The Royals continue to hum in Cactus League play, with another win against the Angels on Friday, though the game was cut short due to weather.
A lot can happen in Spring Training that can change the roster outlook for Opening Day. I have made my initial roster projections, but my roster selection could likely change next week, especially with how certain players perform so far in Cactus League play. Some Royals are significantly turning heads this spring, with 2024 first-round selection Jac Caglianone being one of those examples.
In this post, I will examine four players (two hitters and two pitchers) who were under the radar with Royals fans this offseason and are sticking out in Arizona thanks to strong performances in Spring Training. These four players did not make my initial Opening Day roster prediction and didn’t get much buzz from fans before camp (unlike Cags).
However, these four could make me change my mind if they continue to build solid numbers and showcase strong potential in Cactus League play.
Nick Loftin, 2B/UT
Due to Michael Massey starting the season on the IL last year, Loftin made the Opening Day roster, and hopes were high that Loftin was due for a breakout in 2024.
In 19 games and 68 plate appearances in 2023, the former Baylor Bear slashed .323/.368/.435 with a .348 wOBA and 117 wRC+. Loftin showcased a high-contact approach, which made him an ideal candidate at the bottom of the lineup. However, he only had a hard-hit rate of 35.3%, contributing to an xwOBA of .306 in his Royals debut, a 42-point difference from his actual wOBA.
Despite getting a shot to prove himself in Massey’s absence, Loftin failed to take advantage.
In 57 games and 148 plate appearances in 2024, he slashed .189/.282/.236 with a .242 wOBA and 50 wRC+. The hard-contact woes continued last year, as he only produced an average exit velocity of 83.6 MPH (a 2.4 MPH decline from 2023), a 3.1% barrel rate (4.7% decline), and a 26% hard-hit rate (9.3% decline).
Conversely, despite the power issues, Loftin demonstrated strong plate discipline and contact skills in 2024. His BB/K ratio improved from 0.33 in 2023 to 0.79 in 2024, and his contact and decision-making skills via Process+ remained strong throughout his small sample from a season ago.
Even in the Minor Leagues, Loftin continued to showcase a solid eye at the plate and ability to put the ball in play. The power was also a bit better in Omaha (.462 slugging). Still, his exit velocity and hard-hit metrics remained subpar in Triple-A via TJ Stats (a big reason we didn’t see Loftin much down the stretch, even amidst the Royals’ hitting woes).
There isn’t much Statcast batted-ball data for hitters, but Loftin is doing all he can this spring to prove that he can bounce back in 2025 with an extended opportunity.
In seven games and 17 plate appearances, he has a slash of .462/.588/.692 with a .557 wOBA and 239 wRC+. He also has a 1.33 BB/K ratio, scored two runs, and collected three RBI. Of course, it’s a small sample, but it shows that Loftin should be taken more seriously as a utility candidate for the upcoming season.
Staying healthy is a big hurdle for Loftin, which could determine whether he makes the Opening Day roster in 2025. He’s already been dealing with some wrist issues in Arizona and was removed for sickness in his last game.
The 2020 comp round pick has dealt with nagging injuries throughout his Minor League career, which has put him a bit behind in his development and explains why he has only 76 career MLB games at 26 years old. If the wrist injury lingers, he could start the year on the IL to ensure he returns to 100 percent.
If Loftin’s wrist injury is behind him (and he gets over his sickness), then Royals fans should pay close attention to his performance for the remainder of Cactus League play. He can play the corner outfield positions and multiple positions in the infield (3B, 2B, and 1B). He’s not a natural CF type, but if Maikel Garcia becomes an option in CF against left-handed starting pitchers, that opens the door for more playing time for Loftin and perhaps newcomer Joey Wiemer beginning the year in Omaha.
Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Bowlan has long been a favorite of mine, and it seems like things are finally coming together for him as a reliever.
The former Memphis product moved to the Omaha bullpen on July 19th and thrived for the remainder of the 2024 season. He posted a 2.73 ERA, 20.6% K%, 15.9% K-BB%, and 1.12 WHIP in 26 IP. While he didn’t get much of an opportunity in the Majors last year (only one 2.2 IP outing), his strong finish has made him a bit of a sleeper for the Royals bullpen in 2025.
This spring, Bowlan has gotten off to a strong start. In four Cactus League outings and four innings of work, he’s posted a 0.00 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 40% K rate, 26.7% K-BB%, and 0.75 WHIP. Furthermore, he’s also demonstrated solid stuff and movement on his pitches this spring via TJ Stats data.
So far this spring, Bowlan has sported three pitches with a tjStuff+ over 100 and four with grades over 53. His slider has been his best primary pitch this spring with a 105 tjStuff+, and his four-seamer has showcased solid tjStuff+ (100), velocity (95.8 MPH), and iVB (16.7 inches).
When looking at one of his most recent outings with Statcast data (against the Rockies), he flooded the strike zone, especially with his slider (80% CSW) and four-seamer (33.3% CSW).
When looking at how Bowlan attacked hitters in that game, he attacked left-handed hitters up with the four-seamer and right-handers low and away with the slider. The slider has demonstrated some considerable vertical break (3.6 inches of difference) from a year ago, making it a compelling offering, primarily when it’s located on the edges like it was against the Rockies.
The 28-year-old right-hander has a Minor League option, so he will likely start the year in Omaha as the Royals perhaps try other options in the bullpen without Minor League options remaining (Sam Long, Chris Stratton, and Carlos Hernandez). However, Bowlan could be a reliever who could quickly matriculate from Omaha to Kansas City, especially if one of those three falters at the beginning of the season.
John Rave, OF
Rave continues to be a bit of an enigma to Royals fans.
He’s not on the 40-man roster, and his metrics are a bit weird, as demonstrated in his TJ Stats Minor League card from a season ago.
Rave barreled the ball a lot (73rd percentile) and didn’t chase (74th percentile) or whiff a ton (67th percentile). However, his LA Sweet-Spot% was subpar (31st percentile), as was his xwOBA (39th percentile) and average EV (37th percentile). Thus, those blemishes were probably why the Royals didn’t add him to the 40-man roster this offseason (or why he wasn’t selected in the Rule 5 Draft).
A big issue for Rave was aggressiveness, as his Z-Swing% (14th percentile) demonstrated that he probably let too many pitches go by. That led to a slightly elevated K% (21.6%), which improved from what he did in Omaha in that category in 2023 (27.8%), but still is too high in Triple-A for a hitter trying to make it in the MLB.
Still, Rave’s profile seems to hint that he can be an MLB player, and he’s showing that this spring. In eight games and 18 plate appearances in Cactus League play, he has a .500/.611/.643 slash with a .557 wOBA and 239 wRC+. He scored five runs, collected four RBI, and stole three bases.
Don’t be surprised if Rave becomes this season’s CJ Alexander. He eventually forces the Royals to add him to the 40-man roster with another season of improvement in Omaha in 2025 (even if his tenure in Kansas City may not last long, like Alexander’s).
Junior Fernandez, RHP
Fernandez is in a tough dilemma because his Spring Training stats are not pretty. He has a 12.00 ERA in three outings, a 5.63 FIP, and a 2.67 WHIP. However, a lot about his profile makes him an intriguing NRI pitcher to watch this spring in Surprise.
The 28-year-old reliever has generated a 29.4% K%, 23.5% K-BB% and 36.9% CSW. His pitch quality has also been solid, as shown by his TJ Stats data.
Command has been an issue for Fernandez this spring, especially against left-handed hitters. As seen in his pitch chart via Pitcher List from his March 5th outing against the Mariners, Royals fans can see how many four-seamers he left in the middle of the zone, leading to two hits and a run allowed.
Even though he had command issues against the Mariners (and this spring in general), he still produced strong pitch movement and CSW metrics.
Fernandez likely won’t be a factor for an Opening Day roster spot, especially with a crowded bullpen. However, he has the profile of being a sleeper reliever for the Royals once he knocks off the rust a bit (he was mainly injured last year with the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan). With a solid month or two in Omaha, he could make himself an option for the Royals bullpen, much like Long a season ago, who went from NRI in Spring Training to a key Royals reliever in 2024.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images
[…] Loftin could also be in the mix for outfield work if Renfroe were no longer in Kansas City, though he would probably see more time in the infield due to his experience there in the Minors Leagues. Another longshot candidate is Nick Pratto, who is seeing more time in Arizona in the outfield, as he is also out of Minor League options. They need to decide on his future with the Royals by Opening Day, and based on his Triple-A metrics last year, it’s likely that he won’t be with the organization for much longer. […]