Seven Royals players from the 2024 40-man roster will become free agents this offseason. It is expected that most, if not all, of the players from that group likely won’t be back in Kansas City in 2025.
Here’s the list of Royals players who will enter free agency after the conclusion of the World Series, when the offseason officially begins for players.
- Will Smith, LHP
- Michael Lorenzen, RHP
- Tommy Pham, OF
- Garrett Hampson, UTL
- Paul DeJong, SS/3B
- Robbie Grossman, OF
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B
Adam Frazier, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe could become free agents this offseason. That depends, though, on whether or not they opt into their player option (as in Renfroe and Wacha’s case) or if the Royals should exercise a club option on the player (Frazier has a mutual option where there is a buyout if the Royals do not want him to return).
The list of seven pending free agents isn’t precisely an eye-popping group that will command much in free agency.
While they all contributed to the Royals’ remarkable 86-76 season in 2024, the seven free agents are also veterans on the downswing of their respective careers. It is unlikely that anyone from that group of seven will receive more than a one-year deal from any club this offseason, with some possibly not receiving one at all, depending on how the market shakes out.
However, there are two free agents from that list who Royals fans should consider more seriously and watch this offseason: pitcher Michael Lorenzen and outfielder Tommy Pham. Lorenzen was acquired at the Trade Deadline from Texas, while Pham came to the Royals in September after being waived by the St. Louis Cardinals.
In this post, I will focus on Pham, his performance in 2024 (especially with the Royals), and why he could be a positional and financial fit for a 2025 Royals squad looking to return and go deeper in the postseason.
Looking at Pham’s 2024 in Kansas City
Overall, this year was a bit of a subpar season for Pham in his age-36 season.
Pham played 116 games between the White Sox, Cardinals, and Royals, and in 478 plate appearances, he hit .248 with a .297 wOBA and 91 wRC+. His home run total went from 16 between the Mets and Diamondbacks in 2023 to only nine in 2024, and his subpar defense (8.5 runs below average in Def via Fangraphs) contributed to him posting a -0.1 fWAR, the lowest mark in his career.
His numbers solely with the Royals weren’t great either last season.
In 23 games and 104 plate appearances with the Royals, Pham hit .228 with a .255 wOBA and 59 wRC+. His BB/K ratio was 0.11, 29 points lower than his ratio with the White Sox and 33 points lower than his ratio with the Cardinals.
His Process+ rolling chart, which takes into equation his power, decision-making at the plate, and contact ability, also regressed heavily at the end of the season when he transitioned with the Royals. His contact and power were the two areas that particularly suffered in the last month of play.
His defense slightly improved with the Royals, as he was 2.6 runs above average on the Def end via Fangraphs. That was better than his -2.3 mark with the Cardinals and -8.6 mark with the White Sox. Unfortunately, he still posted a -0.1 fWAR with the Royals in 2024.
Thus, at the surface level, it seems easy for the Royals to part ways with Pham, especially since he will be 37 years old in 2025.
His batted-ball data paints a more optimistic picture of his time in Kansas City.
According to Statcast metrics, during his time with the Royals, he produced an average exit velocity of 90.9 MPH on batted balls, a barrel rate of 8.1%, and a hard-hit rate of 51.4%. That was better than his 88.4 MPH EV, 5.7% barrel rate, and 41.5% hard-hit rate with the Cardinals, as well as his 90.7 MPH EV, 7.2% barrel rate, and 39.9% hard-hit rate with the White Sox.
Furthermore, while his wOBA was .297 overall in 2024, his xwOBA was .323. That demonstrates that he ran into rough batted ball luck, and the contact quality was much better than the results illustrated last season.
When comparing his wOBA and xwOBA rolling charts from last season, he had similar declines at the end of the season (which came in Kansas City).
Conversely, his xwOBA chart showed more positive trends and performance at or above the league average than his wOBA chart. This difference demonstrates that Pham’s season could’ve looked rosier if his batted ball luck (.232 BABIP in St. Louis, .292 BABIP in Kansas City) had been inversed (and it was in Chicago, as he had a .330 wOBA with the White Sox).
Pham certainly didn’t end his tenure in Kansas City with a positive production (though he did have a solid game four against the Yankees in which he collected three hits).
However, when looking at the complete picture, especially regarding batted-ball quality, Pham didn’t show much signs of slowing down in 2024. He could be due for a positive regression in 2025 with an entire offseason knowing where he will play in Spring Training (which wasn’t the case last season, as he didn’t sign with the White Sox until April 16th).
How Would Pham Fit On the Royals Roster?
Based on Picollo’s comments about the outfielder in his end-of-season press conference, the Royals seem committed to MJ Melendez in some capacity in 2025. This is despite Melendez posting an 85 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 135 games and 451 plate appearances last season.
On a Process+ end, Melendez struggled toward the end of the year, much like Pham. However, while Melendez had some higher peaks than Pham during the season, especially in the power department, he also saw much more inconsistency than the 36-year-old right-handed outfielder.
Melendez sports some of the same kind of batted ball quality as Pham. Melendez had an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH, a barrel rate of 8.3%, and a hard-hit rate of 45%. As a result, his .317 xwOBA was 35 points higher than his actual wOBA in 2024.
That is a similar trend to Pham. Furthermore, when looking at the wOBA and xwOBA rolling chart data from a season ago, Melendez saw many of the same differences at periods between his wOBA and xwOBA. However, Melendez finished the season more productive than Pham did in both categories.
The Royals could benefit from platooning Pham and Melendez in left field next season. Pham seemed to handle left field the best in Kansas City, as he posted a +2 OAA at that position via Savant. Though MJ improved defensively in 2024, his -6 OAA in left field still paled to Pham’s defensive performance last season.
Thus, Pham could give the Royals some veteran insurance at the corner outfield spots in 2025. In addition, he wouldn’t cost the Royals a lot, as his market value in free agency is expected to be around $2.5 to $3 million via Spotrac.
The Royals can bring back Pham on a one-year deal and still have financial flexibility to improve their position player roster via free agency.
Also, Pham can be the necessary insurance in the outfield for the Royals if Hunter Renfroe (who likely will opt into his player option) has another down year or if Melendez doesn’t make the necessary improvements in 2025.
Will the Royals Look at Other Internal Options Instead?
While Pham won’t break the bank, it may not be in the Royals’ best interest to bring Pham back, even in a platoon role off the bench for next season.
The Royals have some outfield candidates on the 40-man roster who may deserve another look or need a more extended chance at the Major League level in 2025.
On the 40-man roster, outfielders Drew Waters, Tyler Gentry, and Nelson Velazquez still have years of club control and have all shown flashes of potential, both in Omaha and at the Major League level.
Gentry and Waters still have Minor League options for 2025, so the Royals don’t necessarily need to promote them anytime soon. However, Velazquez doesn’t, which means the Royals will need to either give him a shot at redeeming himself in 2025 after a down 2024, or they must designate him for assignment by Opening Day.
Velazquez had a tremendous 2023 with the Royals after coming over from the Cubs for Jose Cuas at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, he saw his wRC+ go from 132 in 179 plate appearances in 2023 to only 76 wRC+ in 230 plate appearances. He also saw declines in batted ball quality, as his barrel rate went from 21.4% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2024, and his hard-hit rate dipped from 48.2% to 38.1%.
However, when looking at his Process+, Velazquez seemed stunted by a slow start to the 2024 season. Based on his Process+ trend, he started to see some progress before being sent down after a cold stretch in July.
Contact is still an issue for Velazquez; his power had ups and downs in 2024. His barrel rate was still the fourth-best mark among Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances. He also seemed to hold his own in Omaha in September, as I felt he deserved another shot in the big leagues amidst the Royals’ offensive struggles during that same time.
Nonetheless, with zero Minor League options remaining and questionable defensive metrics (he had a -2 FRV in 2024 via Savant), the Royals may find more value in a “proven” option in Pham over a “wild card” like Velazquez. Furthermore, Pham’s bat tracking data, especially regarding his “squared-up” percentage, fares more favorably than Velazquez.
According to Savant, Pham finished second of qualified Royals hitters in squared-up rate (on a swing percentage). On the other hand, Velazquez finished 16th, ahead of only Robbie Grossman and Paul DeJong, who likely won’t be back in Kansas City next year.
If the Royals want to be more frugal or realistic with their free-agent options, signing Pham and maybe another mid-tier free-agent outfielder could be a better strategy, though that probably would be it for Velazquez with the Royals. Pham isn’t an everyday guy at this point in his career, but he will provide a necessary boost off the bench and will still be on a competitive team battling for a playoff spot.
On the flip side, if the Royals want to make a bigger splash, letting Pham go and trusting Velazquez for now (or Waters or Gentry) until they sign a higher-profile free agent could be a better strategy this offseason for Picollo, especially if he doesn’t believe a long-term outfield situation exists on their 40-man roster right now.
Regardless, the Royals have options in the outfield and are in a much better spot than last season.
Pham’s return to Kansas City is probably 50-50. That said, whether they bring Pham back could give fans a glimpse of what kind of winter this will be for the Royals as they gear up for another postseason run in 2025.
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina USA TODAY Sports
[…] In my last post, I discussed Tommy Pham and why the Royals may consider bringing him back on a one-year deal for the upcoming 2025 season. […]
[…] wrote about some Royals becoming free agents this offseason this past week, with Tommy Pham and Michael Lorenzen being the focus. I hope to write about the Royals’ 40-man roster this […]