As many of you have seen, I have not written here for nearly ten days. That wasn’t intentional. I went through a bit of a medical emergency that put me out for quite a bit of time. It was a bit scary at the moment, but I’m glad I got what I needed to get over a pretty intense episode that started at the end of last week.
I’m still figuring things out personally, but I look forward to baseball season, especially the upcoming Kansas City Royals campaign. I will go to the Royals Rally on Saturday, which is always a good sign that Opening Day will be here sooner than we think. With everything going on personally, that image of Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium and the Truman Sports Complex is uplifting.
Speaking of uplifting, Royals fans got some optimistic news for the 2025 season with the club acquiring free agent reliever Carlos Estévez, who pitched last year for the Angels and Phillies.
The Royals significantly upgraded their bullpen at the Trade Deadline last season with the acquisitions of Lucas Erceg from Oakland and Hunter Harvey from Washington. They also received surprising production from Kris Bubic, coming off TJ surgery in 2023, and fellow lefty relievers Daniel Lynch IV, Angel Zerpa, and Sam Long. Furthermore, John Schreiber also returned to his April form down the stretch, which was huge for Kansas City in the regular season and postseason.
After being one of the worst units for most of the season, Kansas City’s bullpen was a club strength and carried the Royals in their Wild Card series win over the Orioles. They also did this without a healthy Harvey, who only made six appearances with the Royals in 2024 due to a back injury.
Harvey is expected to be 100 percent in 2025. However, JJ Picollo decided to get some insurance for Harvey and the bullpen overall by acquiring Estévez, a target at last season’s deadline who eventually went to Philadelphia.
The Royals signed Estévezfor at least two years with a third-year option. He is guaranteed to make at least $22 million over the next two seasons and could net an additional $13 million if the Royals exercise his option.
Considering the deals we have seen this offseason for other relievers such as Jose Leclerc, Ryne Stanek, and even Tommy Kahnle, the Royals got a fair deal for a proven closer who has been one of the better relievers in baseball since leaving the Colorado Rockies organization. Additionally, they didn’t have to give up any prospect capital in the process (which would’ve been the case had they acquired him at the deadline last year).
Of course, many questions surround Estévez’s arrival in Kansas City.
What kind of reliever are the Royals receiving? Is he trending up? Or is he trending down, like Chris Stratton and Will Smith a season ago? Also, what does this acquisition mean for Erceg, who was phenomenal in September and the postseason?
Let’s break down what Estévez did metrically, how he compares to other relievers on the Royals’ pitching staff (especially Erceg and Harvey), and what the outlook could be for him and the Royal bullpen in 2025.
What Do the TJ Stats Data Say?
Thomas Nestico, who runs the Patreon TJ Stats, created an app that produces pitching summary cards for each pitcher who threw in the Major Leagues last season.
Safe to say, Estévez produced impressive numbers between the Angels and Phillies in 2024.
Estévez’s surface level numbers are impressive: 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 55 IP. Furthermore, the Dominican-born pitcher also posted a K% of 23.6% and K-BB% of 17.9%, both solid numbers for a reliever. For context, the Royals last season ranked 26th in the league in K-BB% with a 12% mark, and only two Royals relievers who pitched 10 or more IP the previous year posted a K-BB% better than Estévez.
At the very least, the Royals bullpen gets a solid reliever who will throw strikes, get outs, and limit free passes on the basepaths.
Furthermore, the Royals also get a pitcher with a power-arm profile, based on the TJ Stuff+ data.
Estévez primarily relies on his four-seamer, which he threw 61.1% of the time a season ago. The pitch proved to be an impressive offering. The four-seamer averaged 96.8 MPH, had a TJ Stuff+ of 102, and a grade of 57. He also generated some good whiff numbers on the pitch (23%) and an impressive vertical break (17.1 IVB). Thus, it’s not surprising that he had a run value of +6 on his fastball in 2024, according to Savant.
Below is an example of Estévez’s impressive fastball demonstrating impressive velocity and movement, which causes Seattle’s Mitch Garver to swing and miss.
While the fastball is Estévez’s go-to pitch, TJ Stats data shows that his slider is his better offering.
His primary breaking offering sported a 111 TJ Stuff+ and 64 grade last season. Those were the best marks in those categories of any of his offerings. He also generated a 27% whiff rate and .250 xwOBA on contact on the slider.
Based on the pitch break chart above, he tended to leave the slider up in the zone a bit. However, it was a harder-breaking pitch (89.4 MPH) that paired well with his high-velocity fastball. Despite the questionable location, he could generate swings-and-misses or weak contact on the pitch because of its “less loopy” profile.
Here’s an example of Estévez hanging the slider, but Philadelphia’s Brandon Marsh cannot do much with the offering.
The changeup works quite similarly to the slider as a secondary pitch that he throws 10.4% of the time.
The offspeed pitch averaged 89.4 MPH and generated a zone% of 56.5% and whiff% of 37% despite sporting slightly below-average marks in TJ Stuff+ (96) and grade (50). That said, Estévez’s higher-than-average velocity on the pitch and ability to throw strikes with the pitch made it a consistent and effective offspeed pitch in 2024.
TJ Stats did indicate he threw a curve, but it was such a low usage rate (0.4%). Thus, it’s indeterminate if Estévez honestly tried to throw a curve last year or if those curveballs were mistakes on his slider.
Even though he has a simple three-pitch mix, it has proved to be an effective arsenal for him as a closer, especially over the past two seasons with the Angels.
What Does PLV Data Say?
PLV doesn’t rate his curveball and instead seems to lump those pitches with his slider. Nonetheless, the PLV metrics from Estévez’s three-pitch mix mirror his TJ Stats data in various ways, as seen in the chart below.
As with TJ Stuff+, Estévez’s slider rated as his best pitch with a 5.53 mark, with his four-seamer not far behind with a 5.20 mark. His changeup ranked as his worst offering with a 4.95 mark, just slightly below the league average.
Overall, Estévez’s PLV of 5.20 was impressive and fared pretty well compared to other Royals relievers who saw 9th-inning work last year, such as Erceg, Harvey, and even James McArthur.
Regarding the PLV breakdown of each pitch, specific positive trends emerge with all three pitches, as seen in the gallery below.
Based on the charts above, all three pitches sported above-average velocity and better-than-average induced vertical break and plvLoc+. Based on those trends, it’s unsurprising that his PLV numbers were so encouraging in 2024. In addition, he also had an intriguing pitch movement profile via PLV, with his slider and changeup sporting a smaller-than-typical gap from the four-seamer.
It’s hard for hitters to sit on the 96+ MPH four-seamer when he’s also throwing a breaking slider and dropping change that sports similar movement and a nearly seven MPH difference. Even if they made contact, hitters couldn’t do much, as evidenced by his .235 wOBA allowed.
Then again, Estévez did experience some batted-ball luck in 2024. He allowed a 10.1% barrel rate and a 90.1 MPH EV on batted balls last season. He also sported a .278 xwOBA, a 43-point difference from his actual wOBA. Thus, it could be a different story for him in 2025, especially if the balls find the gaps instead of the fielders’ gloves.
That said, the Royals sport a much better defense than the Angels, and Estévez has found success despite the high average exit velocities allowed in the past. Still, it would be nice to see if pitching coach Brian Sweeney and his team (helped by Zach Bove and Mitch Stetter) can help Estévez tweak the mix a bit to lower the average exit velocity and barrel rates allowed in the 32-year-old’s first season in Kansas City.
How Does He Compare to Royals Relievers On a Stuff+ End?
From Opening Day until the All-Star Break, the Royals bullpen sported the worst Stuff+ in the league with a 96 mark. After mixing up their bullpen in the second half, they ranked 22nd with a 102 mark.
Estévez gives the Royals’ bullpen another high-power arm, Stuff+ wise, to a group with a lot more upside than the group on Opening Day a year ago. His 112 Stuff+ would’ve been the second-best mark of any Royals reliever with 10 or more IP in 2024.
Estévez’s Stuff+ was better than both Harvey and Erceg last year. He also would’ve been tied with the best Pitching+ (which also includes Location+) on the team with Harvey.
In terms of other Royals relievers beyond those two, McArthur and Carlos Hernandez fare pretty similarly to Estévez in terms of Stuff+ (with Hernandez being better). Conversely, McArthur and Hernandez are far less dependable than Estévez, especially in high-leverage opportunities. They also could be long shots to make the Opening Day bullpen, which could spell the end for Hernandez in Kansas City (since he is out of Minor League options via Roster Resource).
Nonetheless, there is some sneaky bullpen depth on a Stuff+ end for the Royals, and Estévez only solidifies that more for the upcoming season.
What Will the Royals Bullpen Look Like in 2025?
The Royals bullpen on Opening Day was built to be a more “finesse” one in 2024. The strategy made sense, considering the Royals’ control and command issues from their relievers in 2023. Unfortunately, the group lacked guys with velocity and stuff, so hitters had their way with them until Erceg and Bubic arrived.
It’s a much different group now, as it seems like velocity will be the “story” of this group going into Spring Training, as highlighted by “Locked On Royals” host Jack Johnson in a Tweet shortly after the Estévez signing announcement.
Based on those velocity metrics, it’s easy to feel good about this group this season. Building depth has been something that not only Picollo has preached this offseason but also manager Matt Quatraro. With the addition of Estévez (and perhaps Michael Lorenzen, who could move to the bullpen if Alec Marsh or Kyle Wright steps up), they have that reliever depth to help them compete throughout an entire 162-game season.
In terms of role, it is a bit muddled for now as Erceg deserved to finish last season as the closer, and Estévez has been a proven one for the Rockies, Angels, and Phillies in his career.
Surprisingly, Quatraro has been more traditional than expected with bullpen roles, especially considering his Tampa Bay ties. He stuck with Scott Barlow for the most part in 2023 (until he was traded away). He also stayed with McArthur as a closer (despite his inconsistency) last season until they acquired Erceg. Thus, I could see Quatraro sticking with Estévez initially as the closer, especially since he is being paid to be the “guy” in the ninth.
Conversely, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Erceg more freely used as the bullpen’s “fireman” than an 8th-inning guy or setup man. Erceg thrived in high-leverage situations with the Royals, and I don’t think they want to take those opportunities away just yet.
Furthermore, Quatraro sometimes seemed to rely heavily on the bullpen, especially in close games or when the starters were chased out of a game early. Having someone like Erceg or even Harvey available to close out games when Estévez is unavailable is a huge boost, not to mention a luxury Quatraro hasn’t had in his time as a manager in Kansas City. Erceg and Harvey, available as emergency closers, allow the Royals not to let games get away from them in a given series.
The Royals won 86 games in 2024, which is impressive and a good step in the right direction after losing 106 games in 2023. However, considering the trajectory of the Central division, they may need to win more in 2025 to make it to the postseason. Detroit, Cleveland, and even Minnesota (if healthy) should all be improved (even the White Sox should be improved, even if it means another 100-loss season).
An improved bullpen with the addition of Estévez should help Quatraro and the Royals accomplish that goal this season.
Photo Credit: Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
[…] On Wednesday, he bolstered the bullpen by signing former Angels and Phillies closer Carlos Estevez to a two-year guaranteed deal with an option for a third season. […]
[…] who can pitch in the highest-leverage situations, regardless of whether it’s the ninth. Acquiring Estevez this offseason allows Quatraro to do just that, as Estevez has held down the ninth while Erceg is utilized more […]
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