The Royals dropped game one of the ALDS to the Yankees on Saturday night, losing 6-5 in a game with five lead changes. It is the first postseason game in MLB history where that number of lead changes occurred.
Unfortunately, Kansas City came up on the losing end of MLB Postseason history in this one and now faces a 1-0 deficit to the Yankees in the best-of-five series.
The Royals scored five runs in game one, two more runs than in the previous two AL Wild Card games combined. Unfortunately, the pitching staff, which was nails against the Orioles in the AL Wild Card, allowed eight walks against the Yankees. That included five from the Royals bullpen, which had been incredibly dependable in September and against Baltimore.
It also didn’t help that the Royals were on the wrong end of many umpiring breaks in game one.
That included the Royals pitching getting squeezed in some key spots (including a 2-2 missed strike call that ended up resulting in a run), as well as a stolen base by Jazz Chisholm Jr. that should’ve been overturned in the eyes of many Royals fans (and even Bob Costas and Ron Darling, who were commentating the game).
Despite the “coulda, woulda, shoulda” of game one, the bottom line is that the Royals are down 1-0 to the AL East champs and the AL’s No. 1 seed. The Yankees only need two more wins to clinch this series and head to the ALCS, so the pressure is on Kansas City to steal game two if they want to guarantee at least two games at Kauffman Stadium in the ALDS.
While the loss was frustrating from a Royals fan’s perspective, it certainly was a better and more promising result than game one of the ALDS between the Tigers and the Guardians for Detroit fans. In that contest, the Tigers lost 7-0 and didn’t show any offensive life, which is not an encouraging sign considering they are facing the best bullpen in baseball statistically.
Therefore, should Royals fans be optimistic that game one is a sign that this young Royals group can compete with this Yankees team and steal this series, including game two on Monday?
Or was game one a squandered opportunity for the Royals to steal momentum in the ALDS?
Signs of Optimism for the Royals
The Royals have been starving for offense for a while, and on Saturday, they seemed to get it, although from unexpected sources.
MJ Melendez broke out in game one after a quiet series in Baltimore and a rough September (.502 OPS). He not only had two hits, but he also had a huge two-run home run that gave the Royals an early lead.
The bottom of the Royals lineup seemed to surprise in critical situations, which hasn’t always been the case for the last month.
Tommy Pham hit a clutch sacrifice fly in the second inning, which got the Royals on the board. Yuli Gurriel worked the Yankees pitching staff hard, as he drew two walks and garnered a single. Garrett Hampson, maligned by Royals fans for most of the year, came up big on the biggest stage, hitting a two-RBI single while pinch-hitting for Kyle Isbel.
As Royals fans, we have been begging for offensive output beyond Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt, Jr., and Vinnie Pasquantino. The Royals got that in game one, and Matt Quatraro seems to have found his leadoff man in Michael Massey, not just for the remainder of the postseason but for 2025 as well.
Unfortunately, the Royals didn’t get much from the heart of their lineup, specifically Bobby, Vinnie, and Salvy. All three hitters went 1-for-14 combined in game one, and Bobby and Vinnie ended up coming up short in the top of the ninth with the Royals down by one.
Considering how much those three have carried the Royals offense this year, it is unlikely that they will be that bad again in any other games in the ALDS, regardless of how long it goes. Bobby, Vinnie, and Salvy will get their hits and produce runs in some fashion.
If the Royals, though, can continue to see production from the bottom of the lineup in this series, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals pull off the upset thanks to an uptick in hitting, especially at Kauffman Stadium, where their hard-hits should find gaps (not as easy for Yankees outfielders to cover ground at Kauffman compared to Yankees Stadium).
Reasons to Be Concerned Against New York
While Royals fans can chalk up Bobby, Vinnie, and Salvy having off games, one could say the same for Aaron Judge, who looked overwhelmed in game one against the Royals’ pitching staff. The MVP favorite went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, which only fueled the fire among Yankees fans that Judge shrinks in the postseason.
Juan Soto had three hits, but he didn’t score any runs. Additionally, Giancarlo Stanton also went 0-for-4, much like Judge. Being able to neutralize the power of those three Yankees hitters was a victory for the Royals pitching staff in game one.
In addition, Judge, Soto, and Stanton were also mowed down quickly in the bottom of the 8th against Royals closer Lucas Erceg. That should give hope to Royals fans that the Kansas City bullpen can be successful against the Yankees when throwing strikes.
However, the Royals can’t give up eight walks again, especially since it’s unlikely that the Yankees will go 2-for-13 again in another game this series. The Kansas City bullpen has to limit the free passes on the basepaths. Unfortunately, this group did rank 18th in BB/9 this season, so there is a history of this bullpen getting erratic at times.
Thus, just judging by the numbers, it seems more likely that the bullpen will continue to struggle with control than the Yankees hitters will struggle with runners on base.
That makes losing game one feel even more like a missed opportunity. The Royals seemed to catch a confident Yankees team by surprise in game one in the Bronx, and Kansas City couldn’t take full advantage and pull off the win.
Unfortunately, opportunities like that don’t come often, especially on the road and against teams as impressive roster-wise as the Yankees.
Can Ragans Be a Stopper in Game 2?
In my post on Saturday, I pondered whether Michael Wacha could help set the tone for this Royals team in game one. He only went four innings and allowed three walks, which drove up his pitch count and led to him getting pulled early (a decision I wasn’t in complete agreement with, especially since Angel Zerpa, a reliever who’s been inconsistent in high-leverage situations this year, was the pitcher tabbed to replace him).
However, based on his CSW and exit velocity metrics via Statcast, Wacha did what he was supposed to in game one of the ALDS.
Wacha limited the hard contact from Yankees hitters and did an excellent job garnering swinging and called strikes. Unfortunately, he seemed amped in his 2024 playoff debut and often missed up in the zone with his fastball and offspeed pitches.
That kind of command inconsistency isn’t what a pitcher wants to do against a team as patient as the Yankees. According to Fangraphs, New York had the highest collective walk rate in the league as a group of hitters, with a 10.8% mark.
Cole Ragans must be more pinpoint and efficient with his command if he wants to help the Royals steal game two in the Bronx.
Thankfully, Ragans has a history of doing so against the Yankees this year. In his last outing against New York in Yankee Stadium last September, he went six innings and struck out seven batters. He only allowed two runs on three hits and three walks on 100 pitches.
Here’s a look at Ragans’ pitch type and pitch description charts from that outing, which was a no-decision for the Royals ace.
Ragans did an excellent job of flooding the strike zone in that one, though much like Wacha’s game one outing, he didn’t generate a lot of chase from Yankees hitters. Ragans had the same CSW% as Wacha (29%), but he generated a slightly lower O-Swing% (26%) than Wacha on Saturday (26%).
Yankees hitters whiffed 56% of the time on Wacha’s changeup and 36% on his four-seamer on Saturday. Ragans leans on those two pitches as his two primary offerings. That said, Ragans’ four-seamer rates a lot better than Wacha’s on a PLV end, and his arsenal sports a better movement profile that blends better than Wacha’s pitch mix.
Here’s an example from that September 11th game where Ragans sequenced his changeup and four-seamer effectively against Stanton, getting him to strikeout in back-to-back at-bats (first on his changeup and then on his four-seamer).
Suppose Ragans can command his changeup and four-seamer effectively on Monday. In that case, Ragans should rack up the strikeouts and log a decent number of innings in game two (hopefully, a quality start to give the Royals bullpen a bit of a break).
However, if Ragans’ command falters?
Then it could be another long night of work for the Royals bullpen on Monday, which will only hurt Kansas City’s chances of returning to Kansas City with a 1-1 series split.
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