Royals pitchers and catchers participated in their first throwing workouts in Surprise yesterday, an exciting sign that the MLB season is nearly upon us. The Royals will have their first team workout on Monday, February 17th, and participate in their first Cactus League game on February 21st against the Texas Rangers, their fellow Surprise complex partner.
As expected, with the start of Spring Training, Royals fans have many questions. Check out any Royals blog or podcast; there will be some “top questions” or “top stories” about Kansas City’s Spring Training outlook.
I am not above writing such pieces, as I pay attention to many things developing in Arizona, especially when Cactus League play begins. There are four stories that I am keeping a close eye on this spring in Surprise, as they could help develop not just the roster outlook but how the Royals will perform in a competitive AL Central division in 2025.
Let’s examine those four stories that Royals fans should pay close attention to during Spring Training in Arizona.
Battle for the Fifth Spot in the Rotation
With reports of shoulder tightness this offseason, it sounds like Alec Marsh will develop slowly this spring. According to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers, he hasn’t been shut down and is participating in throwing workouts. However, Anne mentioned that he may need some time before facing hitters in Cactus League play.
Even without Marsh, it sounds like the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation should be fierce.
Currently, the Royals rotation includes three “set in stone” starters and one “most likely” starter. That includes Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Michael Lorenzen (with Lorenzen falling in the “most likely” category).
In addition to Marsh, the following pitchers are expected to battle for a spot in the Royals rotation: Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, and Noah Cameron. The latter was most recently added to the 40-man roster this offseason, while Bubic and Lynch primarily pitched in the Royals bullpen in 2024.
Bubic and Lynch should have the advantage over Cameron simply because they have more MLB experience than Cameron and don’t have much to prove in the Minors. Bubic probably has the edge over Lynch this spring, primarily due to his stronger performance in 2024 and the higher rating of his pitch quality last season via TJ Stats.
That said, Cameron shouldn’t be slept on, especially considering how impressive he was in Triple-A Omaha last year. In nine outings and 54.1 IP with the Storm Chasers, the St. Joseph, Missouri native posted a 2.32 ERA and 23.8% K-BB%. His strike-generating and batted-ball data also rated pretty impressively via TJ Stats.
The main issue with Cameron is stuff, as his overall TJ Stuff+ was only 94 last year in Omaha, which is slightly below average. Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cameron start the year in Triple-A to help him build up his stuff before making his MLB debut. His curve, cutter, and changeup are on the verge of average pitches, but his four-seamer was rated sub-par (87 TJ Stuff+) a season ago.
Kyle Wright could also figure into the No. 5 mix, though it sounds like the Royals want him to take some time to get acclimated before returning to the big leagues. Wright hasn’t pitched competitively since 2023 due to recovery from shoulder surgery. When he did pitch with the Braves in 2023, the data wasn’t impressive.
Wright demonstrated an impressive curveball 2023 (103 TJ Stuff+ and 37.5% chase). However, the rest of his repertoire was rated as sub-par. It will be interesting to see if Brian Sweeney and the Royals’ pitching coaches can help him tweak his pitch quality and turn things around in 2025.
If so, the Royals could explore a six-man rotation with Bubic, Marsh, and Wright making up those two spots game-by-game.
What Does the Outfield Look Like?
The Royals certainly tried to upgrade their outfield this offseason. Even though they signed with other clubs, Kansas City was tied to Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, and Randal Grichuk in free agency. Unfortunately, Santander, Profar, and Grichuk signed with the Blue Jays, Braves, and Diamondbacks.
Some free-agent outfielders are still on the market, with Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, Adam Duvall, and Manuel Margot being the most prominent names. However, it is likely that if the Royals do sign any of these players, they most likely will be complimentary pieces, not everyday ones (with perhaps the exception of Verdugo).
I looked at these outfielders and their outlooks via Process+ in a thread on Bluesky yesterday.
With workouts just a few days away, though, I think the Royals will likely stick with their current roster, hoping to make a move in-season if necessary. Thus, there will be a lot of competition position-player-wise this spring, with the outfield being the primary battleground.
As of February 13th, Kyle Isbel may be the only outfielder whose role is guaranteed for 2025. However, he likely will be benched against left-handed starting pitchers. Dairon Blanco and newcomer Joey Wiemer could battle for that platoon spot on the Royals roster, with Wiemer sporting the best chance due to his better fielding ability in the outfield.
The corner outfield spots could be a lot more complicated.
According to Roster Resource, Hunter Renfroe is expected to play right field, and MJ Melendez will play left field on Opening Day (which was the case a season ago). However, when the Royals were pursuing Santander, JJ Picollo and his team discussed platooning MJ and Renfroe in right field, with Santander playing every day in left field.
Based on Process+ data, the platoon could make sense, though Renfroe didn’t show as much power as expected against left-handed pitchers in 2024.
The Royals may stick with this platoon, even without Santander, to ensure that Michael Massey and Jonathan India are in the lineup daily.
A move to left field could make sense for Massey, who missed time in 2024 due to a back injury. It’s possible that playing the outfield could help preserve his health a bit more, especially since outfield defense requires less back usage (i.e., bending over) than left field.
Massey’s bat certainly could play in left field, especially considering the production that the Royals received from the position in 2024. According to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 28th in LF wRC+ production with a 75 mark.
India could also play left field and give Massey a spell when he needs a day off. That said, it sounds like India will also explore playing second and third base with the Royals, in addition to left field.
Whether it’s Massey or India, Royals fans should expect a surprise in left field on Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium.
Non-Roster Invitees to Watch
Due to their prospect status, Jac Caglianone, Blake Mitchell, Ben Kudrna, and Carter Jensen may be the most high-profile non-roster invitees on the Royals Spring Training roster. However, while they may be fun players to watch, it is unlikely that they will compete for an Opening Day roster spot.
Three NRIs who could compete for a roster spot primarily stick out: utility players Cavan Biggio, Harold Castro, and pitcher Thomas Hatch.
I have written about Biggio and Castro before on this blog. They are intriguing players that could give manager Matt Quatraro more options off the bench. Of the pair, Biggio probably has the best shot to make the team, especially considering his positional flexibility and former prospect ped. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Castro make a run, especially after his strong performance in Venezuelan Winter League play.
Regarding pitchers, Hatch is an intriguing arm who pitched last season in the Nippon Professional Baseball League in Japan. Hatch doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s a groundball specialist, and his cutter is his best pitch via PLV metrics.
Hatch is a long shot to make the Opening Day roster, and he likely will start in Omaha to begin the 2025 season. However, the Royals found luck with another non-roster invitee, Sam Long. Perhaps Hatch could be a right-handed Long for the Royals bullpen in 2025.
Can the Royals Stay (Relatively) Healthy This Spring?
Injuries are part of baseball. Every season, a significant injury happens in the spring that changes the course of the season for that particular team. Last season, it was Lucas Giolito for the Red Sox. In years past, it was Eloy Jimenez for the White Sox. The best thing a team can hope for in Spring Training is to get through their Cactus or Grapefruit League campaign unscathed.
The Royals got lucky last year, as they didn’t experience many injuries in Spring Training or the regular season. That wasn’t quite the case in 2023 when they lost Bubic to an elbow injury and Vinnie Pasquantino for most of the year due to a shoulder injury.
Kansas City has already had some early injury issues, as James McArthur is expected to miss some significant time this season due to recovery from an elbow operation this offseason. How much time McArthur will miss is to be determined.
Thankfully, the Royals have done enough with the bullpen to absorb the McArthur loss. That said, what happens if an outfielder gets hurt in Spring Training? Or if Vinnie re-aggravates his shoulder? Or if Massey’s back issues follow him to the outfield? Or if one of the Royals’ big three starters (Ragans, Wacha, or Lugo) goes down before Opening Day?
A team can only prepare for so much when managing players’ health.
Hopefully, the Royals’ injury luck continues or isn’t too bad in 2025, especially in Spring Training.
Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Would bringing back Paul DeJong represent on upgrade at third over Garcia (and move him to a utility/bench role)?
I don’t mind DeJong coming back. However, I think he would be a platoon bat. In terms of upgrade, his whiff and chase numbers are kind of horrific. And we saw him really fall off a cliff at the plate after a strong start in Kansas City. At that point, I would rather give Biggio a shot and see what he can do.
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter writes about storylines to follow in spring training. […]