The Royals have five Cactus League games remaining, including split-squad contests today against the Mariners and Athletics. At this point, GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro seem to be in the final days of roster deliberation. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Opening Day roster announcements either Sunday or Monday, even though two Spring Training games remain on Monday and Tuesday.
In this post, I will share my final Opening Day roster projections. Frankly, this process has been easier than in seasons past, which is good because the roster is much healthier this year. That said, there are some changes from my initial and second Opening Day roster predictions.
Projected Starting Lineup
- Jonathan India, 2B
- Bobby Witt Jr., SS
- Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
- Salvador Perez, C
- Michael Massey, DH
- MJ Melendez, LF
- Hunter Renfroe, RF
- Maikel Garcia, 3B
- Kyle Isbel, CF
Changes? Not at all with the starting lineup, which has remained stable since my first set of predictions at the start of Spring Training.
The only one I was questionable about was Renfroe, but he has had a solid spring at the plate. In 12 games and 35 plate appearances, he is hitting .300 with a home run, 10 RBI, and five runs scored. He’s also producing a 0.57 BB/K ratio and 1.000 OPS. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers talked last week about Renfroe being a candidate for a bounce-back season in 2025, giving the Royals a much-needed boost in the middle of the lineup.
I am unsure if Renfroe will last the whole season with the Royals (as I discussed on this blog this spring). Nonetheless, I think Renfroe guaranteed his spot in the Opening Day lineup with an excellent Cactus League campaign.
Projected Bench
- Freddy Fermin, C
- Cavan Biggio, UTL
- Nick Loftin, UTL
- Dairon Blanco, OF
I am a fan of Nelson Velazquez. What he did in 2023 was fun, and even though he didn’t have a good 2024, he showed flashes of being the kind of hitter who could boost the middle or bottom of the Royals lineup. Unfortunately, he took some steps back last year and hasn’t gotten it done at the plate in Arizona this spring.
In 12 games and 29 plate appearances, he’s hitting .208 with a .595 OPS. He’s shown solid plate discipline with a 1.00 BB/K ratio. However, he’s produced little to nothing in terms of power. He has no home runs, and only one extra-base hit (a double) this spring. Furthermore, his Statcast batted-ball metrics are paltry, to say the least.
As a result, Velazquez doesn’t make the team, resulting in him being DFA’d and being in a new organization on Opening Day.
In his place, Blanco steps in, who is fully healthy after a minor Achilles injury.
The Cuban outfielder has not been stellar this spring. He’s hitting .278, but he only has a .580 OPS and a 38.5% K rate particularly hurts his 0.20 BB/K ratio. He has only 13 plate appearances, so it’s a small sample. He could raise those numbers in the season’s final five games, which he likely will play in most, if not all, to prepare him for Opening Day.
If the Royals don’t think he’s ready, Joey Wiemer claiming the last bench spot wouldn’t be surprising.
In 18 games and 39 plate appearances, Wiemer is hitting .303 with a .956 OPS and 0.55 BB/K ratio. He also has two home runs, 11 runs scored, nine RBI, and two stolen bases. Add that with stellar defense, and one can see why Wiemer would make sense as a platoon outfielder against left-handed starting pitchers.
The only reason I go with Blanco over Wiemer here is that Blanco’s one tool (baserunning speed) outweighs any of Wiemer’s tools. That makes Blanco the ideal bench player, as he can come into pinch run and give the Royals the scoring opportunities they need. Blanco thrived under Quatraro in this role last year, and I think Q’s familiarity with Blanco gives the Cuban outfielder the edge over Wiemer for now.
Projected Rotation
- Cole Ragans, LHP
- Seth Lugo, RHP
- Michael Wacha, RHP
- Michael Lorenzen, RHP
- Kris Bubic, LHP
I’ve long thought Bubic was the guy over Lynch due to Bubic’s better pitch movement and stuff. Yesterday, Rogers reported that Lynch seems likely to start the season in the bullpen, and Bubic will likely be the last starter in the Royals’ rotation.
Bubic had a rough outing on Thursday, giving up six runs in 3.2 IP. Despite the results, command issues (43% zone rate), and lack of whiffs (16.7% whiff rate), he still produced solid stuff via tjStuff+ metrics.
I am not sure Bubic will last the whole season in the rotation. Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright will likely start the year in Omaha to get more innings since injuries have sidelined them in Arizona this spring. However, Marsh and Wright are ramping back up, and they could be long relievers or spot starters who could make an impact by June or July.
There’s depth in the Royals organization that could make Bubic still valuable, even if he doesn’t stick in the rotation for the entire season. At the very least, they know he can be excellent in a bullpen role (as Royals fans saw in 2024).
Projected Bullpen
- Lucas Erceg, CL
- Carlos Estevez, CL
- Hunter Harvey, SU
- John Schreiber, MR
- Angel Zerpa, MR
- Chris Stratton, MR
- Daniel Lynch IV, MR
- Sam Long, MR
After a rough start in the Cactus League, Long has settled down. He has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six games and six innings pitched. That said, he’s not striking out batters (15.4% K rate), his command has been spotty (7.7% K-BB%), and the stuff has been mediocre via tjStuff+.
At the same time, I think the Royals valued what Long did last season (3.16 ERA and 3.89 FIP in 42.2 IP) to cut loose now. He could be an early DFA candidate, especially if the Spring problems transition into the regular season. However, Long has built too much goodwill to be given up now.
Unfortunately, I cannot say the same with Carlos Hernandez.
He had a solid season in 2024, posting a 3.30 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 27 games and 30 IP. However, Hernandez still showed control and command issues, as evidenced by his 1.69 K/BB ratio in 2024. His 20.9% K rate and 8.5% K-BB% regressed from his marks in 2023 (25.7% K rate and 15.3% K-BB%).
This spring, Hernandez has continued to demonstrate more of the same issues regarding control. In eight Spring Training games and 10.1 IP, his K% is 18.2%, and his K-BB% is 6.8%. His stuff also hasn’t exactly been eye-popping via TJ Stats metrics.
Hernandez certainly still has the velocity, which makes him valuable. Conversely, the Royals have relievers in Omaha who can provide that velocity but with more productive pitch movement. Steven Cruz and Jonathan Bowlan are two relievers who will start in Triple-A and have better overall repertoires via tjStuff+.
Cruz and Bowlan have Minor League options, which Hernandez doesn’t. That gives them roster flexibility, which Quatraro and Picollo like to have with their relievers due to the long season and the need for pitchers to fill in as needed based on situation (stretches with no days off) or injury.
The Royals can’t afford to have Hernandez burn a spot in the Royals bullpen solely as a guy who comes in for mop-up or low-leverage situations. At 28 years old, he needs to be a guy who, at the very least, can pitch in medium-leverage situations with spot high-leverage appearances if Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, or Carlos Estevez are unavailable.
Unfortunately, I don’t see the Royals having that confidence in Hernandez, which likely means his tenure in Kansas City will be done before Opening Day.
Photo Credit: Reggie Hildred USA TODAY Sports
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