Every offseason, the Royals (and other MLB teams) must make tough decisions with their 40-man roster.
With the Rule 5 Draft during the Winter Meetings in December, Kansas City must protect specific prospects in their system from getting selected by adding them to the 40-man roster. Conversely, that usually results in some players being released from the current 40-man roster, often resulting in them finding another organization in the following season.
Sometimes, Royals players are released because they haven’t precisely developed as hoped. Sometimes, it’s due to a lack of opportunity, even if they have shown flashes of promise at the Major League level. Regardless, the Royals have had to non-tender players every offseason to make room on the 40-man roster.
On occasion, it has resulted in those players finding success in other organizations, much to the chagrin of Royals fans. Ryan O’Hearn, Gabe Speier, and Collin Snider are recent examples of players who were released from the 40-man roster only to break out after they left Kansas City.
In this post, I will look at four Royals players on the 40-man roster who could see their tenures in Kansas City end this offseason, especially if JJ Picollo and the Royals front office are aggressive this winter, protecting more prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.
Nick Pratto, 1B/OF
Pratto’s time with the Royals seems to have been dwindling for quite a while. That got even clearer in September after Vinnie Pasquantino’s thumb injury in August.
After news of Vinnie’s injury and stint on the IL broke, I figured Pratto would replace him on the active roster.
After all, Pratto was the primary first baseman in Omaha, had MLB experience (from 2022 to 2023), and would be the left-handed power bat Kansas City needed at first base. Furthermore, Pratto had been rated as a better defensive first baseman than Pasquantino in the Minors, and Pratto flashed some production at the plate at the start of the 2023 season.
Unfortunately for Pratto, Picollo opted to pick up Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers and sign a 40-year-old Yuli Gurriel to a Minor League deal to replace Vinnie’s production in the lineup.
Those moves demonstrated that Picollo and the Royals didn’t have much faith in Pratto’s outlook, especially down the stretch as they worked toward clinching a postseason berth.
The Royals front office’s lack of confidence in Pratto made sense. In 115 games and 490 plate appearances with the Storm Chasers this season, he hit 16 home runs but had a K% of 30.4%, a batting average of .242, and a wRC+ of 91. That’s pretty lackluster for a former top prospect and first-round pick in his fourth stint in Triple-A (though he did have some memorable moments, including in the Triple-A postseason).
Furthermore, the MLB numbers haven’t been great either for Pratto.
In 145 career MLB games and 527 plate appearances, the 26-year-old has a career wRC+ of 79 and fWAR of -0.9. His career BB/K ratio is 0.24, and ISO is .149. With the Royals, Pratto has struggled to make consistent contact, hit the ball hard for his position (39.6% career hard-hit rate), and provide positive value on both the offensive and defensive end.
With a healthy Vinnie back in 2025, it seems less likely that Pratto will find a spot on the MLB roster next season. Additionally, Pratto is out of Minor League options, which means the Royals can’t keep him in Triple-A to begin the season. He must be on the active roster on Opening Day in 2025 or designated for assignment, which would clear his roster spot.
Thus, it makes sense for the Royals to do the latter sooner rather than later, especially if they want to add a bat via free agency this offseason.
Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Bowlan has been an intriguing arm in the Royals system.
The Royals drafted the former Memphis Tiger in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft, the same Royals draft that included selections such as Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch IV, and Kris Bubic. While Singer, Lynch IV, and Bubic have logged many innings at the Major League level, Bowlan has only 5.2 MLB innings on his resume.
In three MLB appearances (including two starts), Bowlan has a 7.94 ERA, 11.86 FIP, and -0.3 fWAR. It’s a small sample size, so one can’t say this stat line is exactly who Bowlan is at the Major League level. However, he’s struggled to transition some of his strengths in the Minors to the Big Leagues.
The 27-year-old righty was known for his impeccable control in the Minor Leagues. From his full-season debut in 2019 (in Low-A Lexington) to 2022, the lowest K/BB ratio he had at any stop in the Minors was 5.85, which was High-A Wilmington (the Royals’ affiliate at the time). He also threw a no-hitter that season, the second no-hitter in Wilmington history.
Unfortunately, injury derailed his projection as a prospect in 2021.
He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 after only four starts with the Double-A Northwest Arkansas Naturals (he posted a 1.59 ERA in 17 IP). He was able to return in 2022, but his 6.92 ERA in 39 IP with the Naturals indicated that he was still experiencing some growing pains in his recovery.
That was the same issue in 2023 with Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, as he posted ERA marks of 7.20 and 5.24, respectively. The K/BB ratio with the Naturals did improve from 1.76 in 2022 to 3.62 in 2023. However, he struggled with home runs (1.80 HR/9 in 2023), and his K/BB ratio was only 1.81 with the Storm Chasers.
Nonetheless, with the Royals clearly out of it at the end of the 2023 season, Bowlan made some appearances down the stretch and shined in those appearances.
The Royals had Bowlan start the 2024 season as a starter. In 78 IP, he posted a 5.31 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.62 K/BB, and 5.06 FIP. Unfortunately, that didn’t earn him much consideration with the Royals, especially since starting pitching was such a strength of the club in 2024.
As a reliever, the results were more promising. In 32 IP, he posted a 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 5.40 K/BB, and 3.04 FIP. Even though Evan Sisk was the primary closer for the Storm Chasers down the stretch, it was common to see Bowlan utilized in many high-leverage situations, especially in the postseason.
The Royals may give Bowlan a shot to prove himself in Spring Training and see if he can snag one of the final spots in the bullpen. After all, Will Smith will be a free agent, and though Chris Stratton has a player option, the Royals could pay his option and release him, knowing that he may not be a significant bullpen contributor at this point in his career.
That said, there seems to be more competition for bullpen spots in 2025 than in 2024, which makes the likelihood of the Royals keeping Bowlan around low.
Plus, the Royals need to add arms in Luinder Avila, Chandler Champlain, and Noah Cameron this offseason (to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft), and those pitchers have Minor League options, a luxury that Bowlan will not have in 2025.
Nelson Velazquez, OF
To be transparent, I am a massive Velazquez fan and want him to succeed in Kansas City.
After coming over from the Cubs, his 17-HR heater in 53 games in 2023 was something to behold as a fan and Royals STM. During a lost season in 2023, Velazquez made it worth it for Royals fans to come to the park because they knew there was a high likelihood that he would crush balls out of Kauffman Stadium.
There was hope that Velazquez could be a regular RF or DH for the Royals in 2024 and beyond. In 40 games and 147 plate appearances with Kansas City in 2023, he hit 14 home runs and produced a 129 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. Nelly’s defense wasn’t great, but his bat seemed more than enough to justify regular playing time in 2024.
Unfortunately, things didn’t click for Nelly at the plate this season.
In 64 games and 230 plate appearances, his HR total dipped to 8, and his wRC+ and fWAR fell to 76 and -0.5, respectively. His power decline in 2024 could be credited to his inability to barrel and launch the ball consistently. According to Stacast data, his barrel rate went from 21.4% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2024, and his LA Sweet Spot went from 31.3% in 2023 to 29.9% in 2024.
That said, his rolling Sweet-Spot chart over his career started to show declining trends toward the end of 2023, which seemed to transition into this past season.
Thus, based on his Sweet Spot data, Royals fans should have expected Velazquez’s regression this season.
Conversely, though the power wasn’t there, he did show some improvement in his decision-making and approach at the plate in 2024.
He improved his BB/K ratio from 0.26 with the Royals in 2023 to 0.31 in 2024. Furthermore, his Process+ rolling chart shows that he was solid this year in the decision value category (which measures ball-strike decision-making). His power started coming around when he was demoted to Omaha.
Even though I believe in Nelly as a fan, it’s evident that the Royals aren’t as optimistic. Velazquez didn’t see any at-bats with the Royals in September, and with Hunter Renfroe likely exercising his player option this winter, Nelly will not have much opportunity for at-bats this spring in Surprise.
Furthermore, the Royals want to sign a corner outfielder to help boost the offensive production in 2025. That is a sign that Kansas City doesn’t believe Velazquez can help in that department and that he could be one to go if they sign that corner outfielder in free agency this offseason.
Nelly had a fun run with the Royals in 2023, and maybe, if the Royals can’t find a satisfactory option on the market this offseason, he may get one more shot to prove that he can be at least a platoon option at the MLB level.
Unfortunately, he is out of Minor League options, so his roster flexibility is limited, hurting his chances of being on this Royals Opening Day roster in 2025.
Carlos Hernandez, RHP
Hernandez is another favorite of mine. After a slow start in 2024, he took a strong step forward as a reliever.
In 27 appearances and 30 IP, Hernandez posted a 3.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.50 FIP, and 0.2 fWAR. He still struggled with walks, as he had a 4.80 BB/9 and 1.69 K/BB ratio in 2024. However, those categories were much better in the second half, as his BB/9 was 3.93, and his K/BB ratio was 2.38 after the All-Star break.
Despite his control issues, Hernandez was one of the few Royals relievers who could pump gas last season. When he could locate the fastball properly, opposing hitters had difficulty making contact. That can be seen in this strikeout of Detroit’s Jace Jung at the K in September.
Hernandez doesn’t have a vast pitch mix, though he did see some improvements in the quality of his repertoire from 2023. Based on his PLV arsenal data, he showed excellent pitch quality on his four-seamer and his curveball in 2024.
Hernandez’s slider and splitter weren’t great pitches, producing PLV marks of 4.97 and 4.44, respectively, which is vastly below average. Thus, to be more successful, he will either need to change up the mix (throw the curve more and slider less) or perhaps make some adjustments on the slider and splitter in terms of grip and spin to make them more compelling offerings.
The dilemma is this, though: With no Minor League options remaining, is it worth it for the Royals to continue this development process with Hernandez in 2025?
The Royals have big arms with potential in Steven Cruz, James McArthur, Avila, and Champlain. Avila and Champlain pitched in Triple-A last year and could be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Furthermore, the Royals know what they have in Hernandez: an arm with a big fastball and not much else.
Instead, the Royals should give Bowlan a chance to see if he can turn into something as a reliever. He hasn’t gotten nearly the chances that Hernandez has gotten at the MLB level, and Bowlan has at least shown the ability to command the strike zone better than in the Minor Leagues.
If the Royals have to take a chance on one “project” without Minor League options, they should select Bowlan over Hernandez for that role.
This means that Hernandez’s tenure with the Royals could be over this offseason.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports