After a “cold period” of Royals news after the GM Meetings, Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans broke some surprising trade chatter involving the Cincinnati Reds (whom Rosecrans covers) and the Royals.
The news came out of nowhere, especially after JJ Picollo mentioned that Singer was a “lock” in the rotation in 2025 in Anne Rogers’ latest newsletter. However, this trade makes sense when looking at the needs of both teams.
The Royals made some strides in hitting in 2024 after ranking 28th in wRC+ in 2023.
After the Royals offense posted a wRC+ of 86 in 2023, it improved to 96 last year. However, it still ranked 20th in the league, and a big issue for Kansas City was its ability to get consistently on base. They ranked 19th in the league in OBP with a .306 mark a season ago.
India posted a .357 OBP last season and a wRC+ of 108. His career OBP is .352, and his career BB/K ratio is 0.50. For context, the Royals’ BB/K ratio was 0.37, and only four Royals hitters with ten or more plate appearances had a BB/K ratio above 0.50 in 2024 (Nick Loftin, Yuli Gurriel, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Bobby Witt, Jr.).
Thus, India gives the Royals that on-base boost they’ve been looking for and at the top of the lineup. The 27-year-old second baseman has 1,292 career plate appearances at leadoff with the Reds. He would easily slide into the Royals’ batting order as the leadoff hitter, a position Picollo wants to fill this offseason.
For the Reds, Singer is coming off a stellar season that helped boost a Cincinnati rotation that ranked 16th in starting pitcher ERA and 23rd in starting pitcher FIP. Last season, the Royals’ 2018 1st round pick posted a 3.71 ERA and 3.93 FIP in 179.2 IP, a career-high. Singer’s IP total would have led all Reds starters a year ago, and his ERA would’ve tied for second with Andrew Abbott.
Will the Reds and Royals pull the trigger on a trade that would swap India for Singer? And if so, is this deal worth it for the Royals, who helped Singer produce a 2.5 fWAR in 2024 and 10.5 fWAR over his five-year career?
India Brings Plate Discipline, But Will Power Translate?
India was initially seen as the “face” of the Reds franchise, especially after he won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2021. He hit 21 home runs and posted a 122 wRC+ and 3.4 fWAR while cruising to the award that season.
Since then, his metrics have fluctuated a bit, which has contributed to him losing favor in the organization, especially with the arrival of Elly De La Cruz in 2023, who has thrived as the Reds’ version of Witt (albeit with less batting average prowess).
India posted a 0.2 fWAR in 103 games in 2022 and a 1.4 fWAR in 119 in 2023. He had a bounceback season in 2024, as evidenced by his 108 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR in 151 games. However, his batted ball power has long been a bit of a question mark, and his defense at second base hasn’t fared well metrically, though he did see a positive progression in Outs Above Average data last season.
Regarding India’s batted ball metrics, his average exit velocity ranked in the 17th percentile a season ago, and his 87.4 MPH career average exit velocity is 1.1 MPH below the league average.
According to Statcast breakdown data, his batted ball average exit velocity has often been below the league average in his four years in the big leagues (including last season).
His hard-hit rate trends were a bit more positive in 2024. India experienced some tough stretches when making quality contact in 2024, and his overall hard-hit rate of 36.5% declined by 2.1% from 2023. That said, he experienced some peaks in hard-hit rate that were much better than what he produced in previous seasons in Cincinnati.
In addition to seeing some growth in his ability to hit the ball hard in 2024, India continued to demonstrate the plate discipline that made him so heralded as a prospect in the Cincinnati system (he was drafted fifth overall in the 2018 MLB Draft out of Florida).
After a slow start last season and a bit of a dip at the beginning of June, his Process+ rolling chart jumped around the middle of that month and remained well above average in the power and decision value categories.
India’s Swing-Take data via Savant demonstrates how much the Reds’ second baseman improved from 2023 to 2024. Based on Swing-Take data, India was one run below average in 2023. Last year? That number spiked to +16.
Here’s how India’s respective Swing-Take strike zone charts looked from the past two years.
The most significant difference for India in 2024 was that he chased much less, corresponding to stellar results at the plate.
His chase rate last year was only 18.4%, which ranked in the 98th percentile of the league via Savant. Furthermore, he saw a 12-run difference in the chase zone from 2023 to 2024. That’s much greater than the run difference in the waste zone (+2), shadow zone (+3), and heart zone (+1). Thus, if Royals fans are looking for the primary reason for the 17-run difference overall from 2023 to 2024 for India, look no further than the results in the yellow chase zone.
One of the last remaining questions now with India is whether or not his power will translate from GAB, fondly known as the “Great American Small Park,” to Kauffman Stadium.
Now, Royals fans do have to embrace one clear point: Kauffman is a hitter’s park, based on Statcast Park Factors. It’s just not a home-run hitter’s park.
From 2022-2024, Kauffman ranked 4th in baseball with a 104-park factor. This is despite sporting a home run factor of 85, which ranked 27th. Thus, the spacious design of the K leads to many base hits, including doubles (114, which ranks 3rd) and triples (168, which is tied for second with Arizona).
What are the GAB’s Park Factors over those three years? They had a 105-park factor, which ranked third. Cincinnati’s home park had the highest HR factor at 128. However, their 2B factor ranked 13th at 100, and their 3B factor ranked 23rd at 79.
Hence, India will likely lose some home runs in a move to the K as his primary home park. His 42 xHR total at the K over his career was by far the lowest of any ballpark for India.
On the other hand, based on how his career HR spray chart played out at the K over his four-year career, I also think many of his hits would still go for doubles and triples at Kauffman. India’s HR spray chart fitted for Kauffman dimensions didn’t look as discouraging as I would’ve initially imagined.
This isn’t a situation like Hunter Renfroe, who was showing signs of decline and probably was helped by more HR-friendly ballparks before he arrived in Kansas City last season.
Instead, India is a budding power hitter still in his prime who showcases encouraging batted-ball metrics that could be a fit for Kauffman Stadium and its unique park factors.
Maybe he won’t be a 20+ HR hitter, but he could be a .300 average hitter with the proper adjustment. That and his disciplined approach would make him an ideal fit at the leadoff spot in the Royals lineup in 2025 and maybe beyond.
Can Singer Succeed in the Great American “Small Park”?
Singer stepped up in 2024 with the Royals after a subpar 2023 that jeopardized his standing in the rotation.
The right-handed former Gator (a college teammate with India) started 32 games in 2024 with the Royals, a career-high, and increased his K-BB% from 12% in 2023 to 15.2%. He also improved his CSW% from 27.9% to 28.4% and saw his hard-hit rate go from 48.4% to 41.7%.
However, there has been some concern with Singer that despite positive results, the Stuff numbers weren’t as impressive last season. This deficiency could make him susceptible to a move to Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, known for its super hitter-friendly confines.
Kyle Bland of Pitcher List also noted that Singer’s pitch arsenal didn’t fare well in PLV’s Stuff+ metrics (plvStuff+). However, he did note that his slider (134 plvStuff+) and sweeper (123 plvStuff+) were significantly more impressive than his sinker (42 plvStuff+) and four-seamer (67 plvStuff+).
His PLV arsenal metrics also seem to showcase that plvStuff+ trend.
His overall PLV improved from 4.86 in 2023 to 5.03 in 2024, a 17-point improvement. However, even though his sinker saw a 25-point improvement in 2024, it still lagged heavily behind his slider (5.22 PLV) and sweeper (5.65). His four-seamer, which he re-introduced in 2024 after throwing it sparingly from 2020 to 2022, wasn’t impressive on a PLV end at 4.78.
To Singer’s credit, he was able to blend the slider and sweeper well, which explains why they rated as his best pitches on a PLV scale. Notice in Singer’s movement chart below from 2024 how the sweeper’s pink dots and slider’s purple overlap heavily.
When Singer got the proper velocity difference on the two pitches (over 1.0 MPH), he made opposing hitters look foolish.
Below in the clip compilation is an example of Singer spinning the slider at nearly 84 MPH against the White Sox and the sweeper at 81 MPH against the Twins. That velocity difference helped Singer generate the whiffs he needed to accumulate strikeouts.
Interestingly enough, though Singer’s stuff on his fastball pitches underwhelmed, the Reds succeeded as an organization regarding their pitchers’ fastballs.
According to Stuff+’s Fastball+ metrics, Reds starting pitchers ranked 7th in baseball with a 103 Fastball+. They also threw fastballs 35.6% of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the league. Conversely, Royals starting pitchers ranked 17th with a 96 Fastball+ and 24th in fastball usage with a 27.5% mark.
The Reds could see something with Singer’s four-seamer and sinker and believe they can develop those two offerings to be effective overall weapons in his repertoire.
Singer saw modest growth in his fastballs in 2024. Perhaps new manager Terry Francona and Reds GM Nick Krall think they have the proper pitching development to help him take the next step with those two pitches (and explain why they’ve been targeting him since last season).
That would explain why the Reds are willing to give Singer a chance in Cincinnati over the next two years, even with Singer moving to a more HR-friendly home ballpark.
Final Takeaways on Possible India-Singer Deal
On paper, an India for Singer swap makes sense. The Royals need hitting, preferably at leadoff. The Reds could use more starting pitching, especially considering how volatile the rotation looks after Hunter Greene.
I’m curious how the financials will work on this deal, as they could be the main roadblock to this trade happening this winter.
The Royals clearly know what to expect salary-wise from India in 2025, as he is guaranteed $5 million after signing a two-year extension last offseason. He will have one more year in arbitration after 2025, but that amount could vary depending on how his 2025 season goes. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals negotiate an extra year or two when acquiring India to buy out that last year of arbitration.
Singer is under arbitration for the next two years, and no precise salary figure has yet been settled. MLB Trade Rumors projects that after his successful 2024 campaign, Singer will make about $8.8 million this offseason in arbitration. If he has a similar season in 2025, that amount will only increase significantly in 2026.
It makes sense that Picollo and the Royals would want to avoid these next two years of negotiations with Singer, especially after how difficult negotiations were before 2023.
However, Krall and the Reds probably understand that, too. Considering the Reds’ ownership has been more cost-averse than Royals owner John Sherman’s, it seems logical that the Royals would have to include something else in the deal with Singer.
Now, what would that additional piece in the package be?
Would it be a prospect like Gavin Cross or Carter Jensen? Would it be Michael Massey or Maikel Garcia, who would both be more expendable with the arrival of India? Would it be a starting pitcher prospect whom the Royals had some success developing in the Minors last season?
The Royals have many choices, and I guarantee Royals fans that for a deal with Cincinnati for India to happen, multiple pieces on both sides have to be dealt.
It’s just a matter of whether or not the pieces will fit for the Reds and Royals by Spring Training.
Photo Credit: Carolyn Kaster/AP
It seems like an overpay for a 1-1 trade of a Jonathan India/Brady Singer. It seems like Cincinnati needs to add to the pot. A 3rd starter that can accumulate 180-190IP pitched and not go on the IR is worth quite a bit.
I get that. At the same time, Singer is expected quite a pay increase. I think there is value to another team taking on that salary while the Royals receive someone who is more cost controlled. However, I do think other pieces from both teams will need to throw in other pieces for this deal to happen.
[…] Rumors started circulating earlier this week about a possible trade involving Brady Singer for Cincinnati second baseman Jonathan India, and I was able to analyze a bit on this blog. […]