Jac Caglianone Doesn’t Need to Be a Royals Savior (Just Be Good Enough)

On Sunday night, the Royals made national headlines with ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting that Kansas City would be calling up their No. 1 prospect, Jac Caglianone, to the Major Leagues.

On Monday morning, the Royals made the news official, not only calling up Caglianone but optioning outfielder Dairon Blanco to Omaha to make room on the roster. Because the Royals’ roster was at 39 before the Cags’ move, there was no need for the Royals to designate a player for assignment.

Excitement is high among Royals fans right now, which is encouraging after a weekend series against the first-place Tigers, where they scored only one run combined on Saturday and Sunday. They did split those two games, but they should’ve won both, especially with how well Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic pitched on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

While the Royals’ pitching staff has continued to be stellar, the Kansas City offense has failed to perform. After 60 games, they rank not only last in home runs, but also second-to-last in ISO (isolated slugging) and 27th in hitter fWAR, according to Fangraphs.

To his credit, Royals GM JJ Picollo hasn’t been sitting on his hands in response to these hitting struggles.

In the past two weeks, they released Hunter Renfroe, optioned Cavan Biggio to Omaha, and called up outfielder John Rave from the Storm Chasers. However, Kansas City needed more punch in the lineup, especially in the middle of the batting order.

When looking at Cags’ highlights this year (in both Omaha and Northwest Arkansas), it’s apparent that he could provide that power upside that the Royals’ lineup has desperately been missing in 2025.

Thus, what should Royals fans expect from Cags, who will make his debut at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Tuesday night?

Here are three thoughts that I have about Cags’ promotion and what Royals fans should be paying attention to when it comes to the Royals’ 2024 first-round pick’s debut.

Cags’ Power Is Legitimate and MLB-Ready

There’s no question that Cags has earned this promotion based on his performance this year in Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha.

In 50 games and 229 combined plate appearances with the Naturals and Storm Chasers, Cags put up a slash line of .322/.389/.593 with a .982 OPS and .427 wOBA. He also launched 15 home runs, scored 41 runs, and collected 56 RBI. For context, no one on the Royals has hit more than eight home runs this year (Vinnie Pasquantino has the most), and his slugging is 112 points higher than Bobby Witt Jr., who leads the team with a .481 mark.

It’s not just that Cags has put up excellent statistics in Double-A and Triple-A, but he’s also demonstrating excellent batted-ball and plate discipline metrics. Here’s a look at his impressive marks in Omaha (via his TJ Stats summary card), which features public Statcast data.

His exit velocity and hard-hit metrics are insane.

According to TJ Stats, he ranked in the top percentiles in wOBA, xwOBA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, 90th percentile exit velocity, and max exit velocity. While that sounds ridiculous at first glance, when one sees the balls he hits, it doesn’t seem all that farfetched (as demonstrated in this home run below in Salt Lake City).

Furthermore, the spray heatmap data for Cags from Omaha is pretty impressive.

He not only made consistent contact in pulling the ball to deep parts of the park, but he also sprayed the ball around impressively. His profile should transition well to Kauffman Stadium and its spacious dimensions (which is the ballpark used in this heatmap overlay).

What’s intriguing about Cags’ Statcast metrics is that a significant knock on him as a prospect, both in the Royals system and at the University of Florida, was his “free-swinging” approach. He did have a high swing rate in Omaha, as evidenced by his 55.8% swing rate. The data also confirmed that the plate approach in Northwest Arkansas, which can be seen in his TJ Stats card from Double-A (which has much more limited data available).

He swung 5.9% less in Northwest Arkansas. However, his whiff rate was 30.7% with the Naturals, which was 7.4% higher than his whiff rate in Omaha. Granted, Cags had fewer at-bats with the Storm Chasers (121 fewer, to be specific). That said, his improvement in contact ability (85.5% zone contact) demonstrates that Cags can make proper adjustments, even with the step up in better competition.

How Does Cags’ Profile Compare to Other Prospects Who Were Promoted Quickly?

What’s interesting is that many believe Cags could be exposed by Major League pitching. That has been especially hammered by some “experts” lately, especially since the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz, who was seen as a more polished hitter in the 2024 Draft, has gone through some minor regression in the Big Leagues.

In 108 plate appearances, Kurtz has a slash of .245/.315/.447 with a .762 OPS and .326 wOBA. He also had five home runs and 15 RBI before landing on the IL due to a hamstring injury.

Thus, I wanted to see how Kurtz performed this year in Triple-A, as well as Texas’s Alejandro Osuna, the latter a prospect who had only 184 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A this year before being promoted to the Rangers. Osuna has a slash of .267/.476/.267 with a .743 OPS and .370 wOBA in 21 plate appearances with the Rangers.

Here’s how they fared on a Statcast end this year in Triple-A, via TJ Stats.

Osuna is not necessarily a fair comparison to Cags. He was known more for his contact hitting in the Minors. That said, he didn’t barrel the ball in Triple-A Round Rock, and his average exit velocity, sweet-spot percentage, and exit velocity metrics were all paltry (though he did sport elite contact rates).

As for Kurtz, he demonstrated elite barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, and exit velocity rates in Las Vegas. However, his whiff rate was 7.7% higher and his Z-Contact rate was 6.7% lower than Cags’ marks in Triple-A.

Now, here’s how both Kurtz and Osuna have fared in their Statcast categories in limited samples with the Athletics and Rangers, respectively.

Kurtz is still hitting the ball at an elite rate, but the contact has been a different story. His whiff rate is up by 3.2%, and his Z-Contact% is down 5.5% from his time in Triple-A. Osuna has produced more of the same in terms of contact, with his whiff rate 2.5% down from his one in Triple-A and his Z-Contact% only down 4.7%.

Thus, there has been some regression here and there for both Kurtz and Osuna in their promotions. That said, they still essentially remained the same players in the Majors on a Statcast end.

Let’s look at one more player in the White Sox’s Tim Elko. The Chicago first baseman posted a .424 wOBA in Triple-A Charlotte but only had a .272 wOBA with the White Sox in 32 plate appearances before getting demoted back to the Knights.

Here’s a comparison of how his TJ Stats card looked in the Majors and Triple-A.

(Scroll right for MLB stats; left for Triple-A).

Elko had swing and chase issues in Triple-A, much like Cags. However, the 26-year-old was much more passive, as his 61.6% Z-Swing% was 16.9% lower than Cags’ mark, and his Z-Contact% was 3.5% lower than Cags as well. Thus, it’s not surprising that Elko had more strikeouts and fewer walks than Cags at the Triple-A level, and those struggles followed Elko to the Majors (31.2% K rate and 3.1% BB rate).

Elko also had an xwOBA of 0.331 with Charlotte, which was 81 points lower than his actual wOBA. That is a stark difference from Cags’ xwOBA, as it was seven points higher than his .458 wOBA.

Thus, with the Kurtz, Osuna, and Elko as examples, it’s perfectly reasonable to think that Cags will be fine at the Major League level, even if there may be some regression in his surface level stats at the Major League level. The batted-ball and plate discipline profile should transition to the Major League level for the most part (as it did for those three), which will give the Royals a much-needed power bat in the middle of the lineup.

Cags Will Be Fine, but Expectations Should Be Modest

Cags will likely bat somewhere between the 4th and 6th spots in the batting order when he debuts on Tuesday, June 2nd, in St. Louis. Jonathan India will likely stay as the Royals’ leadoff hitter, and Witt will continue to bat second. However, it’s not out of the question to think that Cags could rotate in the third through sixth spots with Vinnie, Salvy, and Maikel Garcia.

Here’s how those five have performed this year statistically, as compiled by Fangraphs (organized by wOBA).

Garcia has been the best of the bunch with a .372 wOBA and .316 batting average in 234 plate appearances. Witt has been right behind him with a .347 wOBA and .283 batting average. After that, Pasquantino, India, and Salvy have had issues with wOBA, although Vinnie has seemed to be trending in the right direction recently, as demonstrated in his rolling wOBA chart.

So, with these stats known from the Royals’ “top” hitters (I say that generously), how does Cags fit into this mix?

A good starting point for determining the “right” place in the batting order for Cags is to examine his projected rest-of-season metrics. Royals fans can find his projections via his player profile page on Fangraphs.

In the table below, I have organized six different projection systems for Cags, categorized by projected wOBA.

OOPSY has the most optimistic projection for Cags, as they project him to hit 12 home runs and finish with a .329 wOBA. OOPSY uses Triple-A Statcast data, so it’s not surprising that they are more bullish about his outlook for the remainder of the season.

ZiPS’ projections for Cags are modest, as they predict he will hit nine home runs and produce a .312 wOBA. That said, Dan Szymborski, who created and runs ZiPS projections, mentioned that Cags’ projections have changed dramatically since Spring Training, as profiled in his recent piece.

Here’s what Szymborski said about the change and what his outlook could be at the Major League level.

“From a projection standpoint, Caglianone was the biggest mover of the spring, going from a projected wRC+ of 72 to 96, in large part because he had so little professional experience to draw from before. As one can expect, his 14 homers and .593 slugging percentage have only excited ZiPS even more. We now have significant professional play, and in the high minors, so not only has the projection continued to improve, but the error bars have also tightened.

ZiPS now projects Caglianone, if promoted to the majors, to hit .263/.335/.459, good enough for a 120 OPS+ and a wRC+ of 118. Despite his performance this year, he doesn’t project to be an instant phenom; expecting him to come in and immediately turn into Yordan Alvarez is probably unrealistic. But the Royals don’t need him to be Alvarez — though it would certainly be nice — they just need him to be better than what they have right now.”

Thus, if ZiPS, which tends to be the more grounded of projection systems, is optimistic about Cags, then Royals fans should be encouraged about his debut and what he could bring to this Royals lineup in 2025 and beyond.

Based on his median wOBA projection (0.316), I would slot Cags in the fifth spot after Garcia. While Garcia is not a traditional cleanup hitter, I like the idea of Garcia essentially being a second leadoff guy for the Royals if they go 1-2-3 in the top of the first inning.

Here’s what my projected batting order would be if I were Matt Quatraro (I listed their actual wOBA, as of Monday, and Cags’ median projected wOBA).

  1. India (.290 wOBA)
  2. Witt Jr. (.347 wOBA)
  3. Vinnie (.309 wOBA)
  4. Maikel (.372 wOBA)
  5. Cags (.316 wOBA)
  6. Salvy (.272 wOBA)

In addition to putting some “protection” around Cags, the Royals have a much better baserunning lineup (Salvy and Vinnie don’t clog the bases). Furthermore, Salvy gets to bat lower in the order, which could ease the pressure and give him more pitches to hit.

The reality is that we won’t know how Cags will specifically do in the Majors in his rookie year. After all, every player experiences some regression during their initial transition to the Big Leagues. Bobby went through it in 2022, when he didn’t even finish Top-3 in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Two years later, he was an AL MVP finalist.

The Royals are still in the playoff hunt at 31-29. The expanded playoff format helps. Nonetheless, Cags shouldn’t be seen as the “savior” or lone move that will help put the Royals back in the postseason in 2025.

Instead, he should be viewed as another step in a chain of moves to remodel this club, which will make them significantly better in the second half of the season (a crucial factor for a playoff run).

Fans shouldn’t expect Cags to “rescue” this Royals offense. They should want him to be “good enough” in the middle of the order, which is more than enough right now with how poor this Royals lineup has been through the first 60 games of the season.

Photo Credit: Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images

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