The Royals finished their highly-publicized 20-game gauntlet 9-11 after an extra-inning 4-3 loss to the Yankees in the series finale on Wednesday night. While it would’ve been more encouraging for the Royals to at least go .500 during this tough stretch, they did hold their own despite losing Vinnie Pasquantino to a thumb injury.
Kansas City has a travel day on Thursday as they gear up for a weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are 70-76 and have declined a bit after a surprising start to the season. After going 48-48 in the first half, they have been 22-28 in the second half, highlighted by an 8-19 August that pretty much has sunk their postseason hopes.
Nonetheless, this Pirates team’s strength is its starting pitching. The Royals will miss Paul Skenes this weekend, but they will still face Mitch Keller and Jared Jones, who have faded recently but can still shut down a lineup in a given outing.
The Royals’ starting pitching has carried this team in Vinnie’s absence, and the bullpen has done well, minus a couple of bad outings here and there (the first game against the Yankees being the primary one).
On the other hand, the hitting has not performed well over the past two weeks.
According to Fangraphs, over the past 14 days, the Royals rank last in wRC+ with a 53 mark. Even though the Royals have a nice cushion in the AL Wild Card race, that hitting performance will only make the postseason race closer than it needs to be.
Here’s how the Royals hitters have fared individually over those 14 days.
As Royals fans can see, only three hitters have been over the 100 wRC+ mark: Pham, Renfroe, and Grossman. That said, Renfroe and Grossman have less than 20 plate appearances each over the past two weeks, and the Royals have more hitters with negative wRC+ marks (DeJong, Frazier, Hampson, and Loftin) than ones with 100 or over marks.
Hence, it hasn’t been a good stretch for these Royals hitters, and one has to wonder if Matt Quatraro and JJ Picollo are looking for someone on the roster to help give them a jolt.
Surprisingly, one of those options could be Nelson Velazquez, who’s in Omaha and has the profile that the Royals bench may benefit from.
Why Velazquez Can Help
I admit I already wrote about Velazquez a couple of weeks ago. However, when I wrote that post, the Royals claimed Pham and Grossman off waivers and signed Yuri Gurriel to a free-agent contract. Thus, it looked like Velazquez (and Nick Pratto) were the odd men out and would miss out on the Royals’ sprint to the postseason.
While I have given up on Pratto’s outlook for the remainder of this season (and with this Royals organization), I am still bullish on Nelly and what he can bring to this lineup. Pham has solidified himself as the Royals’ leadoff man, but Grossman and Gurriel are only occasional pieces, and there is still a need for some power off the bench, which is severely lacking with Vinnie on the IL.
Velazquez has caught my attention in the past two games in Omaha against the Toledo Mud Hens, the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate. He has hit three home runs over the past two days, raising his home run total to seven, his average to .235, and his OPS to .780 at the time of this writing.
It’s not just that Velazquez has hit home runs but that they have been absolute tanks, as I wrote about on Twitter this evening.
Two solid games don’t automatically mean Velazquez is fixed as a hitter, especially considering the talent gap between Triple-A and the Majors. However, when looking at Nelly’s approach and Statcast data in Triple-A and comparing it to other hitters in Omaha on the 40-man roster (Pratto, Tyler Gentry, and Drew Waters), he seems like he’s made some proper adjustments since being sent down on June 24th.
Of that group, he has the lowest K%, the highest BB%, the best xwOBA, the highest average EV, and highest hard-hit rate. Even though his surface-level stats may not be as impressive as other hitters in Omaha, his skill metrics demonstrate that he may have a better chance of returning to Kansas City and finding immediate success, especially since he has 615 career MLB plate appearances, including 230 this season.
With the Royals this year, he was only hitting .200 with a .280 wOBA and 76 wRC+. He also had a -0.5 fWAR, though that wasn’t helped by his lackluster defense (according to Fangraphs’ Def, he was 6.6 fielding runs below average).
That said, if Velazquez did return, he most likely would only be utilized as a pinch hitter or designated hitter on days when he actually would start.
On a hitting end alone, Velazquez could offer the Royals the kind of hitter they are lacking off the bench. When looking at the Statcast metrics of current Royals bench players, Velazquez fares pretty favorably, especially in barrel rate.
Furthermore, in terms of Process+ data, Velazquez was actually showing a positive trend over the course of the season before his demotion, especially in terms of decision value and contact ability.
For a Royals team that is looking for anything hitting-wise to help get them back on track, Velazquez is an easy option who is at least a bit proven this year at the MLB level (unlike the others) and should easily embrace his role as a “hitting only” option off the bench.
Who Would Be the Odd Man Out?
With Maikel Garcia now looking more like a bench player, and Grossman having the ability to play the corner outfield spots, it seems like Adam Frazier would be the odd man out if the Royals decided to bring up Velazquez for the stretch run in September.
Frazier has seen his playing time dwindle since Pham, Gurriel, and Grossman have come to Kansas City. Over the past 14 days, Frazier has only six plate appearances and in that small sample he has a -36 wRC+. For the season, he has a 60 wRC+ and a -0.7 fWAR in 95 games and 268 plate appearances.
Safe to say, Frazier isn’t really offering the Royals much on both the hitting and defensive end (-3.5 Def). Furthermore, his Process+ rolling chart is trending in the opposite direction of Velazquez’s, which isn’t an endorsement in Frazier’s favor.
Now, I understand why Frazier has lasted so long with this team. He offered a lot of veteran intangibles, which this club missed in 2023. I do think he was a player who helped turn around the culture in the clubhouse, and his defensive versatility did help keep Quatraro flexible with his lineups (especially at the beginning of the year when Michael Massey was on the IL).
At the same time, the Royals have more veteran playoff-experienced guys in the clubhouse now with Pham, Gurriel, and Grossman. Kansas City needs a roster that is the most balanced, regardless of status or years in the big leagues. Right now, Frazier is a contact hitter who doesn’t offer much power. The Royals can get that with not just Grossman and Gurriel, but Garcia, Garrett Hampson, and even Dairon Blanco.
Velazquez solves the Royals hitting problem off the bench better than Frazier at this time, even if Velazquez’s 2024 has been a bit disappointing overall after a sensational 2023.
Picollo has shown Royals fans that he’s not Dayton Moore 2.0 by being more transactional and less patient with guys who aren’t performing, regardless of their status in the organization.
As great a clubhouse guy Frazier is, Picollo needs to continue that trend and give this Royals lineup the best chance to succeed for the remainder of September.
Going with Velazquez over Frazier on the roster, even if it means designating Frazier for assignment, is the most logical next step for Picollo and the Royals.
Photo Credit: Jonathan Dyer | USA TODAY Sports
[…] written plenty enough on Nelly on this site, so I’m not surprised by his Statcast metrics in […]
[…] Minor League options and likely would get swooped up by another club if designated for assignment. Velazquez has shown much better patience at the plate since his demotion to Omaha last July. He also has lost some weight this offseason, which may help him tap into his power better in 2025. […]