The Royals’ three-game winning streak ended on Friday, as Kansas City lost 3-0 to the Orioles in Baltimore.
Royals fans are pretty aware of the club’s struggles on the hitting end this season (they had only four hits against Dean Kremer and the rest of the Orioles bullpen yesterday). However, the Royals are 17-16 despite ranking 29th in hitting fWAR because of the pitching staff’s success.
According to Fangraphs, through 33 games, Kansas City ranks 7th in pitching fWAR, 4th in ERA, and tied for 7th in FIP. The rotation has been slightly stronger than the bullpen regarding results (the rotation ranks third in starter ERA while the bullpen ranks 7th in reliever ERA). Still, the pitching staff has carried the Royals to start the season, which has helped the Royals stay competitive as manager Matt Quatraro tries to figure things out with the lineup.
While much of my recent focus has been on the struggles of Royals hitters, I wanted to highlight the Royals pitchers who have been thriving in 2025. To do that, I will focus on three pitches from Royals pitchers who have stood out this season.
I will use Savant and Pitcher List to evaluate the three most successful pitches in 2025, using a variety of metrics. To determine the pitches to highlight, I chose three that ranked in the Top 10 in Run Value/100 pitches via Savant.
I didn’t simply choose the top three, as run value only tells part of a pitcher’s success story. Furthermore, I only selected one pitch from a pitcher from this list because I wanted to highlight three different Royals pitchers responsible for the staff’s early-season success (as Royals fans can see, Seth Lugo and Kris Bubic have multiple pitches that rank in the Top-10 in RV/100).
To further evaluate the pitcher’s offerings, I utilized PLV data via Pitcher List’s tools, available via a PL Pro subscription. I have also utilized TJ Stats’ pitch summary data on this blog, which is fantastic. However, I wanted to mix things up a bit, since PLV also gives us a good perspective of a pitch’s overall effectiveness and how it compares to the rest of the league.
In addition to PLV, I will also use other metrics available in multiple sources (including TJ Stats and Savant) that are primarily plucked from Pitcher List and their player card data.
Thus, let’s examine the three pitches from Royals pitchers that have been most effective in 2025.
Lugo’s Curveball (2.6 RV/100)
Lugo has gotten off to another strong start this season, even if he’s not getting as much attention as he did a season ago when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting to Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.
The 34-year-old righty has a 3.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.87 xERA, and 4.47 FIP in seven outings. Those numbers are identical to what he did in 2024 (3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.77 xERA), except FIP, which was significantly lower a season ago (3.25).
Lugo’s overall PLV is slightly below average at 4.96 (five is the typical MLB average), but his PLA is still solid at 3.18 (only 11 points higher than his mark a year ago). His pitch profile is interesting because he has many pitches that rate below average PLV-wise, but the sheer number of offerings makes it difficult for hitters to scout and lock in on him at the plate.
While the sinker rates better on an RV/100 end, it lags slightly on a PLV end with a 4.73 PLV and 5.01 PLA. Conversely, his curve rates well not only in terms of RV/100 but also in terms of PLV, with a 5.23 mark.
Here’s how his curve profiles this year via PLV characteristic data.
The metrics don’t stand out, as he only has two characteristics that rate above average (plvLoc+ and PLV). However, he generates a decent IVB (induced vertical break) and adjusted VAA (vertical approach angle), affecting how hitters pick up his curve at the plate.
A positive aspect of the curve is that Lugo not only throws it for strikes but also induces a lot of weak and unproductive contact on the breaking offering.
Str-ICR rate is a metric that calculates strikes minus the ideal contact rate. Ideal Contact Rate includes solid contact from hitters such as barrels. Thus, the lower the ICR, the more effective an offering is.
Lugo’s curve has a Str-ICR rate of 24.3%, which rates in the 85th percentile, and an ICR of 24.3%, which rates in the 87th percentile. He is also producing a 32.7% CSW%, an O-Swing% of 35.5%, and a Zone% of 49.3% with the curve. Thus, he’s not only inducing weak contact, but he also is generating strikes with the curve, both of the called and swinging strike variety.
When it comes to locating the curve, this heatmap demonstrates where in the zone he is attacking right- and left-handed batters.
He has a similar approach with each type of hitter. He tends to attack them with the curve both up and away. However, against right-handed hitters, he’s more in the zone, while against lefties, he lives more on the outside edge.
In his most recent start against the Rays, I highlight in the clip compilation below him attacking both those areas against left-handed hitter Jonathan Aranda and right-handed hitter Junior Caminero. He produces a called and swinging strike with the curve, respectively.
Lugo’s curve isn’t a “power” curve by any means. As seen, it’s more of a “loopy” breaking offering, which can be a good or bad thing depending on how the pitch is located. Thankfully, Lugo locates the curve effectively, and his vast arsenal plays off the breaking pitch well.
Thus, given all those factors involved, it’s not surprising that Lugo’s curveball is not only his highest-rated offering but also one of the best pitches thrown by Royals pitchers this season.
Estevez’s Four-Seamer (2.5 RV/100)
The bullpen was a big issue for the Royals in 2024, especially at the beginning of the season.
The Royals struggled in high-leverage situations, as Will Smith ceded the closer role early in the year, and James McArthur struggled with consistency (which eventually led to him losing the role later in the year). The bullpen got stronger after the Royals acquired Lucas Erceg at the Trade Deadline, and Kris Bubic joined after coming off the IL. That said, it’s understandable why JJ Picollo acquired Carlos Estevez this offseason, to give the bullpen more depth and insurance in the later innings.
Estevez has been the “real deal” for the Royals as their closer in 2025.
In 14 outings and 15 innings of work, the right-hander has a 2.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.69 xERA, and 3.52 FIP. Those surface-level metrics are worth celebrating. However, his PLV metrics have been more concerning, especially his 4.73 overall PLV, which ranks in the 15th percentile.
Estevez’s changeup has been poor on a PLV basis with a 3.83 mark and 7.31 PLA. His slider also ranks in the 31st percentile with a 4.87 PLV and 4.11 PLA. Thus, those two offerings weigh down his overall PLV profile in 2025.
Conversely, his four-seamer may be an offering demonstrating his potential as a closer, even if none of the PLV metrics stick out.
Estevez’s primary fastball has a 4.90 PLV and 4.07 PLA, which rank in the 47th percentile. Those numbers alone don’t seem encouraging. However, the profile looks more optimistic when digging deeper into his four-seam characteristics.
Estevez has four characteristics that rate above average: velocity (94.9 MPH), IVB (16.8 inches), arm-side break (9.0 inches), and adjusted VAA (1.1 degrees). The ones that rank below average are release extension (6.3 ft) and plvLoc+ (97). That said, his four-seamer location is atypical from the rest of the league, which can be seen via his four-seam location heatmap via Pitcher List.
Typically, pitchers want to locate the pitch up in the zone with four-seamers, to let the natural rise entice hitters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. Conversely, Estevez lives on the bottom of the strike zone against righties and lefties. That’s typically the approach from pitchers who utilize sinkers, not four-seamers.
In the clip compilation below, Estevez attacks Tampa’s Chandler Simpson and Detroit’s Dillon Dingler with four-seamers low in the strike zone, similar to what we see from his four-seam heatmap.
It’s an uncanny approach. That said, it has worked for Estevez this year. He’s not producing tremendous strikeout or strike data with the four-seamer. Still, he’s avoiding ICR and not making mistakes with the offering, which is what one wants to see from someone in high-leverage situations in the late innings.
His four-seamer’s 41.2% ICR ranks in the 60th percentile, his 3.2% MTK% ranks in the 58th percentile, and his 35.3% GB% ranks in the 50th percentile. Those are encouraging signs, and his 49th percentile called strike percentage and 57th percentile O-Swing% also demonstrate that he can induce strikes when needed.
Estevez got off to a slow start because he was not 100 percent in Spring Training with back issues. However, as he gets more work, it seems like he’s getting stronger, which will help him generate better strike metrics with the four-seamer, which hasn’t come easily for him since the start of 2025.
Bubic’s Four-Seamer (1.5 RV/100)
I deliberated which pitch to focus on for my third and final one. Angel Zerpa and his sinker and Michael Wacha and his changeup are two offerings that have profiled well this year, as demonstrated by their pitch characteristic data via PLV.
However, I was too intrigued by Kris Bubic and his four-seamer, especially since at the surface level it doesn’t seem to have the velocity to be successful (Royals Data Dugout dug into this and why IVB can be so important to fastball success in his latest Saturday Study Hall post).
After pitching primarily in the bullpen last year, Bubic moved to the rotation this year and has absolutely thrived under pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove. In six outings and 36 innings of work, Bubic has four quality starts, a 2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.12 xERA, and 2.89 FIP.
Bubic’s performance was so strong in March/April that the Royals named him the pitcher of the month yesterday (along with Bobby Witt Jr as hitter of the month).
In terms of PLV, the 27-year-old is producing a 5.08 PLV, which ranks in the 63rd percentile of the league, and a 2.87 PLA, which ranks in the 68th percentile.
In terms of his arsenal, Bubic’s four-seamer and slider are the ones that primarily stick out via PLV metrics.
The slider looks excellent with a 5.80 PLV and 1.23 PLA. That’s pretty remarkable to see, especially since as recently as 2022, former pitching coach Cal Eldred encouraged Bubic NOT to throw the slider. Thankfully, Sweeney and Bove have a much different approach and it’s producing results, not just with Bubic, but the whole pitching staff.
While it may be tempting to look at the slider, he only throws it 12% of the time. Conversely, he throws the four-seamer 43% of the time and has produced excellent metrics on the pitch, not just in terms of PLV, but across the board, as seen below.
Bubic’s four-seamer sports a 29.5% O-Swing% (64th percentile), a 32.4% CSW (85th percentile), a 55.3% Str-ICR (77th percentile), and 42.1% ICR (54th percentile). It also sports some impressive characteristics on the PLV end as well, which can be seen in the following chart.
His four-seamer rates above average in terms of release extension, IVB, and adjusted VAA. He is below-average in velocity, arm-side break, and plvLoc+. The latter is interesting because it seems like his heatmap data shows that he’s primarily struggled to command the pitch against left-handed hitters.
Bubic has focused on attacking the upper gloveside area of the strike zone with his four-seamer against right and left-handed hitters. Unfortunately, he has missed more often against left-handed hitters, which has had an effect on his overall plvLoc+ mark.
When Bubic is able to pinpoint his command on the four-seamer, he can be tough to hit against. Against Colorado’s Ryan McMahon, Bubic initially missed wide and away with the four-seamer early in the count. However, he came back again with the four-seamer, this time dotting it right on the outside edge, inducing a backward strikeout from McMahon.
There definitely has been a bit of an adjustment for Bubic transitioning back to the rotation from the bullpen. Furthermore, teams are getting more film on him as a starter and their approaches have changed, which was evident in his last start against Houston, who were much more patient and not chasing as much, especially on the four-seamer.
While it may not be a high-velocity offering, it’s a deceivingly effective pitch that makes him one of the better pitchers in the AL Central. Bubic is a student of the game so I have no doubt that he will do what is necessary to make the necessary adjustments on his four-seamer, which will make it an even better offering over the course of the season.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel