Seth Lugo is Solidifying His AL Cy Young Case

After blowing a 4-3 lead on Monday, the Royals returned to Yankee Stadium and shut out the Bronx Bombers on Tuesday in a 5-0 win.

Seth Lugo was the main star of this Royals squad on Tuesday night, as he put up one of the best performances of this season and perhaps his career.

Lugo kept a juggernaut Yankees lineup in check through seven innings of work on the mound. He set the tone in the first inning as he not only retired Juan Soto and Aaron Judge but also struck them out quickly, which Brady Singer and the Royals bullpen could not do on Monday night.

The shutout performance boosted Lugo’s record to 16-8 for the season. He also improved his ERA to 2.94 and WHIP to 1.09 in 193 IP. After throwing a career-high 146.1 IP last season, Lugo has thrown 46.9 more innings this season and seems destined to easily cross the 200 IP threshold by the conclusion of the 2024 season.

Despite the boost in workload in Kansas City, he has not slowed down, especially in September. Lugo has a 0.64 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 14 strikeouts, and only one walk and run allowed in 14 IP in two September outings. Safe to say, it’s likely that he will finish with an ERA better than his 3.57 mark in 2023.

However, with a 4.0 fWAR entering Tuesday’s start, is he still running for the AL Cy Young award?

Tonight against the Yankees should’ve solidified his candidacy.

A Look at His Dominance of the Yankees on Tuesday

Lugo was sharp in this one, utilizing all the pitches in his arsenal to succeed against an intimidating Yankees lineup.

For pitchers to succeed against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium, they need to be able to limit hard hits and maximize the called and swinging strikes. Lugo did precisely that based on his exit velocity and CSW data via Savant.

Lugo only allowed an 82.9 average exit velocity on batted balls, and he generated a CSW of 38% overall on the nine pitches he threw on Tuesday night. That is not just a recipe for success but dominance. Lugo was particularly dominant with his cutter, curveball, and four-seamer. They were his most-thrown pitches and most effective offerings on a CSW end.

Here’s a look at his high-spin curveball generating a swinging strikeout of Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 7th inning to end his outing against the Yankees.

What makes Lugo so tough for hitters is that he throws so many different pitches that it’s challenging to prepare for him. So many pitches look similar, which can throw off hitters who may be sitting or looking for one particular pitch to do damage against.

It’s even more challenging for hitters when Lugo floods all edges of the strike zone. Based on his Savant pitch chart and pitch description data, he did that and then some on Tuesday evening, which limited the Yankees lineup to only three hits in the contest.

Royals fans should notice how Lugo keeps the ball up or down and on the zone’s edges against New York. He’s not too middle-middle with his pitches, which keeps Yankees hitters off balance and unable to do damage on hittable pitches in the zone.

Lugo’s pitch description chart has many orange dots in the strike zone, symbolizing called-strikes.

That shows that Yankees hitters weren’t comfortable against Lugo, which is a credit to the 34-year-old right-hander’s effectiveness.

I had some concerns that Lugo (and other Royals starting pitchers) would be wearing down once we entered September. That was mainly fueled by the fact that Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, and Brady Singer hadn’t put up this kind of innings load before (or, in the case of Wacha, a long time ago).

However, not only is the starting rotation showing that it can handle the increase in pitching load in 2024, but it is also proving to be more effective than ever.

That is especially true for Lugo, whose pitch quality, as rated by PLV, is better than ever, especially compared to last season in San Diego. He is also doing this despite throwing more types of pitches in 2024.

Additionally, Lugo has improved the movement of his pitch mix. His induced movement chart via PLV looks a lot different this season than it did in 2023, as seen below in the chart comparison.

Royals fans may notice how “closer” together his pitches are in 2024 compared to 2023. This is encouraging because it means Lugo’s pitches all have similar movement profiles. That makes it harder for hitters to discern pitches from one another when sequenced effectively, leading to strikes or weakly hit balls.

The Yankees have been known for batting around opposing pitchers this year, as they rank 1st in home runs hit and 2nd in OPS.

Unfortunately for Yankees fans, Lugo’s movement profile and pitch quality, which have improved massively from a year ago and are still strong at the end of the season, got the best of New York hitters tonight.

Where Does Lugo Stand in the Cy Young Race?

Today on Twitter, the Royals’ assistant director of PR, Ian Kraft, posted the following document in one of his Tweets, which shared the case for Lugo and Ragans to be considered for the AL Cy Young this season.

The case for Lugo and Ragans as Cy Young candidates is undoubtedly deserved and noteworthy, especially considering how bad the Royals starting pitching has been since the 2015 World Series championship.

While Detroit’s Tarik Skubal is the favorite for the Cy Young award in the American League, Ragans and Lugo aren’t far behind the Detroit lefty, based on fWAR via Fangraphs.

As of Tuesday, Ragans ranks second in the AL with a fWAR of 4.5. Lugo ranks fourth with a fWAR of 4.0, but that was before Tuesday’s outing. He likely will surpass Seattle’s Logan Gilbert on Wednesday morning when Fangraphs updates their metrics.

Ragans and Lugo are still significantly behind Skubal, who has a 2.53 ERA, 208 strikeouts, and a 5.3 fWAR in 174 innings of work this season.

The pair of Royals “aces” can gain some traction with “old school” voters, especially if they keep the solid ERA numbers and can help the Royals clinch a postseason berth. As great as Skubal has been, the Tigers are still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, though they have been surging lately.

Even though Ragans has a higher fWAR and is likely to finish with a better fWAR than Lugo, I think Lugo’s case is more substantial, especially with more traditional voters.

Ragans has better strikeout numbers (10.97 K/9) than Lugo (7.69 K/9 going into Tuesday). However, everything else favors Lugo. Lugo has a better ERA (2.94 to Ragans’ 3.33), more innings (194 to Ragans’ 167.1), and more wins (16 to Ragans’ 11). Even though many baseball fans (including myself) may question those metrics’ merit, they still resonate with “old school” baseball voters.

Thus, Lugo is still in the AL Cy Young race and could sneak away with the award if all the chips fall right. As excellent as Ragans has been in his first entire MLB season, the Cy Young race will end up coming down between Skubal and Lugo over the next two weeks.

Another stellar start or two down the stretch (especially against the Tigers, whom Lugo is scheduled to face following Monday) could give Lugo the momentum he needs to shine in the eyes of baseball writers who believe a winning pitcher with a solid ERA on a playoff team merits the award.

Photo Credit: Vaughn Ridley/GettyImages

6 thoughts on “Seth Lugo is Solidifying His AL Cy Young Case”

  2. Luego has less BB/9 than Ragans, but that may be a credit to Ragans. Luego is not too far ahead in IP… A trait that may swing the Cy Young is how they perform in leverage situations. RISP with less than 2 outs. A really good pitcher will come through when the chips are down. There’s also the perception. Ragans was very good late last year. Lugo may not enjoy such perceptual cushion. Ragans may win it because of consistent excellence.

    1. I think Ragans has the better peripherals, especially when it comes to strikeouts, which is super important in the voting process now. That said, I think if Lugo can boost his Ks, which he has been doing lately, then I think Lugo can solidify the award.

      In leverage situations, I think Lugo has been better this year simply because he can generate groundballs or weak contact at a more frequent rate than Ragans.

Leave a Reply