Bigger things are going on in the world of the Kansas City Royals right now. After all, the call-up of Jac Caglianone has Royals fans more excited than ever, with radio hosts hitting I-70 in the evening (after 5 p.m. commuter traffic died down, of course).
Still, before the series with the Cardinals starts this evening at Busch Stadium in St. Louis (what a way to finish the I-70 Series this year), I wanted to recap our three-star award winners from this past series. Unsurprisingly, all the award winners were pitchers in this edition.
Furthermore, Jared and I released our latest episode of Crown Talk, which can be found in the embedded video below. Dalton from “Royals Data Dugout” joined us on the pod, and it was great for him to share his perspective on the past week of Royals baseball.
Subscribe to Crown Talk on YouTube and Spotify. Thank you for your support of the podcast. We’re now moving on to our three-star award winners.
First Star: Michael Wacha (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K)
The Royals had their work cut out for them on Saturday as they faced off against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers. Kansas City had lost to Detroit the previous night, and it seemed like the Royals were in jeopardy of going into a 2-0 series hole against the reigning AL Cy Young winner.
Thankfully for the Royals and over 35,000 in attendance at Kauffman, Wacha shoved against the Tigers in seven innings of work.
Wacha didn’t generate a ton of whiffs, as evidenced by his 19.6% whiff rate. However, he flooded the zone (52.5% zone rate), generated a ton of chase (36.2% chase rate), and induced a lot of weak contact from Tigers hitters (0.225 xwOBACON).
The TJ Stuff+ metrics didn’t impress at the surface level (96 overall; only two pitches with marks over 100). That said, Wacha’s impeccable command and mix (five pitches thrown over 10% of the time) kept Detroit off balance and guessing all afternoon.
For the season, Wacha has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 12 starts and 68.2 innings pitched. He may not have generated as much buzz in the preseason as Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, who both finished in the Top 5 in the AL Cy Young race a season ago. However, with Lugo and Ragans having seen time on the IL, Wacha has stepped up and been the Royals’ second-best starter in their absence (and arguably all season long).
Second Star: Kris Bubic (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K)
I said Wacha has been the Royals’ second-best starter over that stretch (and this season) because Bubic has been an “ace” of the rotation, and it’s not even close.
In 12 starts and 75.1 innings pitched, Bubic has a 1.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He has a 26.9% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate, which has resulted in a 2.79 xERA, the second-best on the team behind only Ragans (2.25 xERA).
Even though he received the loss on Sunday afternoon, the “Croatian Sensation” was magnificent, striking out nine Tigers hitters and only allowing four hits in seven innings of work.
Bubic gave up some hard contact (.396 xwOBACON), especially on the slider (.865 xwOBACON). However, he had a strong zone rate (52.5%) as well as excellent chase (40.4%), and whiff (33.3%) rates. He produced a 104 TJ Stuff+ overall, which demonstrates that he’s able to generate premium movement on his arsenal despite sporting average velocity (especially on his fastball offerings).
Bubic has been so good this season that he’s getting massive buzz from baseball content people outside of the Royals bubble. Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats ranked him as No. 1 in AL Cy Young rankings, ahead of Skubal, Boston’s Garrett Crochet, Houston’s Hunter Brown, and Texas’s Nathan Eovaldi.
Will Bubic be able to maintain this pace? He certainly doesn’t have the track record of arms like Skubal or even Eovaldi. That said, the same could be said of Lugo last year, and he finished second in the Cy Young race and pitched over 200 innings in 2024.
Brian Sweeney and the Royals’ pitching coaches certainly know what to do with starters who used to be relievers.
Third Star: Carlos Estevez (1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K)
The Royals’ bullpen seemed to be in a bit of trouble after news broke that Lucas Erceg was going to the IL due to a lower back injury.
A year ago, losing such a key reliever would have been devastating. This year, however, Kansas City has been able to handle such absences in the bullpen (they have been without Hunter Harvey for most of the year, and they haven’t missed a beat).
A big reason for that is the performance of Estevez in the ninth this season.
In 24 appearances and 25.1 IP, the 32-year-old righty has a 1.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 16 saves. He doesn’t boast a high strikeout rate (22.1%), but he limits the hard contact (63rd percentile) and barrels (65th percentile). Even though his xERA is a bit less impressive at 3.45, the overall results from Estevez have been well worth the contract that JJ Picollo and the Royals handed to him this offseason.
When examining his advanced metrics via TJ Stats, the chase and whiff rates have been slightly lower than expected for Estevez. However, his stuff remains pretty solid on all three of his offerings this season (four-seamer, slider, and changeup).
Despite a 12.5% K-BB%, he has a zone rate of 55.1% and an overall TJ Stuff+ of over 103. His slider has been his best offering with a 108 TJ Stuff+ and 61.1% zone rate. Unfortunately, it does leave a little to be desired in terms of chase (16.3%), whiff (13.3%), and its hittability (.378 xwOBACON).
Still, he only throws it 32.9%, making it a nice change of pace from his four-seamer, which he throws 54% of the time. When he sequences both offerings in similar zones, he can make hitters look foolish.
Notice in the clip compilation how he blows away Cleveland’s Kyle Manzardo on a four seamer and how he gets Minnesota’s Jose Miranda to badly whiff on a slider thrown in the same area of the strike zone (down and glove-side).
Estevez may not get saves or even outs in the prettiest ways. He’s not like Royals reliever strikeout artists such as Wade Davis, Greg Holland, or even Kelvin Herrera.
However, even though his style is different, it’s still been effective. That’s what matters the most for the Royals: That Estevez gets the save in the ninth.
Royals Fan Guide Road Trip Spots: St. Louis and Busch Stadium
I have only been to St. Louis and Busch Stadium a couple of times (which is sad since I have lived in Kansas City for almost 12 years now). That said, I have found the experience at Busch Stadium and St. Louis in general to be an enjoyable one. As much as Kansas City folks dislike their eastern Missouri neighbors, I have often enjoyed my trips to St. Louis, even if I’m not the biggest Cardinals fan (I dislike the Yankees, Dodgers, and Braves more).
Here are five places that you should hit up if you’re going to any of the Royals-Cardinals games in St. Louis over the next few days.
- Budweiser Brewery Experience (1200 Lynch St, St. Louis, MO 63118): We love our craft breweries in Kansas City (Boulevard, Crane, Torn Label, just to name a few). However, even though Budweiser is a “macro” beer, the tour is one rich with history. So much of the old brewery is preserved, making you feel as though you’ve stepped back in time to the late 19th and early 20th centuries. If you’re looking for a history lesson in St. Louis with a beer twist, this tour is a great opportunity.
- Bogart’s Smokehouse (1627 S 9th St, St. Louis, MO 63104): I haven’t had enough St. Louis BBQ to know if it’s better than Kansas City BBQ. However, Bogart’s barbecue is an excellent representation of what the St. Louis area has to offer. Great smoked meat (the burnt ends were incredible), great sides, and served in a cool spot in the historic Soulard. If it’s crowded, there’s an International Tap House right down the street that will let you bring in your BBQ order.
- Pharaoh’s Donuts (202 N 9th St, St. Louis, MO 63101): I am not going to lie. I stumbled on Pharaoh’s by accident, not exactly knowing what to expect. It wasn’t well-marked, and the space (at the time) appeared to need a remodel. Of course, places like this tend to have the best food (or worst food; there’s no in-between). The yeast donuts (especially long johns) here were incredible, but my friend who had a cake donut also remarked how excellent those were, too. If you’re looking for a morning donut fix, check this place out, although they sell out quickly.
- Krueger’s Bar (7347 Forsyth Blvd, University City, MO 63105): It’s a bit out of the way from Busch Stadium (it’s an 11-minute drive to be specific). However, if you’re looking for a Cheers-esque bar near Washington University where the locals all know each other’s names but aren’t jerks to visitors, then this is the place. Krueger’s reminds me a lot of Breit’s here in KCK, as it has an old vibe, decent drink prices, and some great bar food. It’s not exactly a “young” spot, but if you’re a married 30-something like me, this place will feel like home.
- Ballpark Village (601 Clark Ave, St. Louis, MO 63102): Does it feel a little synthetic and commercial? Yeah. Is it pretty much a Baseball/Cardinals-themed Power and Light? Most definitely. But there’s something still endearing to hitting up the Ballpark Village hours before a game with so many people decked out in Cardinals colors and gear. With the Royals in town, there will be plenty of Kansas City denizens visiting the Village in Royal blue, which should hopefully drown out the sea of red a bit. It’s not the cheapest attraction, but it’s a good place to meet with Royals fans before the first pitch. If you’re looking for an All-Inclusive ticket (food and alcohol included) and don’t mind being outside the ballpark, check out the Cardinals Nation Hoffman Brothers Rooftop, which is in the Village and will be about 80 bucks per ticket for the Royals series.
Graphic Credit: Kevin O’Brien and Jared Perkins/Crown Talk Podcast
It is a long stated truth that winning teams are pitching first. Wacha is a clear example. Talent dilution (I’m in my late 60’s) in the league has been such that he is a solid starter.in our rotation, he is the third or fourth best arm. But league wide, he is a solid third, and in some places second.Ragans allows us to place Lugo and Sachs against starters weaker than them. Throw the Bubic season and a possible Wright return, and Lorenzen becomes a bullpen piece. In theory, Ragans, Bubic, Lugo and Sachs can give you a quality start on every start. How many teams can say that? And you still have. Lorenzen, the new guy (who has a very low ERA so far) from Omaha and Kyle Wright in the wings… The Royals can come out and throw a quality starter daily. This places pressure on hitters to go out and make things happen, above and beyond their capabilities. Wait until the rosters expand to see the deployment of pitching as a strategic weapon.
Cags is not likely the answer, but brings in a random factor every time he steps to the plate. No pitcher wants to see his pitch leave the plate at 100+ mph on a 400+ foot HR trajectory, and will approach him gingerly. As long as we have him starting, I would hit him fourth, and squeeze him between, either Bobby Whit or Maikel Garcia and Pasquatch at 5th. They will have to pitch at someone. If Maikel hits 3rd, Bobby can lead off. Assuming India handles the bat well, he can be 2. Then Garcia, Cags and Vinnie, followed by Waters/Rave, Salvy with Massey and Ysbel closing the order. Not terrifying to most starters, but a prickly proposition nonetheless. We should be scoring 4+ runs per game, against bottom of the rotation opponents, with such an order and a malicious approach at the plate. In this era of pich-counts and fragile starters, we can turn things around offensively when facing the bottom of most rotations.
And I have yet to touch on aggressive first to third running as a psychological weapon against weak pitchers in one out situations… The Royals could be quite explosive offensively and roar into the lead in August and September
We still need a professional hitter in the mold of Edgar Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Olerud, etc. A guy who hits .260+, with some database power and either hits to move the runner or has an 8+ pitch at bat and can hit to the opposite field at will
Once they figure out what they have, and how to use it, we should start seeing 3 to five win streaks regularly with few consecutive losses. Why? Because we have seven or eight real MLB pitchers while they have three or four.
In August, we can extend to a 6 man rotation without a drop off in quality starts. Think about that. When September rolls around, we should not have tired arms anywhere.
I agree with you that Salvy should be batting lower and I like the idea of Garcia-Cags-Vinnie in the 3-4-5. I would also be open to having Vinnie-Cags-Waters in 4-6. I think the pitching has the depth to succeed and surge to the postseason, especially once Erceg and Harvey return and Kyle Wright joins, who’s been looking good in Omaha.
The reality is that we do need that professional hitter. A veteran presence in the lineup, especially one that is battle-tested, really could help this team fully realize their potential. A Taylor Ward seems like that guy.
[…] In last week’s Three Stars, I discussed things to do in St. Louis when the Royals visited the Cardinals at Busch Stadium. In this edition, I’ve decided to dedicate an entire post to that series, with a focus on Chicago and what to do if you’re visiting The Rate Field for the White Sox series. […]