of my Underdog Fantasy picks and use the code KOBRIEN44 when you sign up to get a bonus on your account. Underdog Fantasy is available not just in Kansas but is also legal in Missouri (which isn’t the case for other DFS or sportsbooks just yet).
Graphic Credit: Kevin O’Brien and Jared Perkins/Crown Talk Podcast
[…] Royals avoided the sweep against the White Sox in Chicago this weekend and now have an off day on Monday before they begin a six-game homestand. This stretch […]