It’s been a rough stretch for the Kansas City Royals since Vinnie Pasquantino’s thumb injury.
The Royals have lost six in a row after beating the Guardians on August 27th to move into a tie with Cleveland for first in the AL Central (they are on their way to losing seven in a row as they are down 7-1 in the top of the 8th).
Since Pasquantino went down with an injury on August 29th, Kansas City has only scored eight runs and given up 19. It’s been frustrating for Royals fans to watch the club hit daily, as the group has seemed deflated since Vinnie’s injury announcement.
Despite this rough stretch, JJ Picollo and the front office have done all they can to compensate for Vinnie’s loss in the lineup and boost the club in other offensive areas. On Saturday, the Royals picked up three players:
40-year-old Yuli Gurriel in a Minor League transaction with the Braves.
They also acquired Robbie Grossman and Tommy Pham, whom the Royals claimed on waivers before the September 1st deadline (players must be claimed before September 1st to be eligible for the postseason).
In this post, I wanted to focus on Pham and Grossman, who may not help much in the No. 3 spot in the batting order but rather at the leadoff spot. Since the acquisitions were announced, Pham has been in the leadoff spot in every game since Sunday, and Grossman is expected to start at leadoff when the Royals face left-handed starting pitchers.
While the acquisitions don’t help the Royals directly in the wake of Vinnie’s absence, they do add much-needed boosts at the top of the lineup, which may be what the Royals need, considering their struggles this year at the leadoff spot.
Royals Leadoff Hitters Rank Among League’s Worst
According to Fangraphs, Royals leadoff hitters rank last in baseball by a wide margin in most categories.
As of September 3rd, they had a 66 wRC+, .267 wOBA, and .275 OBP. All those marks rank dead last and contributed to the Royals’ inconsistencies in the hitting department in 2024.
Here’s a look at how the Royals leadoff hitters have fared individually at the top of the batting order this season via Fangraphs.
As Royals fans can see above, it’s unsurprising that the Royals’ leadoff hitters have produced a collective wRC+ of 66 this season. Garcia has seen the most leadoff plate appearances, with 467 this year, but he has only produced a wRC+ of 70.
However, it’s not like other internal options have been much better.
Massey has 71 plate appearances as the Royals’ leadoff hitter, and he only has an 88 wRC+. Frazier has the third-most with 57, and he’s been even worse than Garcia with a 57 wRC+. Loftin has had 16 plate appearances in the leadoff spot and has put up a ridiculously poor -66 wRC+ (but 16 PA is a tiny sample).
The Royals’ leading two leadoff hitters (Garcia and Massey) have made excellent contact this season, as they both sport K rates under 17%. Unfortunately, while their contact ability has been above average, their decision-making has not, as seen in this season’s Decision Value+ rolling charts.
Massey has seen some gains in his Decision Value+ data since moving into the leadoff spot. However, he has peaked around the 25th percentile, which is not ideal for a leadoff hitter.
As for Garcia, he showed strong decision-making as the Royals’ leadoff hitter in the first few months of the season. Unfortunately, he has nosedived since the middle of June, with his Decision Value+ hovering around the 25th percentile since the middle of August.
As a result, both have produced mediocre Process+ trends, though Massey’s looks better than Garcia’s due to Massey’s power upside.
Massey and Garcia deserve to be in the Royals lineup regularly (though I’m not sure about “every day” since they have their share of flaws, especially on the power end). They make good contact and have the speed to score runs when they get on base.
Conversely, they probably shouldn’t be leadoff hitters during this stretch run of the season.
What Pham and Grossman Bring to the Leadoff Spot
At the surface level, there’s nothing eye-popping about what Pham and Grossman bring to the Royals lineup.
For the season, Pham is posting a 97 wRC+ in 383 plate appearances, while Grossman has a 92 wRC+ in 207 plate appearances. Both do not offer much on the power end. Pham only has an ISO of .121, while Grossman has a .097 mark.
However, their decision-making and plate discipline skills are a lot more encouraging.
Pham has a BB/K ratio of 0.41, while Grossman has a ratio of 0.64. Both those ratios would rank them in the Top 5 of Royals hitters with ten or more plate appearances this season.
Furthermore, their Decision Value+ metrics have demonstrated excellent trends throughout the season. That makes them ideal candidates for the Royals’ leadoff duties for the remainder of the year.
As Royals fans can see above, Pham has a season Decision Value+ near 120, which ranks him in the 90th percentile of the league. Grossman’s mark is above 110, which puts him above the 75th percentile. Grossman has seen a marked improvement since July after hovering near the league average in this area in June.
The Royals need that kind of decision-making from the top spot of the batting order.
Pham and Grossman are hitters who will work counts and not chase themselves out of at-bats. Furthermore, they have demonstrated solid processes overall this year, despite their erosion in some natural tools like power (which makes sense considering Pham is 36 and Grossman is 35).
Look below at Pham and Grossman’s Process+ rolling charts this season for the context of their plate processes.
The best attribute of Pham and Grossman’s hitting is their decision-making skills, which sharply contrasts what we have seen from Massey and Garcia, especially lately.
Pham and Grossman won’t solve all the Royals’ hitting woes for the remainder of the season.
They need someone to fill the No. 3 hole in the lineup, and I’m not sure Massey is the answer.
The Royals’ second baseman is hitless in that spot of the batting order this season, and he hasn’t shown the power lately to justify a place in a critical run-producing spot in the batting order. Massey has better contact skills than MJ Melendez, who has the power to handle the three-spot but doesn’t make enough consistent contact to be deemed dependable in that spot between Witt and Salvy.
Then again, though, Melendez has been trending in the right direction regarding power AND contact ability, so perhaps Melendez can factor in that three-hole discussion sooner rather than later.
While the third spot in the batting order remains a mystery for Matt Quatraro, his decision at leadoff should be easier based on the data.
Regularly putting Pham and Grossman at the top of the batting order (Pham against righties; Grossman against lefties) is a step in the right direction and should help the Royals in their quest for a return to the postseason.
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
[…] Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel, acquired after the Pasquantino injury, have had their…. Unfortunately, beyond Witt and Salvy, the Royals have failed to get much help from their regulars in the lineup (nine players have wRC+ marks under 100 this mark, and one, Paul DeJong, has a negative mark). […]
[…] recent offensive struggles have coincided with the acquisitions of hitters Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel, who were added to the Royals roster shortly before the August 31st deadline. While the three […]
[…] picked up Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off of waivers and signed Yuli Gurriel on a Minor League contract (he was on the Braves’ Triple-A roster). […]