The Royals lost the series finale against the Pirates on Sunday, 4-3, in a game in which the Kansas City pitching staff walked six batters.
It was a disappointing end to what was an encouraging weekend in Pittsburgh.
The Royals won the first two games by a combined score of 13-4. On Sunday, they had their chances to break the game wide open and finish the road trip with a sweep of a reeling Pirates team. Unfortunately, the Royals struggled with runners in scoring position today, leaving ten baserunners stranded.
Despite the deflating finish to the road trip, there were many positives to take away.
The Royals went 3-3 against the Yankees and Pirates this week, keeping them 2.5 games up on the Twins for the second Wild Card spot and five on the Tigers for the final Wild Card spot. The hitting remains inconsistent, but we have seen better spurts lately from the lineup, which contributed to the Royals outscoring the Pirates 17-8 in the weekend series.
Maikel Garcia had a solid weekend, highlighted by a two-hit performance today that included an RBI double that gave the Royals the lead in the 4th inning.
The Royals remain in good shape to clinch a postseason berth.
According to Fangraphs, even after their Sunday loss (and the Tigers, Twins, and Guardians wins), the Royals’ odds of making the postseason are 97.5%. Depth Charts on Fangraphs projects the Royals to finish the season 89-73, which is better than the projected record of the Twins (85-77), Mariners (83-79), Tigers (82-80), and Red Sox (82-80).
A lot has to go wrong for the Royals to miss out on the postseason. Furthermore, while the schedule isn’t a cakewalk, finishing the year against teams like the Giants and Nationals, already preparing for next season, is not the worst thing in the world.
That said, the Tigers’ upcoming visit to Kansas City is a series that feels like a “must-win” for a Royals team looking to punch their ticket to the postseason officially.
The Tigers are one of the hottest clubs in baseball. They just took two of three from the Baltimore Orioles in Detroit and have been one of the best clubs in baseball since early August, as their PR team shared this week on Twitter.
The pitching has primarily been led by Tarik Skubal, who seems to be the favorite to win the AL Cy Young. While I believe Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans will receive Cy Young votes, it is hard to imagine either leapfrogging Skubal in the coming weeks.
Furthermore, Reese Olson, who’s been on the IL, is rumored to return on Monday, which should significantly add to their rotation down the stretch.
Furthermore, the return of Riley Greene and Parker Meadows to the lineup has given the Tigers an offensive boost, and they’ve seen some addition by subtraction, with Javy Baez hitting the IL on August 23rd. Baez has posted a -0.7 fWAR this season in 80 games, the worst mark of any Tigers position player.
The Tigers seem to be a team trending in the right direction. That is scary for Royals fans who are nervous that Kansas City may not clinch a postseason berth, especially with their unpredictable offense since Vinnie Pasquantino’s thumb injury.
A promising sign is that the Royals will bring their best-starting arms to the three-game series against the Tigers.
Another encouraging aspect of this series is that the Royals have taken care of business against the Tigers this season. The Royals are 7-3 against the Tigers and have had significant success against them at home this year.
When the Tigers visited Kauffman from May 20th to May 22nd, Kansas City swept Detroit and outscored them 26-9 in the three-game series. The Tigers had Greene in that series and trotted out Olson, Mize, and Skubal. All three pitchers are expected to pitch against the Royals this week.
Even if the Royals lose all three games against the Tigers, the Royals have already won the season series. So they hold the tiebreaker, which puts more pressure on the Tigers to do well outside of their series in Kansas City. That won’t be easy, especially with them visiting Baltimore immediately after they play in Kauffman.
A lot has to go wrong for the Royals, and a lot has to go right for the Tigers for Detroit to “jump” the Royals in the postseason race. Honestly, the Twins are probably more worried about the Tigers than the Royals, especially since the Twins finish the year with road trips to Cleveland and Boston and then finish off the year at home against the Orioles.
Nonetheless, the Royals could put many fans at ease by winning at least two of three against the rival Tigers at the K.
Next weekend, the Giants series will be fun for nostalgia, with it being the 10th anniversary of their World Series matchup.
However, for now (until the series against Atlanta), the next three games will be the most important ones of the season for this Royals team, which has already done so much to surpass expectations this year.
Clinching a winning season with two weeks to go is something not many, if any, Royals fans were expecting at the beginning of the season, especially coming off a 56-win campaign.
There’s no reason for the Royals to stop surprising people now.
Not Giving Up Yet on McArthur
Royals reliever James McArthur had a rough weekend, as he only recorded one out on Saturday and loaded the bases before being taken out in the bottom of the eighth for Kris Bubic.
Thankfully for McArthur and the Royals, Bubic got out of the jam by striking two Pirates batters out in a row.
Despite his struggles, I remain optimistic about McArthur and what he can bring to this Royals bullpen in 2025 and beyond.
However, he needs to make some changes and adjustments, especially to his repertoire.
In my latest post for “Farm to Fountains,” I suggest that adding a cutter could help improve his curve and slider, which have seen significant declines in effectiveness this season.
Here’s what I say about adding a cutter and how the pitch can help his arsenal in the long term.
Incorporating a cutter could be the bridge pitch between his sinker and his breaking arsenals. As seen in the induced movement profile of his arsenal this year, it’s easy for a hitter to distinguish between his fastball and breaking stuff due to the difference in movement. Having a cutter, a bit of an “in-between” pitch, gives another offering in his arsenal that makes him harder to scout.
It would be a shame to see McArthur let go this offseason and find success in another organization, which we have seen this year from former Royals relievers like Collin Snider with the Mariners and John McMillon and Anthony Veneziano with the Marlins.
For a further breakdown of McArthur’s struggles this year and why the cutter can complement his current four-pitch mix better, check out the post on “Farm to Fountains.”
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Photo Credit: AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar