The Royals’ pitching development at the Major League level has changed dramatically since JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro took over from Dayton Moore and Mike Matheny after the 2022 season.
For years, the Royals’ pitching, especially starting pitching, was a problem for the club.
Kansas City starting pitchers, whether from within the system or acquired outside via trade or free agency, failed to develop at the Major League level under Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred. Royals fans know about the losing seasons, including the 100+ loss seasons in 2018 and 2019 and the 97-loss season in Eldred and Matheny’s final season in 2022. However, the starting pitcher metrics were just as bad, if not worse, over those five years.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 27th in starting pitcher fWAR (31.3), ERA (4.96), FIP (4.72), and 30th in K-BB% (10.5%). Not many starters stood out over that period, as Royals fans can see in the Fangraphs table below (which includes Royals starting pitchers who pitched ten or more innings from 2018 to 2022).
Only five Royals starting pitchers accumulated a fWAR above 2.0 during that time. That includes Brad Keller (7.7), Brady Singer (6.1), Danny Duffy (4.8), Jakob Junis (3.5), and Mike Minor (2.3). Zack Greinke just missed that mark by 0.1 fWAR (1.9).
Of that group, only Singer is still with the Royals, and he’s also the only one signed to a Major League team as of November 15th (though Keller did sign a deal in the Nippon Professional Baseball League in Japan).
This year, under pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove, the Royals starting pitching has taken a 180-degree turn.
In 2024, the Royals ranked 2nd in fWAR (16.7), ERA (3.55), 4th in FIP (3.68), and 8th in K-BB% (15.9%). Not only did the Royals win 86 games and make it to the American League Division Series, Seth Lugo was named a finalist in the AL Cy Young vote, and Cole Ragans likely finished in the Top 5.
This year, the Royals had two pitchers who posted fWAR marks over 4.5 (Ragans and Lugo) and three more who posted marks over 1.0 (Michael Wacha, Singer, and Alec Marsh).
Sweeney and Bove have turned around the culture in the rotation, and the results have been positive.
So, who else could be the next success story for this Royals pitching development team in 2025?
It’s possible that Kyle Wright, who was acquired from the Braves last November (along with Nick Anderson), could be the next starting pitcher to benefit from Sweeney and Bove’s tutelage and further strengthen this Royals rotation next year and possibly beyond.
What Do the Royals Have in Wright?
The Royals acquired Wright from Atlanta as a short-term project for the pitching staff.
The 2017 fifth-overall pick from Vanderbilt underwent shoulder surgery in October of 2023 that would sideline him for the 2024 season. The Royals acquired him not necessarily to impact the club in 2024 but to be a pitching asset starting in 2025 who wouldn’t be a free agent until 2027. Furthermore, Wright’s lost year would keep his cost down in arbitration, as MLB Trade Rumors expects that Wright will earn around $1.8 million this offseason from the Royals. That is $1 million less than Kris Bubic is likely to make in arbitration this offseason and $7 million less than Singer.
Thus, if Wright bounces back on the mound in 2025, the Royals will not only have more depth in the rotation but also possess pitching prowess at an incredible value.
Of course, it’s been a rocky road for Wright at the Major League level, so he’s far from a sure thing next season.
In 60 games (51 starts) and 281.1 IP with Atlanta, Wright has a career of 4.45 ERA, 4.50 FIP, and a 1.9 fWAR. His breakout season came in 2022 when he made 30 starts, pitched 180.1 innings, and posted a 3.19 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 2.8 fWAR.
As you can infer from the 2022 stat line above, Wright has accumulated a -0.9 fWAR in 101 IP at the Major League level beyond 2022. Wright has struggled with the long ball in his career, as he sports a 1.25 HR/9 and had a 1.45 HR/9 in 2023 in nine outings and 31 IPs. He also has a career hard-hit rate allowed of 41.5%, which is five percent higher than MLB average, via Statcast.
Thus, Sweeney and Bove need to be able to not only tap into Wright to help him re-channel what went well in 2022 but also perhaps make the necessary modifications in his repertoire to increase whiffs (career 25.7% whiff rate), lessen walks (career 9.7% walk rate), and lower the hard-hits allowed.
What Does Wright’s Pitch Arsenal Look Like? (And How Can It Improve?)
Wright’s pitch mix was diverse during his time with the Braves. However, he underwent many changes, especially when determining his primary pitches.
Initially, Wright was more of a fastball-heavy pitcher, whether it was his four-seamer or sinker. However, he became more breaking-ball-reliant during his later seasons with the Braves. His knuckle-curve became his most utilized pitch in 2022 and 2023 via Savant.
The curve saw a tremendous spike in usage in 2022 and 2023, with 34.1% in 2022 and 47.3% in 2023. Conversely, the slider usage plummeted during those seasons as well. After throwing the slider 27.1% in 2021, he threw it 7.2% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023.
In a piece about Wright in 2022, Aram Leighton of “Just Baseball” highlighted that his switch to the curveball and emphasis on it as his primary pitch were vital to his breakout success that season.
Here’s a snippet from Leighton’s piece that illustrates that point.
Prior to 2022, Wright had gone to his curveball less than 15% of the time at the MLB level, leaning on his slider as his out pitch. The slider was effective in getting swings and misses at times, but also was a lightning rod for loud contact when he missed his spots with it.
Wright’s inconsistency with his slider largely contributed to his inconsistency overall and now in his fifth big league stint, we have seen the 26-year-old phase out the slider in favor for his new-looked curve.
Wright’s curveball is now his most used pitch with his slider being thrown the least. This isn’t the same curveball that Wright has flashed in previous seasons, hence the 34% usage. Wright has tightened up his curveball throwing it about 4 mph harder, while still maintaining plenty of movement.
Even though the curve became his primary weapon in the past two years, it hasn’t consistently demonstrated consistent pitch quality, which has correlated heavily with Wright’s uneven success in Atlanta.
Based on PLV pitch quality data from 2021 to 2023, many other pitches in Wright’s arsenal, besides the knuckle curve, experienced similar ups and downs in pitch quality over those three years.
The curve improved from 4.41 in 2021 (14% usage) to 5.23 in 2022 (34% usage). It did regress a bit in 2023 to 4.93 (48% usage), but it was still his best-rated pitch that year during that rough and short 2023 campaign (4.73 overall PLV).
To get a good sense of his curveball development, let’s look at his PLV pitch-type charts of the offering from 2021 to 2022.
The quality change on the pitch is genuinely remarkable. In 2022, the curve became a higher-velocity offering with less vertical movement, more arm-side break, and much better location, as demonstrated by his 25-point difference in plvLoc+. As a result, the pitch saw a 0.80-point improvement, which is a significant jump.
Here’s a look at two curveballs from Wright: one from 2021 and one from 2022.
As Royals fans see, Wright’s 2022 curveball is thrown 2.7 MPH harder and is not as “loopy” as the 2021 version. The 2022 curveball also seemed to blend in better movement-wise with the rest of his arsenal, which made it more challenging for opposing hitters to pick up, explaining the increase in put-away rate from 2021 (zero) to 2022 (27.8%).
Here’s a look at the movement profile of his arsenal from 2021 and 2022 via PLV.
There is still a gap movement-wise between his curve and the rest of his pitches in 2022. However, the gap is not as comprehensive as in 2021, and there’s less of a gap between the slider and other fastball offerings (four-seamer and sinker). That movement profile was a key to Wright’s success and explained why he did a much better job limiting hard contact in 2022 (41.1%) compared to 2021 (55%).
Now, let’s look at his movement profile from 2023.
Interestingly enough, the curveball increased up to the middle of the X-Y movement chart. Thus, it seemed like he was trying to channel the same kind of movement from the curve in 2023. Unfortunately, the results and other factors didn’t translate as effectively.
The curveball had only 6.1 inches of break, down from 9.4 in 2022. Furthermore, the vertical break on the curve was only 9.9, a 0.2-inch difference from the previous season.
Here’s a look at his curveball from 2023 in a May 3rd game against the Marlins in Miami.
Based on the eye test, the 2023 curveball is more similar to the 2022 version than the 2021 one. It may just be a bit too hard without enough movement.
When Wright didn’t locate it effectively, it often led to poor results. The pitch saw an increase in xSLG from .323 in 2022 to .387 in 2023.
Thus, the curveball command will be important in 2025 for Wright, especially if he wants to secure a regular role with the Royals pitching staff.
Can a Cutter Help Wright’s Arsenal?
Wright’s issue has been that his fastball pitches haven’t been effective at the Major League level.
According to Statcast run value, the four-seamer combined to produce a -17 run value in 2022 and 2023, while the sinker combined to produce a +4 run value. While the sinker doesn’t seem bad at the surface level, it had a +12 run value in 2022 and a -8 run value in 2023, showing the massive decline in pitching results in his last year in Atlanta.
Here’s the pitch quality data of his four-seamer and sinkers from 2023 via PLV.
The plvLoc+ numbers aren’t wrong, as they are barely below the league average. However, the PLV data on the pitches are mediocre. Movement-wise, neither pitch offers much upside.
He can locate the pitch well and showed glimpses of that in 2023 before he injured his shoulder. Below is a clip compilation from 2023 of his four-seamer and sinker. When commanded effectively, the pitches sport enough movement to generate consistent whiffs or soft contact.
Conversely, something needs to bring the four-seamer and sinker together with the curveball. Yes, Wright does have a changeup, but due to the pitch’s movement profile, that may be better paired with the sinker.
The four-seamer and curve can be an effective fastball-breaking ball combo for Wright. However, a bridge pitch between the two offerings could help make both more effective results-wise in 2025.
The slider doesn’t seem to be that pitch, and Wright has eased off his usage, as he only threw it 1.5% in 2023. A cutter, on the other hand, could be that nice bridge between the four-seamer and curve. A cutter shares the characteristics of both pitches, thus making it a more challenging offering for opposing hitters to pick up. Even if they connect with the pitch, the cutter can generate less productive contact, making it an adequate pitch to keep hitters honest.
An example of a starter who uses the cutter effectively is Seth Lugo, who also threw the curveball as his primary pitch in 2024. In the chart below, notice the movement profile of Lugo’s cutter.
Lugo is a pitcher different from Wright, who has a few more years of experience in the big leagues than Wright. That said, Lugo tweaked his mix enough in Kansas City to help him achieve tremendous results.
Wright adding a cutter to be that bridge between the four-seamer and curve could not help him make those offerings more efficient and sport better quality. Furthermore, it could also help his overall arsenal and, as a result, achieve results in 2025 similar to what he produced in 2022 in Atlanta.
What Should Be Wright’s Role?
The main question remains with Wright: his role with the Royals in 2025.
I think Wright will get every opportunity to earn a spot in the rotation in Spring Training. However, if Brady Singer remains on the Royals’ roster, the chance to capture a starting rotation spot out of camp in Surprise will be limited and slim.
That’s not a knock on Wright. It’s simply the reality of a Royals pitching staff that is deeper than ever and does not include any potential free agents who may be added to the roster this winter before pitchers and catchers report in February.
Even if Wright doesn’t find a spot in the starting rotation out of Spring Training, Wright could be an effective reliever who could fit various roles. He could fill in as a long reliever who could fill in as a spot starter, like Michael Lorenzen a year ago in the second half (after being acquired at the Trade Deadline).
Or, with the right pitch mix change, he could be an effective option in the late innings.
Yes, Wright doesn’t have as much experience in the late innings as other options currently in the Royals bullpen.
However, another failed starting pitcher who didn’t have much experience in the bullpen but found success in 2014 and 2015 with the Royals?
None other than Wade Davis, who was once a highly-touted starting pitcher prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The main difference between Davis and Wright is that Davis was more fastball-heavy. However, Davis had that cutter as a bridge pitch between his four-seamer and knuckle curve, which helped him experience tremendous success in the bullpen.
Let’s see what Wright can do with a pitch arsenal tweak and possibly adding a cutter in 2025 with the Royals.
Maybe he’ll start to get on that “Wade Davis”-esque track in the Kansas City bullpen.
Photo Credit: Stephanie Scarbrough | AP
With five pitches, tberes little growth to be made on the variety front. IMHO, the next variable in creating deceit on the hitter is arm-slot. He is an overhead pitcher, because that adds slope to his pitches’ angle of attack and further narrows the window for effective contact. IF he were to slot at 3/4, or sidearm, not only would the pitch not originate where the hitter expects it, but because of the applied momentum it might break distinctly different. In hitting, the hitter has about to where the ball is halfway to home to swing. The more time he spends spotting the arm, then the grip/ball, then figuring out where to swing at… The more hastily and prone to failure he will be. I think it was Ted Williams that said that Hitting is all about timing… Pitching is about upsetting timing”. Luis Tiant would throw at you his entire Arsenal over the top, three-quarter and sidearm. If Wright were to achieve that, he would have 15 different looks to baffle the hitter.
I would not be surprised if his fastball and slider begin to be used as a 3/4 delivery waste-pitch until it becomes reliably effective.
Interestingly enough, he has made that arm slot adjustment over the past couple of seasons. According to Savant, his arm angle went from 37 degrees in ’21 to 29 degrees in 22 to 27 degrees in 23. I’ll be curious to see what his arm angle looks like when he pitches again. I think that was key to his success in ’22, but I wonder if injury issues hurt him in the arm angle adjustment in ’23.
Considering he’s a breaking-ball first pitcher, I gotta imagine his arm angle approach will continue to adjust toward a more 3/4 approach.
I brought up Tiant, because after an arm injury in the 1960’s, he had to learn again how to pitch effectively.
In the same at-bat, Tiant would throw from all three slots, forcing hitters to either guess where he was pitching at and deal with the speed issue separately, or try to read-react and have to hurry their swing.
Arm slot, angle of attack, placement on the runber… Anything a pitcher can do to make the hitter take longer in deciding to swing, or not, will impact his timing. There are throwers, and then there are pitchers. Throwers overpower. Pitchers just make you look foolish. Wright could profit from,that approach.
I totally get that. And think mixing things up is good and we have seen Cueto do that in a modern day fashion. I just worry about arm angles and that being a tell and gimmicky. It may work in small stints, but eventually your stuff is what matters at end of day
Well, Cueto has a “near-balk-hitch” in his delivery and little else. Tiant was a pitcher worthy of study on how to maximize potential and/or extend a career. Much like Jamie Moyer… And Tiant, was from an era of 300 inning/year starters and double digit complete games. A completely different approach to pitching than what we see in this era of diluted talent. Back then, with 16 teams even the 7th hitter was a pain, and three solid starters was assumed and expected.
Initially, it might be finicky, but as the pitcher gains confidence in results, it becomes integral to the repertoire. Also, the pitcher can begin using it on “waste pitches” in pitcher counts to set up the next pitch by sowing doubt in the hitter’s mind. One more thing to track. One thing I have noticed is that a lot of natural athletes fail to learn their sport until it is too late. Wright would do well to explore strategies and tactics that may extend his career.
IMPO, today’s game is based on the quality start. A quality start is 6+ innings allowing three or less runs. In order to “win” a team has to allow 4 earned runs or less and score four or more earned runs. There appear to be fewer quality pitchers, but that is not so. They are spread over almost twice the number of teams. This affects offenses too. I actually saw George Brett play winter ball for Mayaguez. The 1970’s was a decade of thirdbasemen Brett was good, but there were Mike Schmidt, Tony Perez, Sal Bando, Brooks Robinson, Pete Rose, Wade Boggs and Joe Torre. Finding a 3b player who hits .260-.280+ with 25 HR and an OBP above .300 should not be that hard. But it is. I would recommend converting one of our two good catching prospects into a third baseman. Worth hiring a good instructor to teach how to field and play the position.
From that perspective, I get that. I think Wright’s a pitcher who is more than willing to be open to new things. He went to Vanderbilt which is a good academic school and they run their program like a pro team. He strikes me of having a similar profile to Bubic, who came from Stanford and seemed to embrace analytical thought and make changes accordingly. I could see Wright doing the same, if he hasn’t begun that process already.
I am curious about moving one of the catchers to third, which as you said, is not very deep right now around the league. To the Royals credit, they have done a good job of drafting athletic catchers who probably can transition off the position if needed. Jensen and Mitchell are already there. Ramon Ramirez could, but would like to see him in full-season affiliated ball before making that call. I think the Royals infield instructors are solid, so I’m confident that if they make those positional changes, they will be fine.
If I had to pick, Jensen might be my choice. His bat could benefit from playing the slightly less strenuous 3b. That leaves Fermin and Mitchell at c, Ramirez al the minors, and Salvi at DH. Fielding the position will depend on his footwork and reflexes.
Same. The reports on Mitchell’s defense are really good and don’t want him to move off just yet. Jensen has been discussed as a candidate to move off C for a while, so maybe a move to the hot corner this Spring could happen.
[…] was acquired from Atlanta before the 2024 season, along with Nick Anderson, in a deal aimed to bolster the Royals’ lackluster pitching staff […]