The Royals lost a brutal game on Friday night against the Chicago White Sox in front of a sold-out crowd at the Rate Field that was celebrating Mexican Heritage Night.
The Royals and White Sox were tied at two going into the 8th inning. Furthermore, Kansas City looked to be primed to take the lead with Jonathan India at second base and Bobby Witt Jr. at first with nobody out. However, manager Matt Quatraro called for Maikel Garcia to bunt, which resulted in a forceout at third. Vinnie Pasquantino grounded out into a fielder’s choice, and Salvador Perez popped out to end the inning and the threat.
In the bottom of the 8th, the White Sox took advantage of Jonathan Bowlan‘s spotty command and Taylor Clarke‘s questionable decision-making and scored five runs, which essentially put the game out of reach. Here’s a small snippet of how bad things went for the Royals during that disaster of an inning.
As a result, the Win Probability chart went from slightly in favor of the Royals to a wrapped-up White Sox win quickly, much to Kansas City fans’ chagrin.
The White Sox are 21-43, which is good enough for last place in the AL Central. However, their xW-L record is 26-38, which is five wins better than their actual record. They won two of four against the Detroit Tigers in their most recent series. Lastly, the team has looked significantly better since the return of Mike Tauchman from the injured list and the demotion of Andrew Vaughn to Triple-A Charlotte.
This isn’t the 2024 White Sox, nor is it the group that blew a game in the ninth inning due to Chase Meidroth being unable to play a routine flyball.
Nonetheless, the Royals are 12 games better than the White Sox in the Central, even after the loss tonight. Kansas City is a better team on paper.
And yet, that wasn’t the case on Friday.
The White Sox rode the home crowd energy to a victory that the Royals let slip through their fingers due to a variety of reasons that have been too familiar this year. Without a doubt, it was probably the most brutal loss of the season, and possibly their most brutal since the Giants series last September, when they were swept at Kauffman Stadium (I attended the Saturday game, which the Royals lost 9-0).
Which makes one wonder as a Royals fan: Do we need to adjust the expectations of what this club is capable of for the remainder of the 2025 season?
The Royals’ Run Differential Is Worrisome
On June 7th last season, at the 64-game mark, the Royals were 38-26, good for second in the AL Central division. While they were three games behind the first-place Guardians, they had a run differential of +73, which was only six behind Cleveland and the fourth-best mark in the American League. Based on run differential, their xW-L record was 40-24, which was one win better than the Guardians’ xW-L.
It’s been a different story this season for the Royals.
At the 64-game mark this season, the Royals are 33-31, good for fourth in the Central Division. Their run differential is -8, and their xW-L record is 31-33 (two wins better than the third-place Guardians). Kansas City has only allowed 226 runs, the second-best mark in the American League. However, they have only scored 218, which is the lowest mark in the American League.
Last year, the Royals scored 316 runs at the 64-game mark, nearly 100 runs more than their run total this year after the same games-played benchmark. They allowed 243 runs, but that was still the fifth-best mark in the American League. The offense’s performance last year took some pressure off the pitching, allowing them to have “off nights.”
That hasn’t been the case this year, as so much pressure night in and night out has been on the rotation and bullpen to carry this Royals team to victory. While it had led to some decent success (they are two game over .500 after all), it seems like some pitching regression has begun to happen, especially with so many key arms on the IL (Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey) and some other pitchers just returning off the IL (Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo) with considerable shakiness.
Lugo’s performance tonight against the White Sox was a key example of him still battling rust with his command and stuff.
Despite all the ups and downs last year, the Royals could point to their run differential as proof that the team was for real.
Unfortunately, the negative run differential for this year’s group suggests a flawed team that may be closer to finishing .500 than securing one of the Wild Card spots in the American League.
Questions About the Pitching Staff
The pitching staff has been a strength this year, and that shouldn’t be forgotten, even after Friday night’s debacle. As of Friday, according to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 6th in pitching fWAR (8.4), 4th in ERA (3.23), and 9th in FIP (3.70).
That said, the regression of some key arms and injuries to the bullpen has been a concern and could result in a decline in pitching performance, which could affect the Royals’ overall record.
Three pitchers who have been concerning recently are Lugo, Ragans, and Michael Lorenzen, three starters who had solid years in Kansas City in 2024 and were expected to lead the rotation in 2025.
I used TJ Stats’ comparison tool to compare pitchers and their performances from the past two years in various categories, including Stuff and Pitch Movement. The comparison would provide a glimpse into why each pitcher was struggling to replicate what they did a season ago.
Here’s a look at Lugo, who pitched tonight and has seen his ERA rise from 3.00 last year to 3.46 this season.
For Lugo, he’s throwing more strikes, as his zone rate is 3.7% higher than a year ago. However, his chase rate is 6.3% lower, his whiff rate is 3.9% lower, and his xwOBACON is 72 points higher. That explains why Lugo’s been less dominant, especially in his most recent two starts. When the command is off, he fails to generate strikeouts and gets walloped.
Ragans and Lorenzen have had the bigger declines this season at the surface level.
The former Cy Young finalist (he finished fourth last year) has a 5.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 10 starts and 48.2 IP this season. Thus, many Royals fans are frustrated with Ragans, thinking that he may be “washed up” after a step back this season in terms of results.
However, his K rate is 36.4% this year, 7.1% higher than a season ago. His K-BB% is 28.7%, which is 8.2 percentage points higher than the league average. Lastly, his Statcast and TJ Stuff data not only remain impressive but have shown growth from a season ago.
Everything has been better for Ragans, including control, with his zone percentage being four percent higher than his 2024 rate. His xwOBACON is also practically the same as last year, thus contradicting the notion that he’s getting more “batted around” this season.
Ragans is indeed working through some of his injury issues, but the profile is there for him to bounce back and be a solid, if not elite, starting pitcher again. Honing his command and efficiency will be key in his next couple of starts. In terms of the latter, his foul ball strike percentage is 19.4%, which is higher than last year, but only 0.4% higher than his career average, according to Pitcher List. So, the fouls aren’t as big a deal as I believe some are making them out to be.
Lessening that percentage, theoretically, should help him reduce his pitch counts. Conversely, foul balls aren’t a predictable metric, anyway, according to Fangraphs.
Lorenzen also exhibits the same profile as Ragans in terms of there being little difference between his TJ Stuff and Statcast metrics this year and last.
Lorenzen’s TJ Stuff is up two points, his zone rate is up 3.4%, and his chase rate is up 4.0%. He has observed some regression in whiff by 0.3%, and a more substantial increase in xwOBACON, as it is 0.401 this year, a 46-point increase from 2024.
Thus, Royals fans should look to not just those metrics above, but also Lorenzen’s 4.47 xERA and 4.36 xFIP as signs of better days ahead.
In terms of the bullpen, Quatraro has had to thrust some unknown pitchers into high-leverage roles. Steven Cruz has handled the role well, as he has a 1.61 ERA in 22.1 IP. Conversely, Bowlan, who pitched tonight, has had mixed results.
Against the White Sox on Friday, Bowlan got the Royals out of the seventh but was disastrous in the eighth. He ended up giving up five runs (three earned) on two hits and four walks in 1.1 IP. The outing boosted his ERA up to 4.09 and WHIP to 1.36 in 11 innings pitched.
Despite his control and hard-hit problems, he still flashed impressive stuff and generated a decent number of whiffs in his 38-pitch outing against Chicago.
With Erceg and Harvey on the shelf, the Royals need relievers like Bowlan and other less-proven relievers to continue to step up in high-leverage situations. The results have been mixed recently, but this bullpen does rank 5th in ERA, as of Friday.
Nights like this are rough, but the Royals are building valuable bullpen depth. That should help in the long run, both this season and beyond, even when Erceg and Harvey return.
What Does the Offense Need Right Now?
It was another 0-fer night for Jac Caglianone, as he went 0-for-4 with one strikeout. It was another night of rough batted-ball luck for Cags. He not only had two batted balls over 105 MPH, but all three of his batted balls also had xBA marks over .600.
For the season, Cags is hitting .059 with a .177 OPS in 17 plate appearances. It’s tough as a Royals fan to see those paltry numbers, especially when Kyle Teel of the White Sox drew a walk and got a base hit in his first MLB game against the Royals on Friday night.
Despite his rough start, I feel confident in Cags’ outlook as a Royal.
He will likely hit on the lower end in terms of batting average (possibly in the .220-.240 range), but I think the power will eventually catch up. He elevated the ball a little bit more tonight, which was an encouraging sign since he didn’t do that all that much in the Cardinals series.
His radial chart via Savant indicates that he should have more base hits based on his combination of exit velocity and launch angle (typically, dots in those green areas tend to result in hits).
Still, this offense needs at least two more hitters who can be depended on in the lineup.
Salvy had a brutal 0-for-4 night, and it’s looking more and more like he may be entering the twilight years of his career on the offensive end (he threw out a runner tonight at least). He’s hitting .232 with a .618 OPS, and he really should be in the 6th or 7th hole in the lineup. The days of him being a dependable run producer may be coming to an end, if it’s not over already.
To make that move, the Royals not only need Cags to improve, but also add another hitter to push Salvy further down in the batting order.
Is that hitter within the Royals system?
Could that hitter be MJ Melendez, who could be MLB-ready again at the end of June?
Melendez is hitting .230 with a .708 OPS in Omaha and has seven home runs and 10 stolen bases in 152 at-bats with the Storm Chasers. If this trend continues, he could be a power-hitting option who could take Mark Canha‘s spot and split time in the outfield with Nick Loftin or Drew Waters.
Or do the Royals look outside the organization for a couple of bats?
Do they pull the trigger on a trade with the Angels, who are free-falling a bit, or perhaps the Diamondbacks, who are reeling after losing Corbin Burnes to Tommy John surgery?
Jorge Soler (LAA), Taylor Ward (LAA), Pavin Smith (ARI), or Eugenio Suarez (ARI) could be a much-needed boost to this Royals lineup and help with their run-scoring and differential woes this year.
Final Thoughts On Where The Royals Are At
The Kansas City Royals this season are a flawed team. Their minus run differential demonstrates that, and the fact that they are two wins above .500 is a minor miracle when considering all the factors at play here.
The Royals got ZERO offense from Melendez or Hunter Renfroe, who had spurts last year where they carried the offense at different times of the season (though they were far from consistent). Harvey has spent more time on the IL than expected, and Erceg has also gone to the IL, which has put even more pressure on Carlos Estevez to close out games. Lastly, Ragans and Lugo have dealt with nagging injury issues, which have prevented them both from being their “Cy-Young caliber” selves.
I think there’s potential for the Royals to be a playoff team, much like they were last year.
It’s possible to see the Royals finishing the year much stronger than they did last season, perhaps pulling off something similar to what the 2024 Detroit Tigers did. They aren’t that far away, though acquiring the necessary pieces may be more expensive than initially imagined.
And yet, this team could also fade and become a mediocre team that eventually falls out of the postseason race, much like Seattle and Minnesota did last year. If that’s the case, the Royals need to be thinking creatively at the Trade Deadline.
Yes, they should look to improve, but with a long-term lens beyond 2025. That doesn’t just mean acquiring “prospects” (though that could be helpful). Instead, it’s long-term pieces that could be solutions for the Royals in 2026 and beyond.
Those could be hitters, but they also could be pitchers. If it’s the latter, the Royals may need to explore trading someone like Lugo, Kris Bubic, or Noah Cameron to maximize the return.
Seeing those names may make some Royals fans’ stomachs churn, especially since those three have been so crucial to the Royals’ success in the past two years (especially Bubic and Lugo).
However, that’s the plight of the small market team.
A club must always think one step ahead and make decisions that have the most significant impact, even if it may be unpopular with the fan base.
Or else you end up being like the White Sox last year or the Rockies this season.
That is something Royals fans don’t want to go through again. That 2023 “evaluation” season was enough.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
[…] year from a season ago (especially when he was in Kansas City after the Trade Deadline). However, as I discussed in my post yesterday, Lorenzen’s Statcast and Stuff metrics haven’t been […]