The Royals have stayed pat on the hot stove since the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.
For some Royals fans, that may be infuriating, especially since the club should capitalize on the positive momentum built in 2024 after an 86-76 season and appearance in the ALDS. On the other hand, the Royals won in 2024 not solely on free agents but a combination of homegrown talent and shrewdly acquired veterans, especially on the pitching end.
Yes, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were Royals free-agent acquisitions who boosted the Royals’ performance a season ago. However, the Royals received mediocre production from free-agent relievers Chris Stratton and Will Smith and inconsistent performances from free-agent position players Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Hampson, and Adam Frazier.
Thus, it’s not necessarily bad to see Royals GM JJ Picollo show some restraint and continue exploring possible deals before pulling the trigger.
That kind of patience doesn’t exactly “engage” fickle Royals fans in the winter. That said, it prevents “over-eager” deals on players that fans will be complaining about in May and June (as was the case with Renfroe, Frazier, and Hampson, though they all had their moments of productivity in 2024).
The Royals will make some significant moves this offseason, especially on the position-player end (hopefully on that long-anticipated “middle of the order” bat). However, Picollo doesn’t need to rush into a deal, especially with some intriguing talent still available on the Royals’ 40-man roster, especially in the outfield.
In this post, the final of my Steamer projections series, I will look at the Royals outfielders and their respective offensive outlooks for the 2025 season.
My primary focus will be on Renfroe, MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, and Nelson Velazquez. They are Royals outfielders who could be either key to the Royals’ lineup next season or throw-ins to possible trades this offseason that could boost the Royals’ lineup in 2025.
Royals Outfielder Projections for 2025
The Steamer projections for Royals outfielders are less impressive than the projected metrics of Royals infielders and even catchers.
Of Royals outfielders, only two (Kyle Isbel and Melendez) are projected to produce an fWAR over one (Isbel 1.4 and Melendez 1.1). Steamer projects five Royals infielders to produce an fWAR over one (Witt, Pasquantino, India, Garcia, and Massey) and two Royals catchers to be above that one fWAR mark as well (Salvy and Fermin). However, that catcher sample in the Steamer projections was much more limited than the infield group.
Those fWAR totals demonstrate the proven depth the Royals have in the infield and behind the plate. Conversely, the lack of Royals outfielders with decent fWAR projections shows that the system needs to build its outfield depth. Kansas City did acquire some outfield depth.
One can wonder if that depth may look better at the end of the season if specific prospects make incremental process in Triple-A Omaha this season. That is especially true with Javier Vaz, Gavin Cross, and Tyler Gentry, three outfield prospects ranked in the Royals’ Top 15 via MLB Pipeline.
For a complete look at the Royals’ Steamer Projections for 2025, click on this link here.
Can MJ Melendez (Finally) Live Up to the Projections?
While Isbel leads all Royals outfielders with a 1.4 fWAR projection from Steamer, Melendez may have a higher ceiling next season.
In 115 games, Steamer is projecting Melendez to hit 18 home runs and produce a 0.40 BB/K ratio, .191 ISO, .320 wOBA, and 105 wRC+. Not only is his wRC+ the best-projected mark for Royals outfielders, but the same is valid for home runs and ISO. Even though he’s still projected to strike out a lot (24.7% K%), he can be a power-hitting corner outfielder who could boost the middle to bottom of the Kansas City batting order next season.
Even though Melendez’s Steamer projections are enticing, his actual metrics from last season and over his career have been disappointing.
Last season, in 135 games and 451 plate appearances, Melendez hit 17 home runs and posted a .194 ISO. The latter was a 31-point improvement from his 2023 season. However, his wOBA regressed from .310 to .282, his wRC+ went from 91 to 85, and his fWAR declined from 0.2 to -0.3. Those aren’t encouraging trends for Melendez, especially as he enters his age-26 season.
However, Preston Farr of Farm to Fountains at the end of the season alluded to another Royals draft pick who had lofty expectations, struggled initially, but turned it around at the MLB level and became a Royals fan favorite and legend.
There are two reasons to be optimistic about Melendez’s offensive outlook in Kansas City next season, should he still be on the roster (he’s been widely rumored as a trade candidate).
The first positive sign from last year is that his xwOBA was much higher than his actual wOBA. While Melendez did finish the season with a .292 wOBA, his xwOBA was .317, a 25-point difference. Furthermore, when comparing his wOBA and xwOBA rolling charts over his career, Melendez has demonstrated much more stability in his xwOBA.
Another encouraging development for Melendez is that he’s demonstrated solid Process+ trends over the past two seasons with the Royals.
The contact ability has been inconsistent, as evidenced by his below-average trends in his Process+ rolling charts in 2023 and 2024 (via PLV). Conversely, his power and decision-value trends have been solid over the past two years, which is not a bad profile for the Royals to have in the 5-7 hole in the batting order.
It’s easy to be impatient about Melendez and his long-term outlook in Kansas City, especially since he hasn’t taken the next step hitting-wise like Witt and Vinnie, two other Royals-developed players who played with Melendez in the Minor Leagues.
And yet, his optimistic Steamer projections and encouraging Process+ trends from the past two seasons could make Royals fans feel better about Melendez returning to the Royals outfield and lineup next season.
Is Hunter Renfroe Due for A Bounce Back in 2025?
The Royals signed Renfroe to a one-year deal with a player option for 2025, hoping the 32-year-old veteran outfielder could bring a power bat and veteran presence to the Royals clubhouse. The Mississippi State product seemed to accomplish the latter goal but fell short of the former in 2024.
Renfroe struggled with various injuries throughout the season, which affected his games played and production in 2024.
He only played 120 games and accumulated 424 plate appearances, his lowest numbers in those categories since the COVID-shortened 2020 season (he was with the Rays that season). In that 2024 injury-riddled sample, he hit .229 with 15 home runs, a .302 wOBA, and 92 wRC+.
His wRC+ was exactly his mark in 2023. However, his home run total and wOBA were significant regressions from the previous season with the Angels and Reds. To make matters worse, his .289 xwOBA demonstrated that Renfroe benefitted from batted-ball luck, not the inverse.
Here’s a look at his xwOBA from 2024, and notice how Renfroe hit some severe lows in xwOBA performance (around the .150 mark).
These concerning xwOBA trends illustrate that Renfroe’s 2024 season with the Royals could’ve been much worse than the surface-level metrics indicate. That is not a good sign since he produced a -0.1 fWAR.
On a positive note, Steamer seems optimistic about Renfroe’s outlook, especially on the hitting end.
In 86 games and 352 projected plate appearances, Steamer predicts that Renfroe will hit .244 with 13 home runs and produce a wOBA of .319 and wRC+ of 104. Based on the projected plate appearances, Steamer thinks Renfroe may be more of a regular platoon player in 2025. The Royals and Renfroe may mutually benefit from that role, especially if he can match his improved projection from his first season in Kansas City.
Based on his Process+ splits, it also seems like Renfroe may be better off facing left-handed starting pitchers more than right-handed ones. The Royals veteran outfielder showed much better trends in contact and decision value against left-handed hurlers last season.
The Process+ trends in both cases trended downward, but the LHP trend didn’t show a sharp decline like Renfroe’s RHP trend. Renfroe also maintained better contact against LHP than RHP as the season progressed.
Lastly, he barreled the ball more frequently in different parts of the strike zone last year against lefties than he did righties, based on zone chart data via Savant.
Thus, there’s a possibility that Renfroe could bounce back at the plate in his second season in Kansas City. It could be even more realistic if he stays healthy (which didn’t happen last year) and sees a more platoon role in RF in 2025.
Renfroe will be 33 in 2025, so the odds of a positive turnaround aren’t great. However, Royals fans shouldn’t throw in the towel on Renfroe just yet, especially if Picollo can find a fellow outfielder in free agency or trade who can split time with Renfroe against right-handed starting pitchers.
What Will the Royals Do With Drew Waters and Nelson Velazquez?
Waters and Velazquez came to Kansas City in Trade Deadline deals in 2022 and 2023, respectively. This is what the outfield pair’s metrics look like over the past three seasons via Fangraphs.
Waters played solely with the Royals organization over those three years, while Velazquez split time between the Cubs and the Royals. Defensively, Waters has been much better, which explains Waters’ fWAR advantage despite playing 57 fewer games than Velazquez.
However, Waters and Velazquez’s hitting metrics are similar over the past three years.
Velazquez holds an edge in wRC+ (97 to 91), wOBA (.307-.310), ISO (.221 to .167), and HR (31 to 13). Waters has been better in terms of average (.229 to .212), OBP (.306 to .286), and stolen bases (16 to 7). Thus, Waters provides the Royals a more complete outfield profile for the Royals, while Velazquez is more of the prototypical slugger. Both outfielders have strikeout issues, as evidenced by Waters’ 32.9% K% and Velazquez’s (28.8%) mark.
Waters didn’t play much in Kansas City last season, as he only appeared in seven games. Velazquez made the Opening Day roster and played in 64 games. Unfortunately, a June swoon happened, and he was demoted by the month’s end. He stayed in Omaha for the remainder of the season with Waters.
Their performances in Omaha in 2024 were a bit of a mixed bag, especially considering their age and familiarity with Triple-A pitching and competition.
Their wOBA zone profiles via Savant showcased a lot of promising development.
Conversely, their xwOBA zone charts were much less impressive, which makes sense in Waters’ case, as his wOBA (.376) was 47 points higher than his xwOBA (.329). Velazquez’s wOBA (.338) was seven points lower than his xwOBA (.345) in Omaha.
Steamer expects that Waters and Velazquez won’t have much of a role with the Royals in 2025, as Velazquez is projected to accumulate 127 plate appearances while Waters is expected to collect 86.
Despite the small sample size, the projected metrics aren’t bad.
Steamer projects Waters to hit .236 with a .302 wOBA, .144 ISO, and 92 wRC+ in 2025. Velazquez is projected to hit .229 with a .311 wOBA, .186 ISO, and 98 wRC+. Both are projected to post paltry fWAR marks (0.1), and their BB/K ratios are also mediocre (0.29 for Waters; 0.31 for Velazquez).
Waters has one Minor League option remaining, while Velazquez is out of Minor League options. Both made the cut at the non-tender deadline in November. Still, one has to wonder how much of an opportunity both will get in Spring Training, significantly if the Royals upgrade in the outfield via free agency this offseason.
That said, Royals fans should still be optimistic about their outlooks as platoon outfielders for the upcoming season. Waters provides a nice speed and defensive profile with the occasional pop, while Velazquez has proven that he can hit for power in Kauffman’s spacious dimensions.
In addition, the Process+ for Waters (from 2023) and Velazquez (last year) showcase some encouraging developments and trends.
Both hitters have major contact issues. That said, their decision-making actually showcased improvement throughout the season (20233 for Waters; 2024 for Velazquez), and the power tool also illustrates the upside both have as hitters at the MLB level.
Do I think Waters and Velazquez are everyday players in 2025? Most likely not.
Still, they provide some value as bench/platoon options, especially in the corner outfield spots, which are much less guaranteed for 2025 (i.e., Melendez and Renfroe).
It would make sense for the Royals to trade away Waters and Velazquez if it can help bring a proven outfield (or corner infield) asset to Kansas City.
If they can’t make that trade (or sign that free agent), Waters and Velazquez may be serviceable bench options for the Royals next season.
All they need is one last opportunity.
Photo Credit: Paul Sancya/AP Photo
I know I have banged the drum on these two, but Piccolo needs to tell these guys what is the expectation for an MLB hitter. .260+ batting average, .310 OBP maybe a power metric based on barrel rate as opposed to homeruns. If they want to be in MLB, they will adapt their approach, or ask to be traded. Waters could be a good bat if he worked with what is, not what Boras wants.
Agreed. I bet those conversations are happening or happening to a point. I still think Waters has some potential there to at least be a platoon guy. I thought he did some good things in Omaha last year and benefits this team in the field and on the basepaths. But, who knows, maybe the ship has sailed on him, or at least it felt that way with him getting snubbed for veterans like Pham and Grossman down the stretch.