The Royals made some news on Friday night. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the addition of another hitter to the lineup. Instead, it was a contract extension of their best-starting pitcher.
Jeff Passan broke the news of Cole Ragans‘ three-year extension on social media.
MLB Network Insider Mark Feinsand further broke down the contract details on Twitter, sharing how much Ragans will make each season over the next three years.
Lastly, the Royals officially announced the deal shortly after the Passan announcement, thus showing that Kansas City was eager to announce the deal publicly.
After producing a 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 4.9 fWAR in 32 games and 186.1 IP last season, Ragans gets a much-deserved raise for the next few seasons. Furthermore, the Royals get some cost certainty with one of their best players, which gives them payroll flexibility over the next three seasons. Thus, this is a win-win deal for both sides.
Here are three takeaways from the Ragans deal, relating to not just Ragans’ future in Kansas City but the overall outlook of this club next season and beyond.
Ragans Gets Much-Needed Salary Assurance
There’s no question that Ragans earned this “mini-extension.”
He finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting last season, with some feeling that he deserved Top-3 consideration (Tarik Skubal, Seth Lugo, and Emmanuel Clase were the Top-3 in the AL race). I talked about a possible Ragans extension on this blog back in January, though I was looking at more of a long-term deal in the piece that would’ve been much more expensive.
When looking at what he did statistically, there wasn’t a whole lot to complain about with Ragans’ 2024 performance. This includes not just his traditional numbers (like ERA and WHIP), but also his strike-generating and stuff metrics, which can be seen below via TJ Stats.
Steamer and PECOTA are both optimistic about Ragans’ outlook for 2025. Thus, after such a promising first full season in Kansas City, and with a sunny projection ahead of him this year, why would Ragans agree to such an extension and not try to maximize his value year after year through arbitration?
One reason could be credited to his injury history.
Ragans has had two Tommy John surgeries already in his career (both occurred when he was with the Texas Rangers). Even though he has been healthy in his 1.5 seasons with the Royals, his high-velocity style could make him susceptible to re-aggravation. If that happens, and Ragans is only arbitration-eligible, he could risk losing out on money in the negotiation process.
This three-year extension now covers this non-arbitration season this year and his first two arbitration-eligible years. That should give him peace of mind (and a steady salary) if something should happen injury-wise this season or next. Furthermore, with one arbitration-eligible year remaining, he can still get that big payday in arbitration or perhaps negotiate another longer-term extension with the Royals.
Based on a report today from MLB.com Royals writer Anne Rogers, JJ Picollo seems open to such discussions in the future.
Could Ragans have risked stability to make more year-to-year? We have seen such a strategy work with pitchers such as Corbin Burnes with the Brewers.
On the flip side, Ragans seems to value stability more and stability with an organization and city that he genuinely loves. At the Royals Rally, he appeared to reiterate in his pitcher interview panel how much he loved Kansas City and shared the same sentiment the day after signing the extension.
“I hope I’m here for forever.”
Not many young, star players from small-market teams are saying that about their city or organization.
And yet, Ragans joins Bobby Witt, Jr. as another one doing so. Something special is brewing with the Royals organization.
Royals Avoid Arbitration Headaches For At Least Two Seasons
Royals fans must examine how they handled the Brady Singer negotiations two offseasons ago to better understand the Ragans’ extension.
In 2022, Singer had a tremendous season with the Royals, his best year yet at that point in his career. In 27 games and 153.1 IP, he posted a 3.23 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 3.0 fWAR. The Royals’ first selection in the 2018 MLB Draft, many Royals fans wondered if they would offer him an extension, especially since he was entering arbitration before the 2023 season.
It’s unclear if the Royals discussed extension talks with Singer that offseason. Nevertheless, the Royals and Singer were unable to reach an agreement and thus went to arbitration, a rarity in the Dayton Moore era. The tense negotiations and inconsistent Spring Training due to his participation in the 2023 World Baseball Classic contributed to Singer’s regression in 2023.
In 159.2 IP, he posted a 5.52 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 2.0 fWAR. His performance wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t precisely “ace-like” either. Thus, it seemed like the Royals had moved on from the idea of dubbing Singer the “ace” of this organization, and that led to him being traded this offseason to Cincinnati for Jonathan India (despite a strong 2024 campaign).
Likely, Picollo and the Royals didn’t want to repeat that process with Ragans, who could command much more than Singer if the lefty produced another Cy-Young caliber campaign. It’s one thing to get into tense negotiations with Singer, who’s good but was ultimately a No. 4 starter on this current Royals pitching staff. Having these tense negotiations with a legitimate “ace” could be a lot more damaging, as baseball fans saw from Burnes during his last years in Milwaukee.
Additionally, considering the Royals want to continue building with this roster in the future, not “knowing” how much Ragans would command year-to-year would seriously dampen those plans. Now, with Ragans’ salary situation more predictable and secure, the Royals can budget to be more aggressive in the future when building this roster, both internally and externally.
Who’s Next Up for An Extension?
Royals fans saw Witt get an extension last offseason, and Ragans get one this winter. WCW legend Goldberg can eloquently ask the question in our psyches now.
Right now, the Royals’ most logical long-term target is Vinnie Pasquantino, arguably their second-best hitter after Witt. In 131 games and 554 plate appearances last season, Vinnie hit 19 home runs, collected 97 RBI, and posted a 108 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR.
Pasquantino has been a bit of an injury risk in his career. He missed most of 2023 due to a shoulder injury and the last month of 2024 due to a thumb injury. That could help the Royals negotiate, even if he may have issues staying on the field consistently long-term.
Pasquantino has the plate discipline and contact ability to be a mainstay at the top of the Royals lineup for a long time. Furthermore, the Royals lineup took a nosedive when he hit the IL at the end of August (thankfully, he returned in time for the postseason). The main concern is his barrel and sweet-spot ability, as he should produce more power-wise for a player of his size and tools.
Even though Vinnie may top out at 20-25 HR at the MLB level, I think he would be worth a long-term extension, especially since it’s unlikely that the Royals will find someone better on the free-agent market in the near future.
The other short-term target is Salvador Perez.
According to Roster Resource payroll data, Salvy is in the last guaranteed season of his deal, as he has a club option for 2026. The Royals may consider not exercising the club option and instead negotiating one last extension to ensure that Salvy finishes his career in Kansas City, much like Alex Gordon before him.
That said, unlike Gordon, who was more of a sentimental favorite than a productive player in his last years, Salvy is still one of the catalysts of this Royals lineup. Even though he will be turning 35 this season, he is coming off one of his career’s most productive offensive seasons.
Could Salvy be worth one last three-year extension? Or perhaps a two-year extension with some option, whether club, player, or mutual?
Salvy would be nearly 40 by the end of any future deal. However, considering all he’s meant to this franchise, it seems likely that Picollo and the Royals will try to make one last deal with the captain to ensure he finishes his career in the City of Fountains.
With Ragans’ deal already set, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals try to hammer that deal out before Opening Day.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
The rotation, being “six-deep” is enticing. Lets assume they all pitch 160 innings. Not a particularly heavy load even for a four man rotation. That’s 960 innings. Basically, your starter may get you to the sixth inning regularly. Add to that the likelihood of pitching on five or more days’ rest, there’s a strong possibility that he may be strong and less prone to the mechanical breakdowns seem on tired pitchers like not finishing through on the pitch, which causes the pitch to be higher in the strike zone. A couple have the potential of pitching closer to 200 IP. Either way, the prospect of a strong rotation gives me hope that all six may be below 4.00 ERA. Also, handing over the game as planned, rather than out of necessity improves the odds for victory as well as the reliever’s stats.
Extenfing Salvo makes sense. I think that as good as Fermin is, we’d have two young catchers in development that will make Fermin a sought after commodity. Pasquatch could have an escalator clause based on games played.
Read yesterday that Wiener should dislodge Renfroe out of RF starting lineup. Perhaps as a platoon. Come July, when rosters expand we should platoon every position that merits it. We will need the output.
I feel good too about the direction of the rotation. As long as they stay healthy, they should be incredibly deep. As you said, the idea of having 5-6 starters who can post an ERA under 4 is a luxury that not many teams in the league can boast. Plus, the innings they can total can ease things on the bullpen, which was a bit over-extended last year before Erceg and Bubic arrived. I also like the idea of guys like Lynch and Bowlan, who obviously can start, but can give you long innings if possible. The pitching will be even more a strength this year, which I think will help the Royals as they figure out the right lineups.
Yeah, at this point, I’m not sure Jensen nor Mitchell are ready to be regulars in the big leagues this season. And even then, I think easing them in as backups is the way to go. It takes catchers a while to catch on just because of the demands. I agree with you about dealing Freddy. As good as he is, he could be starting for a lot of teams, and that should net us something in return.
I’ll be curious about Wiemer’s outlook. I am not as high on him because I worry about the whiffs but the power seems to be there and he’s athletic to really succeed in all three positions defensively. I would rather have given Waters another chance in RF and platoon him with Renfroe (which makes more sense because Waters is better against RH anyways). But, the Royals seem high on Wiemer and what he can do with the change of scenery.
Well, if your bullpen is pretty well spent, the starter surplus also gives you a two half approach to a game. Lets say you start the scheduled starter. Wacha, or Lugo… They know this and get into their secondarybofferings earlier with more effect, and rack their 90 pitches… and they’re out to the showers… And another starter comes in with a fresh arm, totally different look and 3 to 5 pitches to assimilate into in 4 innings.
If Freddy were as offensive as Salvi, it might be different. When Bench caught, there were a few goid hitting catchers. Ted Simmons, Manny Sanguillen, Carlton Fisk… They all hit around .300. All were all stars… But Bench also hit 40 HR regularly. Salvi brings that gsme-changing potential every time He takes the field. Fermin is a very good catcher and can hit. I see Mitchell and Jensen ready sometime in ’26. Both have All-Star potential. As I’ve stated before, I would see if one is open to playing 3b. Both are athletic and should be able to transition. The issue is “who has a higher ceiling as a catcher?” Why third? 1b is Pasquatch’s. Left field is where you hide your worst fielder and right field requires a canon for an arm. Plsying 3b is a bit like catching a wild sinkerballer. Lots of sizzling grounders.
On Weiner, I think he will be a platoon player with Renfroe. I also think we should platoon Ysbel. Let him hit against those he can and see if it develops into a better approach. May be get our two 4a outfielders to just hit for average and when they master that, they can dial up the power.
I like the idea of Mitchell or Jensen moving to hot corner. Both seem quite athletic and as you said, the skills needed to play third mirror what you do at catcher. Jensen seems to me to be the most likely as his defense rates behind Mitchell and I think Jensen’s bat feels like a better fit than Mitchell. Plus Jensen could be a third base option in ‘26, which gives Mitchell more time.
[…] teammate Seth Lugo, and Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase. Despite missing out on the nomination, the Royals organization paid him like an “ace” this offseason with an extension that would buy out most of his arbitration […]