Apologies for not being able to post the past couple of days. On Tuesday, there were much bigger things on my radar (and the radar of all Americans). With the election fervor behind us (hopefully), I can focus back on analyzing Royals baseball (hopefully) both here on this blog and on Twitter (always will be, Elon).
On Monday, MLB announced the finalists for the Silver Slugger awards, which go to the top hitter at each position in the American and National Leagues. Two Royals, shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr., and catcher Salvador Perez were nominated as finalists for the award at their respective positions.
Witt and Salvy certainly had seasons to remember on an individual end. Both played in the All-Star game, with Witt coming up one home run short in the Home Run Derby to the Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernandez.
In addition to their appearances at All-Star weekend in Arlington, Salvy posted a 3.2 fWAR, tied for a career-high (he also had that same mark in 2013), and Witt generated a 10.8 fWAR, a career-best and the top mark of Royals players from last season. Witt will likely finish in the Top-3 in AL MVP voting, which is an honor for the Royals franchise player and net Kansas City an extra draft pick in the 2025 MLB Draft.
Based on those credentials, one would initially think that Salvy and Witt could be on track to collect some silver hardware on November 12th, when the award will be announced.
Let’s look at the complete data profile, via Fangraphs and PLV Process+ rolling charts, of Salvy and Witt’s 2024 campaigns and how they compare to other Silver Slugger candidates.
Bobby, the Favorite at Shortstop
Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson and Texas’ Corey Seager were both named finalists for the Silver Slugger Award along with Witt. Going into the 2024 season, it seemed like Henderson, Seager, and Witt were all around the same offensively.
However, by the conclusion of this year, Witt had done his fair share this season to distance himself from those two on the hitting end.
Let’s look at all qualified AL shortstops via Fangraphs and notice where Witt ranks in wRC+ compared to Henderson, Seager, and other qualified shortstops in the American League this season.
Witt, Henderson, and Seager rank 1-2-3 in that order in terms of wRC+. Furthermore, Witt’s 168 wRC+ not only leads all AL shortstops but is also 13 points ahead of Henderson, who ranks second.
That is quite the noticeable gap, especially between high-profile younger players like Witt and Henderson (who both faced off in the AL Wild Card this year).
Henderson led all AL shortstops in home runs with 37. However, Witt led in nearly every other offensive category last season.
Of qualified AL shortstops, Witt ranked first in runs scored (125), RBI (109), SB (31), ISO (.256), average (.332), wOBA (.410), and xwOBA (.413). That’s not just dominance from Bobby at his position but pretty much a “Roman Triumph” (as Bill Tweed eloquently put it in the movie “Gangs of New York”).
Witt was also the most consistent of the three in terms of Process+ trends throughout the season, according to PLV rolling chart data. Here’s a glance at Witt, Henderson, and Seager’s rolling Process+ chart data from last year.
Seager saw better trends in Process+ from June onward. However, his chart was mainly driven by his power, with only slight positive contributions in decision value and contact ability at specific periods during the year (mainly in August).
Henderson seemed to be on pace with Witt at the beginning of the season. Unfortunately, he hit the skids a bit in June and never seemed to catch back up with Bobby. As a result, his Process+ rolling chart is the least impressive of the three, though that shouldn’t take away Henderson’s All-Star campaign with Baltimore.
Henderson and Seager had excellent offensive seasons, and that shouldn’t be dismissed by any means. Their wRC+ marks of 155 and 140, respectively, reflect that. Those marks could’ve netted them the Silver Slugger in any other season.
Unfortunately for those two, they played in the same season and division as Witt, a player who is not only trying to add a Silver Slugger to his Gold Glove Awards this offseason but perhaps also snatch the AL MVP away from the Yankees’ Aaron Judge.
Salvy Race Closer, But He Is Still the Favorite
Salvy will compete with three other candidates for the Silver Slugger Award at catcher: Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, Oakland’s Shea Langeliers, and Houston’s Yainer Diaz.
Here’s how qualified AL catchers fared this season via Fangraphs data. As Royals fans see in the table below, Salvy stands out offensively among AL catchers, as Witt did with fellow AL shortstops.
Salvy is a little behind in wRC+, as his 115 mark is two points behind Raleigh and Diaz. He also is third in home runs behind Langeliers (29) and Raleigh (34). Conversely, the Royals captain looks much better in nearly every other offensive category.
The Venezuelan-born Royal leads all qualified AL catchers in RBI (104), SLG (.456), wOBA (.335), and xwOBA (.362). Thus, Salvy proved to be a more well-rounded offensive catcher statistically than other Silver Slugger nominees, who were more one-dimensional (power for Raleigh and Langeliers; batting average for Diaz).
The Process+ rolling chart data from all four catchers also confirms this notion.
All four hitters struggled with their decision-making at the plate (look at how far the purple columns go down on their respective charts). However, Salvy’s Process+ chart was the only one that didn’t dip below the 100 average mark at any point in the season. That couldn’t be said for the other three, who dropped below that 100 benchmark at least once in 2024.
On hitting alone, it’s a tough race, and the case for Raleigh winning the Silver Slugger can undoubtedly be made.
Raleigh had the best barrel rate of qualified AL catchers with a 15.1% mark. Conversely, his BABIP was only .251. This depressed number contributed to his xwOBA being 24 points higher than his .323 wOBA. With a little more batted-ball luck, it’s possible that Raleigh could’ve made his average and other metrics more palatable.
Then again, regarding Statcast batted ball data, Raleigh wasn’t alone in hitting the ball hard and seeing better results in his expected stats. Salvy also showcased a solid ability to barrel the ball and generate high exit velocity on batted balls a season ago.
The xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA advantages for Salvy could make a difference in the American League Silver Slugger race at the catcher position.
Raleigh has belted a lot of home runs and produced solid batted-ball stats. Still, the fact that it doesn’t carry to the expected stat categories like Salvy could hurt the Mariners catcher with more analytically inclined managers and coaches who will be voting.
Furthermore, Salvy has the respect of many managers and coaches across the league. The buzz and applause he received around the league after winning the Roberto Clemente Award for the first time in his career illustrated how beloved he is in Major League Baseball.
Expect Salvy’s buzz and widespread respect to positively impact him and his chances of collecting a fifth Silver Slugger award.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki
Witt is without doubt a rare talent at SS. He is in the same level as Chipper Jones, Larry Bowa, Ozzie Smith, Maury Wills. Bat and glove guys of extraordinary quality. As he gains more experience, he’s liable to get even better.
Salvi is a very good offensive catcher, who will be losing some bat speed to age, and how he copes with that will define his case for HOF consideration.
For sure. The jump he’s made from year 1 to now has been incredible. When looking at his metrics, it’s amazing how head and shoulders he was last year over Henderson and Seager. The fact that the Royals have him long term gives them what they need to be competitive for a long time.
I will be interested to see how his skills age, especially hitting ones. I think Q has been smart to limit and manage his innings behind the plate, as I think that toll kinda hurt him in the postseason. I think the more first base and DH he plays, the more likely he will be able to maintain his solid power and bat speed, especially since he will be dealing with less wear and tear from catching.
[…] discussed their candidacy in a previous post and felt good about Witt and Salvy’s outlooks for winning their first and fifth Silver Slugger […]