On Saturday morning, before the Royals’ contest against the Tigers (whom they lost to 3-1, marking their sixth-straight loss on this road trip), Kansas City announced via social media that they would be sending down MJ Melendez to Omaha and activating Mark Canha off the injured list.
The move to send down Melendez to Triple-A seemed to be coming after MJ had sat out the past two games against right-handed pitchers. Furthermore, Melendez had looked lost at the plate this season, and his stats backed that assertion up.
In 16 games and 52 plate appearances, MJ produced a slash of .085/.173/.170 with a .343 OPS, .167 wOBA, and -2 wOBA. His BB/K ratio was 0.15 this season, his ISO was .085, and his xwOBA was .224, all career lows. Even though it’s still a small sample size, the Royals rightfully understood that this wasn’t just a slump, and that MJ needed to head to Omaha to get his head and his swing mechanics right.
Thus, with the Royals making this move so early in the season (typically, you don’t see these kinds of moves from teams until May 1st), what does MJ need to do in Triple-A to get himself right and become a contributor to the Kansas City lineup again? Furthermore, what will the Royals’ lineup and outfield look like with Melendez with the Storm Chasers for a period? Who are some players who could take advantage while MJ is in Omaha?
Let’s answer those questions regarding Melendez and the Royals’ outfield.
Decision-Making (And Not Sacrificing Power) Needs to Be Melendez’s Priority in Omaha
Melendez has consistently demonstrated natural power at the Major League level since debuting in 2022. When looking at his rolling hard-hit rate charts, he’s consistently ranked well above the league average in this category since his rookie year, even this season, despite his overall struggles.
Therefore, I trust that Melendez will tap into his power stroke again in Omaha, especially with Werner Park being one of the more hitter-friendly yards in Triple-A. Hitting bombs and extra base hits, especially in a less-pressured environment, will undoubtedly help Melendez get back into the mindset that made him such an intriguing hitter from 2022 to 2024.
In addition to his power, Melendez is also a hitter who will always profile as a bit below-average in terms of contact ability. Based on his swing and miss percentage rolling charts via Savant, he has always been a hitter who’s whiffed more than the league average hitter in his three-plus-year career.
That’s not the worst thing in the world. Plenty of hitters have high whiff rates and low batting averages, but have still carved out decent Major League careers (Rob Deer is a prime example).
The difference for a hitter with good power but low contact ability hinges on their decision-making at the plate. Can they make up for the swing-and-miss by laying off bad pitches out of the zone and drawing enough walks to make up for the strikeouts? That’s the difference between a Kyle Schwarber (who’s an All-Star) and Franmil Reyes (who’s an All-Star in Japan).
That’s going to be the biggest key for Melendez in this stint in Omaha.
Can he improve his decision-making at the plate to the point where he’s chasing less out of the zone? Can he improve his walk rate and lower his strikeout rate while still keeping that trademark power that produced majestic home runs like this clutch one against the Mariners below?
When Melendez has been successful at the Major League level, it’s typically when his power and decision-making tools are clicking, even if the contact is lagging behind a bit.
Here’s a look at his Process+ rolling charts from 2022 and 2023.
The contact ability was impressive in the second half of 2022. That gave Royals and fans hope that Melendez could be an All-Star-caliber player, especially with a full-time move to the outfield. Unfortunately, his contact regressed in 2023, remaining quite similar throughout the entire season, much like in the first half of 2022.
That said, his power and decision-making remained consistently above-average in 2023, much like his rookie campaign. That made him a rosterable and playable asset on the Royals in his first two years in the league.
Now, let’s examine how his Process+ rolling chart appeared last year.
The contact was a bit worse, especially before July. However, from August until the end of the year, the contact jumped, as did the decision-making. Melendez, based on Process+, showed a profile similar to what we saw from him in the second half of 2022. Thus, it seemed like with another adjustment, Melendez could take the next step from “questionable” regular player to a “solidified” one in 2025.
Unfortunately, the results just haven’t been there for MJ, even with the new swing changes. Here’s what his Process+ looked like with the Royals before his demotion.
The decision-making process was showing some positive signs, with its trend recently being slightly above average. However, his power has declined dramatically, which is a much bigger issue than his questionable contact ability.
The reality is that Melendez needs to know what kind of hitter he is and what parts of the zone he can succeed in. He has seemed to lose that ability with more at-bats at the Major League level, as his PLV hitter heatmaps from 2022 to 2024 demonstrate.
What’s interesting to note is that Melendez’s contact ability has remained relatively unchanged since 2022. He struggles to hit balls up in the zone. However, he was swinging on those pitches more than ever in 2024, as his swing-aggression chart is a lot more red than it was in 2022. Even with more swinging, his contact didn’t improve, and his power took a bit of a hit as well. He had more blue (which signifies worse than league average) in the upper zone of his power chart last year than in his rookie year.
Melendez getting back to that 2022 form in Omaha will be critical. He was more patient at the plate, as his 0.50 BB/K ratio that season was a career-high. Yes, Melendez only hit .217 that season. Conversely, his wRC+ was 97 in his rookie year. That was a career-best and better than his 91 mark in 2023, when he had a batting average of .235. The issue in his sophomore year was that he only had a BB/K ratio of 0.36, as his walk rate declined and K rate rose.
It shouldn’t be about batting average with MJ. He will never be a .260+ or even .250+ hitter at the Major League level.
Instead, his focus with the Storm Chasers should be on knowing his strengths (and weaknesses) in the strike zone, being more patient at the plate, and letting his power truly work rather than sacrificing it for contact.
By doing those three things, he can not just return to Kansas City, but be a contributor who can make an impact again, both in 2025 and beyond.
Who Will Fill in for MJ in Kansas City?
The return of Canha is a good thing as he provided professional at-bats before his injury.
In seven games and 17 plate appearances, Canha had a slash of .357/.471/.500 with a .971 OPS, .431 wOBA, and 185 wRC+. The 36-year-old veteran also had a BB/K ratio of 0.67, a nice change of pace from MJ’s free-swinging approach.
That said, Canha is pretty much a platoon bat at his age, and his latest injury shows that he may not be a guy the Royals can play every day (though they should play him regularly, especially against left-handed starting pitchers). A significant issue for Canha is that his power has also declined substantially over the past year, as indicated by his Process+ chart from 2024.
With another year of age, and a stadium that can suppress home run power (Canha isn’t exactly a speed demon on the basepaths), Canha’s power tool on his Process+ chart in 2025 will likely look similar to his 2024 one. Thus, the Royals need to find some upside in the outfield with MJ working on his hitting in Omaha.
Right now, the option seems to be Drew Waters, who has received starts in the past two games. This may be Waters’s last chance to prove that he is worthy of a long-term roster spot in Kansas City.
The former Atlanta second-round pick had a promising 2023, during which he hit eight home runs, stole 16 bases, and posted a .677 OPS in 337 plate appearances. However, he only hit .228 that season and also struck out 31.8% of the time, while walking only 8% of the time. His Process+ from that season also exhibited above-average power, but subpar decision-making and contact skills.
Thus, it’s not a surprise that he didn’t see much playing time in 2024, especially with other utility options available on the bench like Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier.
Regardless, the power he showcased sporadically in 2023 makes him an intriguing player worth giving at-bats to at this time. Right now, there may not be another outfielder on the Royals’ active roster who can hit a bomb like this Waters one from 2023 against Tampa Bay’s Yonny Chirinos at Kauffman.
The early results haven’t been great for Waters in 2025.
In 27 plate appearances, he is hitting only .160 with a .422 OPS, and he has struck out 10 times while walking only twice. That said, both of his walks came in today’s game against the Tigers, and he also collected a stolen base in this series as well. With more plate appearances, the power could come, especially if he can get more comfortable and settled into a semi-regular role until Melendez returns.
It’s not out of the question to think that Waters can get on a heater like Nelson Velázquez did when he came over to the Royals from the Cubs at the 2023 Trade Deadline.
If Waters can’t take advantage of his opportunity, it’s likely the Royals will tap either John Rave, Tyler Gentry, or Joey Wiemer in Omaha to see what they can do at the Major League level. Nick Loftin could also be a possibility, though he seems to be more of a candidate to replace a struggling Cavan Biggio than Waters.
Of course, this may all be moot if MJ can have a solid 3-4 weeks in Omaha and regain his power and plate discipline.
Because if MJ’s ready, he will likely be coming for Waters’ roster spot, especially if Waters isn’t able to turn things around at the plate in the next week or two.
Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
[…] still has three Minor League options remaining, so optioning him to Omaha is a possibility. The Royals have already done it with MJ Melendez, and the move has drawn mixed feelings from Royals fans about the outfielder’s future in […]